Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

It also appears the successful nations had solid pandemic strategies ready to roll

Something I've encountered in a very different (non-medical) context is that there's an Australian cultural thing which basically doesn't like planning for "what if?" scenarios.

I've done a fair bit of that at work in the past and I soon realised it was best to not mention what I was doing to anyone not involved or needing to know and especially not mention it in social conversation outside work. People just don't see the point in planning for something that hasn't happened yet, or at least not recently, and doesn't seem to be an immediate threat.

The point of such planning of course is that when the proverbial does hit the fan well then that's not a good time to be planning anything at all. It's far better to be able to get the previous planning out, which has all the details of everything already in it, and just adapt that to the actual situation being faced.

There's a value in knowing that you can do x, and having a list of everything that needs to happen in order to do it, even if it has never been necessary. It's still worth knowing that it's possible, how it can be done, what it would achieve and so on. It's another tool in the box if needed, a tool that's already been thoroughly investigated and about which there's no uncertainty amid the crisis. It's ready to be applied if needed.

Asian culture seems far more amenable to that sort of planning than Western culture.

The other interesting difference between China's initial response and ours was that they immediately ramped up production of every medical requirement to meet Wuhan needs. We ramped up an economic solution for a recessionary economy instead.

If you don't own it and have it in your possession then you don't really control it.

Australia's reliance on others to produce practically everything of a manufactured nature has bitten hard on this one and hopefully the lesson is learned. When push comes to shove in an emergency a contract for someone on the other side of the world to supply something is worthless in practice. In the absence of being a serious military or economic power, which Australia most certainly isn't, it doesn't really work and even then it's risky.

The best option is production locally with the ability to ramp up.

The second best option is a great big stockpile. It's finite but at least it's a big stockpile.

Relying on someone else to supply in a crisis? That's gambling basically.......

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Oh yes the Asian example. That would be the one where they lock down the city but allow
citizens to still travel to other countries?

Didn't 5 million exit Wuhan before being locked down?

I find it very hard to believe its over for China.

John Hempton made a further blog, 30 March

I don't easily believe Chinese statistics - especially regarding something as awful as COVID-19. Believe your eyes and common sense over Chinese statistics.
When China (officially) had 19 deaths they started building massive field hospitals. Believe what you see (the hospitals) but take the 19 deaths as a rather dubious estimate (as per that time).

By contrast when the Chinese Government say COVID-19 is highly controlled in China you can believe them because there are Westerners and Western companies throughout China and what you can see (Shanghai and Chongqing as functional cities) comports with the statements and the actions of the Chinese Government.

My general view: watch what the Chinese Government does - rather than what they say.

his summary:
You can see the Chinese take COVID-19 very seriously indeed.

We can conclude that
a. The Chinese have seen the virus. They think they know what it can do. They are scared. Do not believe the Chinese numbers. The truth is much worse. But believe the Chinese actions. They think fear is appropriate.
b. The Chinese have proven that a super-hard lockdown lasting seven weeks in affected areas 2.5 weeks in Shanghai etc can work. Their major cities have low virus load and major Western cities have not.
c. The Chinese Government are super-scared of reintroducing it.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2020/03/

 

[rederob]

Something I've encountered in a very different (non-medical) context is that there's an Australian cultural thing which basically doesn't like planning for "what if?" scenarios.

I've done a fair bit of that at work in the past and I soon realised it was best to not mention what I was doing to anyone not involved or needing to know and especially not mention it in social conversation outside work. People just don't see the point in planning for something that hasn't happened yet, or at least not recently, and doesn't seem to be an immediate threat.

The point of such planning of course is that when the proverbial does hit the fan well then that's not a good time to be planning anything at all. It's far better to be able to get the previous planning out, which has all the details of everything already in it, and just adapt that to the actual situation being faced.

There's a value in knowing that you can do x, and having a list of everything that needs to happen in order to do it, even if it has never been necessary. It's still worth knowing that it's possible, how it can be done, what it would achieve and so on. It's another tool in the box if needed. Asian culture seems far more amenable to that sort of planning than Western culture.



If you don't own it and have it in your possession then you don't really control it.

Australia's reliance on others to produce practically everything of a manufactured nature has bitten hard on this one and hopefully the lesson is learned. When push comes to shove in an emergency a contract for someone on the other side of the world to supply something is worthless in practice. In the absence of being a serious military or economic power, which Australia most certainly isn't, it doesn't really work and even then it's risky.

The best option is production locally with the ability to ramp up.

The second best option is a great big stockpile. It's finite but at least it's a big stockpile.

Relying on someone else to supply in a crisis? That's gambling basically.......

