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Let's stop blaming Covid for that..
These are engineered hardships and shortages
Let's stop blaming Covid for that..Tourism and entertainment wont be the only ones feeling the pinch, due to covid. It will be hitting other sectors too.
From the article:
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has responded to calls from leading surgeons to overturn a temporary ban on elective procedures.
Victorians waiting for elective surgeries will need to hold on longer, despite calls from surgeons to get them back into the operating theatre.
Following public pleas from surgeons to repeal the “blanket ban” on elective surgeries, calling it a “blunt tool” that was leaving people in long-term pain, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said there was more to consider than the request of a few.
yes we need more election surgery to cure that if two or three parties need to be removed from the political scene so be it , they are there to REPRESENT the people , not cling to power with whatever it takesLet's stop blaming Covid for that..
These are engineered hardships and shortages
All of the above. If you look at other indicators things aren't so great.is that earnings growth from a low base , or earnings propped up by stimulus/hardship packages
or maybe the inflation rate left out a few little rises
DYOR
The “de-identified data” revealed that only 14,439 small business entities received JobKeeper which represented just 1.4 per cent of the more than one million entities who applied for it. But then came the amazing statistic – those 14,439 enterprises employed 1,348,324 Australians which represented 33 per cent of the individuals who benefited from JobKeeper payments.
Always have to be careful about theses stats.View attachment 137055
Largest miss in history, however, the unemployment RATE has actually increased.
So, we've seen a huge uptick in the participation rate.
Inflation numbers out next week, all bets are now obviously off for that and we'll probably now see it way higher than expected/forecast. Markets are already pricing this in as bond yields have spiked on this news, as will energy etc tonight. Even more talk about a 50 basis point rise at the next fed meeting now.
Even wages grew 0.7% vs a 0.5% estimated.
Secondly, its the ten year "readjustment" that the BLS do to past accounts, which shows some drastic changes to figures.First, looking at just the December to January change we find that while the seasonally adjusted number rose by an impressive 467K, the unadjusted number collapsed, tumbling from 150.349 million to 147.525 million, a 2.8 million drop (as it tends to do every time the year shifts from December to January) meaning that the entire delta in the January number - somewhere in the 3+ million range - is due to arbitrary adjustments overlaid on top of the data.
There may well be valid reasons for these "adjustments", but whether valid or not, it displays just how little faith one can put in these stats.The plot thickens, and indeed one thing that analysts apparently forgot when they were submitting their forecasts for January's payrolls is that this is the month when the BLS adjusts data for the past 10 years as part of its population estimates revisions, which impact both the Household and more important, Establishment, surveys.
In summary, what these revisions did was to revise 2017 job growth lower by by -61,000, 2018 lower by -26,000, 2019 revised lower by -43,000, while 2020 was revised higher by 124,000, and 2021 was also revised up 217,000, or in total a 211,000 upward revision over 5 years or 3,500 jobs per month.
Focusing on just 2021, we find something curious: the stunning print from the summer which saw June and July print at or over 1 million, have been slashed by almost 50%, at the expense of most recent months such that October added 29K, November added 398K and December added 311K jobs to what was the original print only as a result of seasonal adjustments. Said otherwise, March-July was revised lower by -1,061,000 while Aug-Dec was revised up by +817,000.
True, we could wax lyrical about this for days, but, perception is reality in this businessAlways have to be careful about theses stats.
My old mate Chuck Casey used to say that if you took the L out of BLS, you would have a more accurate description of their work.
Like most of the Stats people around the world, the BLS is fond of seasonal adjustments, and every month is "seasonally adjusted" to account for these non underlying anomalies. In this case, seasonal adjustments took a loss of 2.8 million employed to a 467k gain.
Now thats what I call creative accounting!
From Zero Hedge
Secondly, its the ten year "readjustment" that the BLS do to past accounts, which shows some drastic changes to figures.
There may well be valid reasons for these "adjustments", but whether valid or not, it displays just how little faith one can put in these stats.
Mick
Oh and my gut instinct reference a 50 basis point rise:
Won't happen. It'll spook markets too much for the fed's appetite. We'll see the expected 25 point rise unless there's a big narrative emerge about them being asleep at the wheel or whatever.
(pure guesswork here, don't take out any positions based on this)
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