Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ELD - Elders Limited

Jump to new
skyQuake said:
Lucky i shorted before that iceberg came in at 19!
That'll be quite the hurdle. Yesterday's seller is back now in disguise
Click to expand...

Who let you short ELD? If it's pre-selling for SPP, how much would you do it for?

Some rumour today about Chinese flirting with HiFert. If they get a good price, who knows.
 
I subscribe to a lot of the newsletters and the "experts" are divided on going for this
eg.
Rivkin - yes
Huntley - no
Eureka - each way bet?
Dyer - "the sky is going to fall in" so why do anything
Dent, Mcclellan and a few others in the same vein

etc. etc..

what is the opinion here?
 
surfziggy said:
SKC - Looks like he's not the only one shorting the hell out of it:

http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

6% of the stock is shorted according to the ASX page!
Click to expand...

Nice. Thanks for the info.

Everyone's just shorting it now to profit from their SPP. With the share price the way it is and the various brokers being unsure about the placement, there is a good chance that one would get all the shares he/she apply for.

This mean the shorting pressure will definitely end at 15c, and there will be a huge amount of crossing on the first day of trade.

6% of stock is nothing, considering that the number of shares will increase by 4 fold...
 
Spent the weekend reading all the ELD stuff.

Based on proforma NPAT of ~$50m in FY10, and a historical PE ratio of 15-16, the share price post re-cap "should" be about 18-19c.

But there are lots of assumptions and faith required to believe that NPAT figure. Many of the factors are beyond the control of the management. What concerns me most are projected earnings from automotive and forestry. Both dog sectors that may get even worse. Their rural services probably has the most upside, not to mention potential takeover / consolidation.

The new CEO has done a great job saving the sinking ship, but it's not plain sailing yet.
 
skc said:
6% of stock is nothing, considering that the number of shares will increase by 4 fold...
Click to expand...

Agreed - but compared to all the other securities it's an order of magnitude higher. I wonder how many people are also short via unhedged CFDs?
 
skyQuake said:
Still shortable under IG: http://www.igmarkets.com.au/content/files/List-of-shortable-stocks.pdf

Imo the CFD providers still have to report net short sales to the ASX . So the ASX thing should be fairly accurate.

Instos got their shares today. Buy at your peril!
Maybe once the instos get out it will put in a bounce, but I would certainly stay out s/t. (plus the avalanche when SPPs sell!)
Click to expand...

Thanks SkyQuake. I am pretty sure I couldn't short ELD on IG a few days ago.

You just made me a few $$. I think I will hedge ~20% of my subscription - I doubt the scaleback would be that bad. And the rest of my subscription can sustain 5% below the issue price of 15c. Nice.

Now I just have to join the bloody queue... only 13m or so shares in front of me at 18c.
 
skc said:
Thanks SkyQuake. I am pretty sure I couldn't short ELD on IG a few days ago.

You just made me a few $$. I think I will hedge ~20% of my subscription - I doubt the scaleback would be that bad. And the rest of my subscription can sustain 5% below the issue price of 15c. Nice.

Now I just have to join the bloody queue... only 13m or so shares in front of me at 18c.
Click to expand...

Now only 7.8m shares in front!

I can understand all the shorts, but I don't understand the heavy buys on the ladder... Almost 60m shares on the buy side down to 16c, but 20m on the sell side for the next 4 ticks.

Very fascinating. I wish I've done more research on how prices behave immediately leading up to SPP of such size.
 
skc said:
Now only 7.8m shares in front!

I can understand all the shorts, but I don't understand the heavy buys on the ladder... Almost 60m shares on the buy side down to 16c, but 20m on the sell side for the next 4 ticks.

Very fascinating. I wish I've done more research on how prices behave immediately leading up to SPP of such size.
Click to expand...

Its more Insto allocation relation than just SPP imo. The instos got their placement shares today, so I think that would be part of the early selloff.
 
It is closed at .185 and volume is also pretty good. Today lots of buy and buyers number is also double. I hope it will bounce back soon.
Still holding ELD bought at .235.
 
Still plenty of buyers lining up to take the share up to high of 20c.

Roughly 70m shares on the buy side for 4 levels vs 54m on the sell.

Still have no idea who's doing all this buying and selling.
 
