Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[againsthegrain]

I should have said OVERNIGHT.
Trump can now say he leads China in something.
The issue will be if US markets react tonight our time to a clear failure of policy to quash COVID-19 spread. By then there will be even more damning statistics.

No idea how credible this article is, but if there is some truth to it Trump still has alot to catch up on

https://www.breitbart.com/national-...-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/

 

[mcgrath111]

The major indices may be increasing for now, but I cannot possible see how we don't go down further.

Buyers beware!

 

[rederob]

No idea how credible this article is, but if there is some truth to it Trump still has alot to catch up on

https://www.breitbart.com/national-...-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/

Just be aware that there are about 200 million more cell phone accounts than there are people in China.
Aside from that Breitbart's track record on China is as dodgy as some of the other conspiracy theories here.

 

[spooly74]

China controls its internal affairs with an iron fist. But you have confused this with China meeting its international obligations and reporting an "unknown" disease when they realised they had something very different on their hands.

When the dust settles that timeline will be examined closely. Why was the US the first to shut down travel from China on Feb 1st and not the Chinese themselves prior? Patient zero can apparently be tracked back to early/mid December.

As to the WHO tweet, read it carefully and compare it with all its other advice. Note also that the WHO issued the same advice in relation to South Korea in January, so it was hardly playing favourites. The WHO did not say it was unnecessary to adopt public health measures in relation to travel and that's why South Korea adopted point of entry testing when they did.
Remember that it was not until well into February that the highly infectious nature of COVID-19 became apparent. Early advice was probably conditioned on the fact that previous corona viruses like SARS and MERS were not easily contractable.

SARS & MERS only became transmissible a few days after the patient was showing severe symptoms. This was clearly not the case with Covid at the time.
Over 40 countries had restricted travel from China at the time of that tweet.

 

[SirRumpole]

Insurance company doing it's bit for the cause...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...exclude-people-who-die-from-covid-19/12093542

 

[moXJO]

Post went weird

 

[rederob]

When the dust settles that timeline will be examined closely. Why was the US the first to shut down travel from China on Feb 1st and not the Chinese themselves prior? Patient zero can apparently be tracked back to early/mid December.


SARS & MERS only became transmissible a few days after the patient was showing severe symptoms. This was clearly not the case with Covid at the time.
Over 40 countries had restricted travel from China at the time of that tweet.

First, the timeline will not change, so what will be examined?
Second, many countries restricted travel from China, yet few enacted any other testing regime from international travellers. On the other hand China was providing its best information to other nations where passengers had an identifiable prior Wuhan presence.
"Patient zero" in Wuhan may go back to November, whereas patient zero to the UK in mid January may have contracted the virus in Austria. This Austrian town now has hundreds of traceable cases attributed to it throughout Europe.

The sad reality of hindsight is that while we were concentrating on the "known' - ie Wuhan - we completely dropped the ball on arrivals from all other countries.

COVID-19 seems able to spread widely asymtomatically, and this has not been the cases with previous corona viruses. This is a benefit of hindsight issue. If you think treating doctors and staff in Wuhan's hospitals were willingly going to allow themselves to get sick and die, then it becomes a plausible explanation. However I doubt that makes any sense.

 

[moXJO]

There are widespread conspiracy theories that China hid this disease from the world. There is absolutely no evidence this is true. From advising WHO on 31 December 2019, and WHO immediately passing this on to all nations, South Korea by 3 January 2020 - yes, just 3 days later - had implemented quarantine and screening measures for travellers from Wuhan at their points of entry. Yet, despite full knowledge of COVID-19's high infection rate we had NSW letting passengers off cruise ships without health checks over 2 months later.
I also know little was occurring at our airports as on 7 March I collected my friend (returning from SE Asia) from Brisbane Airport. I mention the date because on 22 March I first discovered you could search flight numbers to see if anyone on a particular flight had subsequently tested positive. It turns out my friend sat in the exact same seat number as a person who did test positive and was on the same flight number the previous day. It may have been a different plane - I do not know. Clearly it was over 2 weeks ago and I have no health issues, and neither does my friend, who is an "essential services worker." Neither of us are young, so we sighed in relief.

Everyone knows the worst for us is yet to come. Some are saying we know we should have done x, y and z with the benefit of hindsight. Except that the advice of true experts in disease control is not being followed, and the obvious lessons of what has been shown to work overseas are not being adopted quickly and, in some cases, not at all.

