Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

basilio · 18 March 2020

basilio said:
Now we are in for keeps. It looks as if we will have a shut down society for probably at least 6 weeks.
In my view if we got away with that we would be laughing.

The measures taken to control/slow/stop the spread of the corona virus will collapse our current economic system. Our entertainment and sports industries are virtually shut down. All the staff required the business owners, the shops the purchases just disappeared.

The beauty industry is on its knees. Hairdressing salons, beauticians, nail salons, massage places (legal and otherwise) will be closed

Almost all retailers bar food places and say hardware stores will find it exceptionally hard to stay open or have more than skeleton staff.

If schools and universities have to close suddenly a huge part of the work force will have to stay home to mind the kids. And I suggest that keeping a bunch of restless energetic children/teenagers from destroying the house and everyone sanity will be a monumental effort in itself. Unfortunately the most challenging children will generally be in the homes of the most challenged parents. Lets see how that works out.

So this will have to be one of the biggest learning curves we have ever faced. I seriously wonder what support, tips, structures , incentives, are being planned to help this huge social necessity succeed in preventing all sorts of mayhem ?

Any ideas ?

Looks as if governments are now recognising the need to underpin basic business/household economies as shutdowns accelerate.

'Survival package' is on the cards, says the Victorian premier.
Victorian premier Daniel Andrews says he believes things are moving forward from stimulus to “survival” payments:

Stimulus is very important. There is a big difference between trying to encourage people to spend and helping people and businesses to fundamentally survive.

We are getting beyond – fast getting beyond – stimulus and we’re into survival payments – a survival package.

We have many businesses who have zero income. Offering them a tax cut doesn’t necessarily do it.

If we are going to have some businesses close their doors, if we want to avoid them collapsing altogether and if we want to make sure they are there at the end of this virus, we need to be providing that sort of emergency capital, that sort of emergency cash. We are doing some work, we will have more to say about that.

It is important to get this right. To be calm, to be considered and no doubt, the federal government is considering issues of guaranteeing mortgages, guaranteeing income, all manner of different measures.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...9-nsw-victoria-qld-schools-latest-news-update

InsvestoBoy · 18 March 2020

sptrawler said:
It will probably ramp up, untill the opportune time to 'shut down' is reached, there is no point doing it too early or too late.
Too early and the whole process starts up again after the lock down, too late and it gets completely out of control, bit of a cleft stick situation.

Too late was two weeks ago.

The Government was playing a game of chicken between the economy and the virus, they already lost and just don't know it yet.

basilio · 18 March 2020

Came across an excellent (IMV) analysis of the proliferation of various stories around teh danger and spread of the COVID 19 virus.
Starts with Alan Jones current dismissal of it as overblown hysteria but then digs deep.

Coronavirus: Alan Jones’ ‘dangerous’ virus theory
Radio shock-jock Alan Jones is used to courting controversy – but his latest comments about COVID-19 could be putting people at risk.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...y/news-story/b7e43fa26ca43ce4b3c858a91fe818ff

barney · 18 March 2020

sptrawler said:
the media has been calling for a complete shut down for days.

I said to my wife (who happens to be in a high risk environment where the virus has been confirmed at least once)

In an ideal world, the only way to get this thing under control is by doing the following ...

For the sake of the example lets assume we are dealing with just 1 town or city in Australia so it simplifies the suggestion.

1) The whole population of that City should go into immediate isolation for 14 days unless their occupation is determined an essential service (ie. Medical/Nursing/Food distribution etc etc)

2) Everyone (everyone!) has to be tested for the virus after the 14 day period except those working in essential services who should be tested immediately in order of likeliness of being a carrier.

3) A further 5 day wait for results (19 days)

4) Any carriers of the Virus after testing immediately go into severe isolation with appropriate medical facilities and become monitored and re tested after another 14 days minimum

5) After testing results people must wear a badge stating their condition as either negative or positive.

6) The complete process is then started again (another 19 days)

7) Those with 2 consecutive negative tests (wearing 2 badges) should theoretically be safe to associate with others with the same result.

8) After this process was completed 3 or 4 times, it would be reasonable to expect that the majority of those still carrying the virus would now be totally isolated.

9) Rinse and repeat the testing process until carriers of the virus test clear.

Now I'm not naïve enough to suggest this would be easy or even possible to implement, but IF each Town/City/Country had enough testing kits and enough medical staff to carry out the testing, I believe the worst of the situation could be curtailed in around 3 months which would be a hell of a lot quicker, less costly and more efficient than trying band aid measures.

Because the World has a lack of Testing facilities available, the above cannot be implemented. We need to find a way to improve the ability to TEST large numbers of the population quickly!

sptrawler · 18 March 2020

InsvestoBoy said:
Too late was two weeks ago.

The Government was playing a game of chicken between the economy and the virus, they already lost and just don't know it yet.

Oh, that's really bad news.

basilio · 18 March 2020

Further discussion on supporting all people facing job losses through COVID 19

Australia's economic victims of coronavirus, just like the health victims, need help now
Richard Denniss
No one deserves to lose their job because of coronavirus, and there is no good argument against boosting Newstart now

Most people agree we should do all we can to help those who – through no fault of their own – contract Covid-19. The government is, rightly, about to spend billions of dollars on health services to help those who need it. No one expects people to get through coronavirus on their own.