Points taken.
However, what exactly did our government do to source local manufacturers who could "adapt" to produce what we were clearly going to need?
A South Australian company is only now responding to the challenge of producing face masks, and I am sure many other examples could be found.
Quite a few smaller breweries are now refocusing to make hand sanitiser, but it's flying off the shelves at a ridiculous price! Of all the things I would prefer in the present health crisis is the ability to literally keep my hands clean - there are no pockets in a shroud, so governments handouts are not going to improve my health.
The other galling feature of the government response was to overlook pouring tens of millions into research laboratories, so private donations and crowd funding are instead being relied on. Sadly we again have science taking a back seat to economics. Imagine the new job creation that would have been possible in this sector and the emergent need to continue this type of work.
We should respond to a health crisis with health measures, and the resources to facilitate putting them in place. We appear to forgotten this.
I'm off to fill a prescription at our chemist shortly and their security guard is at the door with a hand sanitising bottle at the ready, ensuring everyone will be safe to handle items. The nearby shopping centre still has nothing in place for the thousands doing their supermarket shopping each day.
Little wonder we are struggling to get our numbers down.

 

[lusk]

The other galling feature of the government response was to overlook pouring tens of millions into research laboratories, so private donations and crowd funding are instead being relied on.

Because there would be no incentive for a Lab to come up with a vaccine if the government already has given them a handout.

If government money would ensure solutions every invention would come from China.

 

[rederob]

Because there would be no incentive for a Lab to come up with a vaccine if the government already has given them a handout.

If government money would ensure solutions every invention would come from China.

You really have no idea why people do science, do you!

 

[SirRumpole]

Relying on someone else to supply in a crisis? That's gambling basically.......

A perfect example of the above.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-chinese-ppe-border-force-intercepted/12085908

 

[sptrawler]

A perfect example of the above.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-chinese-ppe-border-force-intercepted/12085908

That is one hell of a wake up call, shonky ppe and test kits, brilliant.

From the article:
The ABC has learnt that in recent weeks, Australian Border Force (ABF) officers have intercepted several deliveries of personal protective equipment (PPE) that have been found to be counterfeit or otherwise faulty.

One law enforcement official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, estimated the ABF had already seized 800,000 masks with a combined value of more than $1.2 million on the Australian market.

Several European governments have rejected Chinese-made equipment designed to combat the coronavirus outbreak in recent days.
Thousands of testing kits and medical masks are below standard or defective, according to authorities in Spain, Turkey and the Netherlands.

The Dutch health ministry announced it had recalled 600,000 face masks on March 28.

The equipment arrived from a Chinese manufacturer on March 21 and had already been distributed to frontline medical teams.

Dutch officials said the masks did not fit and their filters did not work as intended, even though they had a quality certificate.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying has rejected suggestions the country's exports were faulty.

"A large number of Chinese manufacturers are working around the clock to help other countries save lives," she said yesterday.

 

[Smurf1976]

In just seven days, at 2:30 p.m. on March 27, GM's first prototype mask rolled off the line on equipment that did not exist before.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/31/gm-face-masks-ventec-warren/5097793002/

So it took General Motors just a week to get something going with face mask production, a product they've zero prior experience with, and they're now improving the production process and ramping it up.

Hence my point that there's massive value in a country having a diverse manufacturing industry. If you've got factories and you've got a skilled workforce then you can do a lot of things including, among others, hastily building new equipment to make a different product should the need arise.

Likewise Rolls Royce, Dyson and all sorts of others are having a go at making things needed to deal with this crisis. Things which those companies have zero prior experience at making but they do have a lot of machinery, they do have a lot of skilled workers and so on and that creates the potential to make things happen.

I do hope Australia learns at least one lesson from all this. Stand on our own two feet.

 

[jbocker]

'Twiggy' Forrest's $160m China deal to bring lifesaving supplies to Australia
Well we will soon see (?again?) for ourselves if the quality rumours are true. If they are, I wonder what Twiggy might ship back to them wrt Iron Ore.

 

[barney]

'Twiggy' Forrest's $160m China deal to bring lifesaving supplies to Australia
Well we will soon see (?again?) for ourselves if the quality rumours are true. If they are, I wonder what Twiggy might ship back to them wrt Iron Ore.

Twiggy … one word ... Legend!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The NBN, which is now available to 95 per cent of Australian households, has seen data demand increase by more than 70 to 80 per cent during daytime hours, compared to figures calculated at the end of February.

Prior to COVID-19, the NBN network processed about 5 terabits per second (Tbps) from 8am to 5pm. On Friday, March 27, data demand peaked at 9.2Tbps.

"It's a significant lift, [but] it still remains well below the evening busy hours when data consumption on the network is at its highest," an NBN spokesman said. "Between 8pm and 10pm, it has increased by around 15 per cent to 12.4Tbps, as of 9pm on Friday.

Key points:

• Australians are accessing the internet from home in record numbers, causing up to an 80 per cent increase in demand
• Canberra and Melbourne are experiencing the worst average internet congestion, according to a report from Monash University
• The NBN says it has been preparing for the increased demand, and its network is "performing well in all cities"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...peeds-covid19-affects-data-downloads/12107334

 

[IFocus]

Something I've encountered in a very different (non-medical) context is that there's an Australian cultural thing which basically doesn't like planning for "what if?" scenarios.