It is bouncing back. Now it is only 1:34 and volume is 123 m:There are some unusual trades.
10:02 1,000,000 @ .180c
10:02 3,961,943 @ .180c
10:08 2,200,000 @ .185c
10:08 1,000,000 @ .185C
10.54 6,000,000 @ .190C
11:23 1,000,000 @ .185
11:45 1,000,000 @ .185C
11:50 7,000,000 @ .190
11:51 1,736,485 @ .190 C
11:51 1,000,000 @ .190C
11:51 1,000,000 @190 C
11:51 1,500,000 @ . 190 C
11:53 2,552,005 @ . 195C
11:54 1,000,000 @ .195C
11:58 1,000,000 @ .195
12:12 1,000,000 @ .195C
12:13 1,500,000 @ .195
12:16 1,000,000 @ .195C
12:53 8,000,000 @ .190C
12:55 8,000,000 @ . 192C

I hope soon it will come back. Your comments are appreciated. I am much worried because I bought it at .235c.
 
Albi said:
It is bouncing back. Now it is only 1:34 and volume is 123 m:There are some unusual trades.
10:02 1,000,000 @ .180c
10:02 3,961,943 @ .180c
10:08 2,200,000 @ .185c
10:08 1,000,000 @ .185C
10.54 6,000,000 @ .190C
11:23 1,000,000 @ .185
11:45 1,000,000 @ .185C
11:50 7,000,000 @ .190
11:51 1,736,485 @ .190 C
11:51 1,000,000 @ .190C
11:51 1,000,000 @190 C
11:51 1,500,000 @ . 190 C
11:53 2,552,005 @ . 195C
11:54 1,000,000 @ .195C
11:58 1,000,000 @ .195
12:12 1,000,000 @ .195C
12:13 1,500,000 @ .195
12:16 1,000,000 @ .195C
12:53 8,000,000 @ .190C
12:55 8,000,000 @ . 192C

I hope soon it will come back. Your comments are appreciated. I am much worried because I bought it at .235c.
Click to expand...

I don't know what the true worth of the company is, but I do think that the trading between now and the new SPP shares being issued will have a mind of its own due to these events as opposed to a reflection of the true worth.

True worth may be higher, lower or same... and to some, it doesn't matter what the true worth was, as price is the only reality.
 
The SPP is oversubscribed. Looks like if u applied fo 20k u would get it. What about if u applied for more than 20k? Would u be guaranteed of atleast 20 k or would it be similar to the Santos and AWB SPP where they give u a certain amount depending on your original holding.
 
Anyone else had their Bpay transfer rejected even though it was put thru the day before closing?

Using the new Commsec cash management a/c - rung them as they dont reply to emails for a few days and they say there is a problem.
 
freebird54 said:
Anyone else had their Bpay transfer rejected even though it was put thru the day before closing?

Using the new Commsec cash management a/c - rung them as they dont reply to emails for a few days and they say there is a problem.
Click to expand...

Hi freebird

After reading your post I was worried, so I checked my bpay transfer that I sent through on the 21/10 and it looks to be accepted (funds taken) I used Commbank.

I hope that you can sort it out.

Cheers
 
freebird54 said:
Anyone else had their Bpay transfer rejected even though it was put thru the day before closing?

Using the new Commsec cash management a/c - rung them as they dont reply to emails for a few days and they say there is a problem.
Click to expand...

Hi freebird I had a takeover offer form rejected on another company 2 years ago, the problem was the fax i used to send the form didn't print clearly but my phone number was clear. The broker Etrade didn't ring to notify me of the problem. I asked for a copy of the form and took the matter to head office as my phone number was clear. "Etrade coverd all loses incurred a substantial amount".

I know a Bpay transfer and a takeover offer form are diffrent but it may be worth asking for a copy of Bpay transfer rejection.
 
Re: ELD - Elders consolidation

Todays announcement
Refocused, Reorganised, Recapitalised

From 819.2million shares to 4,486 million shares by 2 November (Consolidation likely).
IMO a 5 to 1 consolidation that would bring the shares back to the 800million mark at .15cents = .75cents a share a more tradeble price, and more attractive as a takeover target.
 

Similar threads

System
BIG - Burrendong Minerals
Replies
1
Views
331
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
E
WJL - Webjet Group
Replies
17
Views
1K
DannyB0000
DannyB0000
System
CCL - Cuscal Limited
Replies
7
Views
696
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
AXG - Axon Graphite
Replies
0
Views
534
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
grubalo
Help for (Humble) New traders: Best stocks to invest $1000
2
Replies
23
Views
1K
divs4ever
divs4ever
Top