Once again wrong....

This timeline, compiled from information reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and other sources, shows that China's cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus lasted about three weeks.

Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.

Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.

Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.

Dec. 30:

• Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
• Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
• Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.

Dec. 31:

• Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus' spread.
• China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.

Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.

• An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples.

Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.

Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.

Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.

Jan. 11–17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.

Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus."

Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.

Jan. 18:

• The Wuhan Health Commission announces four new cases.
• Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck.

Jan. 19: Beijing sends epidemiologists to Wuhan.

Jan. 20:

• The first case announced in South Korea.
• Zhong Nanshan, a top Chinese doctor who is helping to coordinate the coronavirus response, announces the virus can be passed between people.

Jan. 21:

• The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms the first coronavirus case in the United States.
• CCP flagship newspaper People’s Daily mentions the coronavirus epidemic and Xi's actions to fight it for the first time.
• China's top political commission in charge of law and order warns that “anyone who deliberately delays and hides the reporting of [virus] cases out of his or her own self-interest will be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity."

Jan. 23: Wuhan and three other cities are put on lockdown. Right around this time, approximately 5 million people leave the city without being screened for the illness.

Jan. 24–30: China celebrates the Lunar New Year holiday. Hundreds of millions of people are in transit around the country as they visit relatives.

Jan. 24: China extends the lockdown to cover 36 million people and starts to rapidly build a new hospital in Wuhan. From this point, very strict measures continue to be implemented around the country for the rest of the epidemic.

The bottom line: China is now trying to create a narrative that it's an example of how to handle this crisis when in fact its early actions led to the virus spreading around the globe.

 

[Smurf1976]

Really ? Qld included?

Agreed that Qld seems somewhat less enthusiastic than others at least thus far.

 

[spooly74]

COVID-19 seems able to spread widely asymtomatically, and this has not been the cases with previous corona viruses. This is a benefit of hindsight issue.

Perhaps, I guess it depends on whether it'll possible to find out what China knew and when they knew it... iron fist et all.

The sad reality of hindsight is that while we were concentrating on the "known' - ie Wuhan - we completely dropped the ball on arrivals from all other countries.

Agreed.

Looking forward, given that there's been great success with treating patients with the Malaria and other combinations of drugs in the past few weeks and that it looks like 90% of patients have mild symptoms or completly asymtomatic.
Does this need to be a long drawn out event ie: heard 6 months mentioned.
Controlling the death rate imo is the most important factor.
If we see this flatten oven the next few days like I think & hope.
Is there an argument to let the herd get the virus given it mild/asymtomatic nature for most, while continuing the lockdown on the vulnerable of society, perhaps employing those with antibodies to care and offer services.
God knows how many people may already be carrying anti bodies. Also, I've read that the virus is mutating slowly so a vaccine may be available much earlier than anticipated.

 

[sptrawler]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...stralian-assets-20200326-p54e3z.html#comments

All part of the plan.

There go the toilet paper manufacturers. Lol

 

[Smurf1976]

The sad reality of hindsight is that while we were concentrating on the "known' - ie Wuhan - we completely dropped the ball on arrivals from all other countries.

If we'd firmly slammed the door shut on all arrivals from China, or anyone who had been to China in the past month, the moment Wuhan was locked down then we almost certainly wouldn't have this disaster that's unfolding right now.

Australia has been trapped basically. Far too dependent on a single foreign country and the trade in coal, gas, iron and "education" and unable to stand up for itself.

Solution = diversity. We need a much broader economic base and we need a much broader range of countries we trade with. And there's nothing wrong with reasonable amounts of industry protection as a balance to those who cheat via low wages, ongoing human rights abuses, currency manipulation and so on.

In the long term we'll almost certainly see at least some move toward greater local reliance after the virus itself is sorted so invest with that in mind.

 

[jbocker]

I should have said OVERNIGHT.
Trump can now say he leads China in something.
The issue will be if US markets react tonight our time to a clear failure of policy to quash COVID-19 spread. By then there will be even more damning statistics.

From the great thread service by @bigdog NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:' along with great commentary we learn 3 straight days of gains! I am astounded by this the USA, are heading for horrendously cataclysmic numbers of deaths, which surely will smash the market again. I cannot understand that lack of foresight when these statistics are so easily for-seeable. Soon, maybe even Mondays numbers, may prove to be the worst in history. USA will be overtaking China Italy numbers at an unbelievable rate.