I've done a fair bit of that at work in the past and I soon realised it was best to not mention what I was doing to anyone not involved or needing to know and especially not mention it in social conversation outside work. People just don't see the point in planning for something that hasn't happened yet, or at least not recently, and doesn't seem to be an immediate threat.

The point of such planning of course is that when the proverbial does hit the fan well then that's not a good time to be planning anything at all. It's far better to be able to get the previous planning out, which has all the details of everything already in it, and just adapt that to the actual situation being faced.

There's a value in knowing that you can do x, and having a list of everything that needs to happen in order to do it, even if it has never been necessary. It's still worth knowing that it's possible, how it can be done, what it would achieve and so on. It's another tool in the box if needed, a tool that's already been thoroughly investigated and about which there's no uncertainty amid the crisis. It's ready to be applied if needed.

Asian culture seems far more amenable to that sort of planning than Western culture.



If you don't own it and have it in your possession then you don't really control it.

Australia's reliance on others to produce practically everything of a manufactured nature has bitten hard on this one and hopefully the lesson is learned. When push comes to shove in an emergency a contract for someone on the other side of the world to supply something is worthless in practice. In the absence of being a serious military or economic power, which Australia most certainly isn't, it doesn't really work and even then it's risky.

The best option is production locally with the ability to ramp up.

The second best option is a great big stockpile. It's finite but at least it's a big stockpile.

Relying on someone else to supply in a crisis? That's gambling basically.......

Used to do the same "disaster recovery planning" when X blows up what are you going to do and how long is it going to take. One of the few processors where I don't remember failing to get the funds.

Also wasn't driven by owners just allowed me to sleep at night

 

[Smurf1976]

Used to do the same "disaster recovery planning" when X blows up what are you going to do and how long is it going to take. One of the few processors where I don't remember failing to get the funds.

Yep - management always understands that sort of thing.

For the average person though "cross that bridge when we come to it" seems to be the general approach. Hence certain things never stated publicly - tell someone the plan exists and they assume there's an expected need to use it which would likely start a panic.

 

[qldfrog]

Am i the only one to be in disbelief at this battle vs import of Chinese masks
Union refusing to unload some in a port....
Australian standard issues on others
Some are counterfeit..so instead of having a mask marked 3M, it is a M3
Not in Australia..or faulty: aka has not passed the Australian certification..
Back off masks, we are proud aussies and will die standing proud faceless
As a result, no one wear any mask, even masks as basic as dust mask would be useful->
* you can not touch your face
*it will stop a sneeze droplet
And if it is not 99.99% efficient, it is still incredibly efficient as opposed to...nothing
No, you do not want to wear one of those intubing a patient in an ICU but you could use it doing shopping
Especially if everyone is wearing one.
in a month time, we will send cargo plane to china to get anything we can put our hands on.. France and Italy are doing it
What a shame,a whole society falling under its own mass of regulations on regulations
This crisis is quite a demonstration of all what we have wrong

 

[Smurf1976]

Am i the only one to be in disbelief at this battle vs import of Chinese masks

If it was up to me then I'd be making sure everyone knew that we'd been sent crap quality goods but I wouldn't refuse to accept them given the circumstances.

People need to know because some still have their heads in the sand over that sort of issue.

We need to accept them though because we have no sensible choice really.

 

[qldfrog]

We need to accept them though because we have no sensible choice really

Exactly, beggars can not be choosers
In normal circumstances, sure, but it also means the mask factory takes the time to register certification etc
Most of Chinese massive current production was started from scratch in the last 3 months.Thanks God they did not wait for a certification process....
Next Australia will prevent isolation suits..that i do not see used on the west much, to reduce plastic consumption and favour reused ones
By the way, great move these reused plastic bags in the supermarket, what a massive cause of cross contamination..dumb and dumber
Save the turtle, kill your nana

 

[Smurf1976]

By the way, great move these reused plastic bags in the supermarket, what a massive cause of cross contamination..dumb and dumber

It was always a case of fix one problem but cause another.

Plastic itself wasn't the problem but the idiots who let the bags blow away and end up in the ocean are a problem definitely.

We've fixed that and now have people sitting bags on the counter which have had the dog sleeping on them, been sitting on the ground or are otherwise somewhat filthy. Then you sit your bags on that very same counter......

As with most of this stuff, fixing one problem is not without downsides in other areas.

 

[matty77]

Always worth finding out where those masks you are wearing are from...

 

[rederob]

Always worth finding out where those masks you are wearing are from...

Versus elsewhere...

 

[Humid]

https://www.google.com.au/search?cl...ient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#imgrc=hwzxNnFMy1LNJM:

This is how we operate in mining
PPE is the last line of defence