But when it comes to the hundreds of thousands of people who are about to lose their jobs because of Covid-19, our public policy response is not nearly so generous.

The median full-time wage in Australia is $68,000 a year. A person who is laid off from their job will land in a Newstart safety net of almost $14,500 a year. How many weeks could you pay for food, rent, mortgage or car payments on $280 a week?
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...us-just-like-the-health-victims-need-help-now

moXJO · 18 March 2020

Banks in Italy looking shaky.

sptrawler · 18 March 2020

On a brighter note, I think now I have lost so much in the market, I will now qualify for a pension.

In two years time when I turn 66 1/2.

moXJO · 18 March 2020

Heard from a bank teller friend a lot of people are pulling cash out.

MrChow · 18 March 2020

Took Italy 5 days of quarantine to get their new cases to flatten:

Day 5 - 3.4k
Day 6 - 3.5k
Day 7 - 3.2k
Day 8 - 3.5k

Seems like a good playbook to follow the countries who do this seem to be the first to be done with it.

Garpal Gumnut · 18 March 2020

basilio said:
Looks as if governments are now recognising the need to underpin basic business/household economies as shutdowns accelerate.

'Survival package' is on the cards, says the Victorian premier.
Victorian premier Daniel Andrews says he believes things are moving forward from stimulus to “survival” payments:

Stimulus is very important. There is a big difference between trying to encourage people to spend and helping people and businesses to fundamentally survive.

We are getting beyond – fast getting beyond – stimulus and we’re into survival payments – a survival package.

We have many businesses who have zero income. Offering them a tax cut doesn’t necessarily do it.

If we are going to have some businesses close their doors, if we want to avoid them collapsing altogether and if we want to make sure they are there at the end of this virus, we need to be providing that sort of emergency capital, that sort of emergency cash. We are doing some work, we will have more to say about that.

It is important to get this right. To be calm, to be considered and no doubt, the federal government is considering issues of guaranteeing mortgages, guaranteeing income, all manner of different measures.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...9-nsw-victoria-qld-schools-latest-news-update

Victoria is in the unfortunate position of relying on activities such as Education, Tourism, Aerospace, Food and Fibre, Dairy and Pharmaceuticals production for it's economic survival.

Education, Tourism and Aerospace are set for a significant decrease in income for the state.

Melbourne itself which depends on being a financial centre, education, tourism, selling coffee to each other and large undeclared criminal enterprises, will decline as Chinese students and others move back to China.

Food and fibre, despite bushfires, may thrive if there is back burning and a green exodus but a general depression throughout Australia and the world will depress prices.

Dairy will suffer badly, as Chinese mums will revert to breast feeding rather than assailing supermarkets in Westfield with wheel barrows.

Pharmaceuticals though sounding promising is in fact more of the slap and tickle variety, vitamins that are not important to well-being and work by observing the colour of one's urine change, proteins that reduce small testicles to an even smaller size and other non-essential drugs.

Thus Mr. Andrews who after a bad start to the response to Covid-19 is correct to panic and act quickly.

One thing for sure, house prices will fall, and drastically.

gg

againsthegrain · 18 March 2020

moXJO said:
Heard from a bank teller friend a lot of people are pulling cash out.

so much for cashless society putting a stop to this, hope it doesn't happen here

Humid · 18 March 2020

moXJO said:
Heard from a bank teller friend a lot of people are pulling cash out.

Don’t pull too much out you’ll be arrested with the scummo government

MrChow · 18 March 2020

Contactless Card sounds a bit better than 50 people rubbing their hands on paper to take home.

Also why is quarantine seen as a bad thing in this whole narrative? News is making it seem like the end of the world. It's proven to be the solution not the problem.

sptrawler · 18 March 2020

MrChow said:
Contactless Card sounds a bit better than 50 people rubbing their hands on paper to take home.

Don't start talking sense around here, you will get paid out on.
There is a bogey man behind every corner, about to steal their trolley full of toilet paper.

Dona Ferentes · 18 March 2020

moXJO said:
Heard from a bank teller friend a lot of people are pulling cash out.

Call this one out. Who goes into a bank?

Smurf1976 · 18 March 2020

Dona Ferentes said:
Call this one out. Who goes into a bank?

Anyone wanting to withdraw a large amount of cash needs to since ATM’s have a limit as do shops via EFTPOS.

Smurf1976 · 18 March 2020

MrChow said:
Also why is quarantine seen as a bad thing in this whole narrative? News is making it seem like the end of the world. It's proven to be the solution not the problem.

It’s not the end of the world but it’s a massive inconvenience and economic cost.

sptrawler · 18 March 2020

The media might be the next sector to get a wake up call.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...8-p54bfd.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true

Dona Ferentes · 18 March 2020

Smurf1976 said:
It’s not the end of the world but it’s a massive inconvenience and economic cost.

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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basilio

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