 

[Knobby22]

From the great thread service by @bigdog NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:' along with great commentary we learn 3 straight days of gains! I am astounded by this the USA, are heading for horrendously cataclysmic numbers of deaths, which surely will smash the market again. I cannot understand that lack of foresight when these statistics are so easily for-seeable. Soon, maybe even Mondays numbers, may prove to be the worst in history. USA will be overtaking China Italy numbers at an unbelievable rate.

Nah, Trumps doing great! America is showing the world how to do handle it! Even in Australia on the Trump thread you have people saying this.
And anyway, it's all China's fault and; as some in the USA media have stated; older people should be willing to risk losing their life to help the USA economy.

 

[Smurf1976]

I am astounded by this the USA, are heading for horrendously cataclysmic numbers of deaths, which surely will smash the market again. I cannot understand that lack of foresight when these statistics are so easily for-seeable.

I've bought some shares but the intent is to trade the bounce.

That said, I intentionally only bought things I'd be happy to hold long term just in case - never know how things could unfold.

 

[spooly74]

Nah, Trumps doing great! America is showing the world how to do handle it! Even in Australia on the Trump thread you have people saying this.

Noting sarcasim aside Being the 1st to shut down travel from China deserves credit, no matter your opinion of the man. Possibly saved thousands.

And anyway, it's all China's fault and; as some in the USA media have stated; older people should be willing to risk losing their life to help the USA economy.

You can't be serious, Knobby, have you seen this?
Source?

 

[rederob]

If we'd firmly slammed the door shut on all arrivals from China, or anyone who had been to China in the past month, the moment Wuhan was locked down then we almost certainly wouldn't have this disaster that's unfolding right now.

My suspicion is that even in January it would have been too late.
Moreover, based on infection rates and sheer international travel numbers, the third iteration is likely to have had no knowledge of a person who has travelled to China (or Korea, or Thailand) and was the carrier.
We did not put in place (any or) reasonable detection measures at our points of entry, and we still do not have an inadequate testing regime.

My personal view is that our likely saviour in months to come will not be in a vaccine but, instead, via antibody self testing kits that should be available. I know a manufacturer in Ireland was shipping such kits internationally a fortnight ago, so there is no secret to what is involved. Seems just a matter of getting a product approved locally and mass production put in place.
In the meantime any number of existing drugs may be found effective in treating serious cases of COVID-19 such that it's death rate falls in line with that of the common flu.

 

[qldfrog]

Agreed that Qld seems somewhat less enthusiastic than others at least thus far.

on Queensland situation regarding schools:
I quote:
Schools in Queensland will have no students from Monday - except for the children who do attend - as fears of a major cluster of coronavirus cases grow.
Really, I know I am not English as first language but what the hell is this type of recommendation?
They won't have students, just children ROL
I know they mean: closed unless you have no choice and we provide childcare support but still..
These are the people I have to trust to lead us across these tumultuous times, as the Left so proudly used to say:
Do not blame me, I did not vote for her

 

[basilio]

on Queensland situation regarding schools:
I quote:
Schools in Queensland will have no students from Monday - except for the children who do attend - as fears of a major cluster of coronavirus cases grow.
Really, I know I am not English as first language but what the hell is this type of recommendation?
They won't have students, just children ROL
I know they mean: closed unless you have no choice and we provide childcare support but still..
These are the people I have to trust to lead us across these tumultuous times, as the Left so proudly used to say:
Do not blame me, I did not vote for her

It does make sense from a teaching and bigger picture POV.
It is impossible for many health workers to go to work if they have school age children. You can't leave them at home. You can't ask their grandparents to mind them.

So much smaller numbers of children at school can be given far more space and particular programs suited to the situation. Not ideal but workable.

________________________________________________________
The overall advice is to keep people as isolated as possible. But no-one believes you can do for everyone all the time. So the objective is to minimise interaction and keep it as safe as possible. That can work with a far smaller number of children in a school.

 

[Knobby22]

Noting sarcasim aside Being the 1st to shut down travel from China deserves credit, no matter your opinion of the man. Possibly saved thousands.


You can't be serious, Knobby, have you seen this?
Source?

Singapore was first not USA.

Two different examples, you can search for others:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fox-news-contributor-on-putting-lives-of-old-people-at-risk-to-save-the-economy-its-an-entirely-reasonable-viewpoint-2020-03-25

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/24/covid-19-texas-official-suggests-elderly-willing-die-economy/2905990001/