Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

I understand WHO have presently classified it as a "variant of interest" rather than a "variant of concern."

Some amusing comments to this pre-print.

Emergence in Southern France of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of probably Cameroonian origin harbouring both substitutions N501Y and E484K in the spike protein

SARS-CoV-2 variants have become a major virological, epidemiological and clinical concern, particularly with regard to the risk of escape from vaccine-induced immunity. Here we describe the emergence of a new variant. For twelve SARS-CoV-positive patients living in the same geographical area of...

www.medrxiv.org

To be honest,just fear mongering from media ..as the puppets from the masters.
Obviously omicron is benign and spreading ,and people are realising that hardly anyone dies FROM it, moreover jabs did not make a difference so they need to crank up the hysteria.
If the news stops,the $ stops and people. ..well for those still left with a whiff of thinking, will ask hard questions.
That can not and will not be allowed to happen.medically this is over..a bump in stats
So the history has to be:
We faced a catastrophic worldwide illness caused by global warming but we all banded together,the western labs performed a miracle and thanks to this safe jabs,we won.
Anyone thinking otherwise is a red neo nazi hiding under your bed, we will destroy these subhumans for the good of mankind,and sadly the economic crash , the empty shelves and $1100 steaks we have now are caused by the virus and these antivaxx.
Eat tofu
And just send us your gold silver and cash, we will sort it for you
Don't forget to wear your mask and scan your code,we need to track thes antivax terrorists
you are a gooood boy/girl
Good summary?
Catch up in 10y and see what was so extreme?

A side note
@Knobby22 we had a kind of bet: tracing is still mandated here in qld but: there is no contamination tracing performed anymore ,
and no one will alert you if someone else is contagious so what for?
Except for tracking people as used by police:
checked
and ATO..we will never know.
Why is this still in place?
Feel free to send my bet win to Joe

In memory of the small businesses lost, the sick people left dying and youth injured to support the narrative, the lives ruined so far and the generations wasted ahead .

 

[macca]

I should have clarified that my comments are in relation to markets generally. That is, they're far more about the US than they are about Australia given the relative dominance of the US.

The post March-2020 run in the US' major indices just seems incredibly extended to me. The biggest alarm bell of the lot is seeing those ads from trading platforms marketed at novices which say something to the effect of "in a period of major volatility, if it gets really bad, you could even go as far as reducing the amount of leverage used". Um..... So lots of inexperienced traders and they're trading with leverage as the "normal" thing to do and they've only ever traded this bull run and nothing else? What could possibly go wrong.....

Then add in the more experienced traders who grasp that stocks can indeed go down and who have stop losses set either as such or they've got a firm line in the sand for a manually activated sell.

Then add in algorithmic trading.

Hence my thought that whenever a correction comes, it'll be hard and fast as humans rush for the exits and machines do likewise.

I guess at some point in time the current inflation rate in the USA must force the Fed to upset the game and actually do their job.

I have been reading for the past quarter, reports of USA inflation annualized to 6% and still nothing from the Fed.

I expect to see a dip over there for a couple of weeks while "certain people" lighten off, then surprise surprise, the Fed actually do something about the existing rampant inflation and start raising rates.

When we consider inflation is already there and they are about to be hit with rising food costs as well as rising heating costs, they really need to be raising 0.25% every meeting this year.

Look out below................

 

[divs4ever]

I guess at some point in time the current inflation rate in the USA must force the Fed to upset the game and actually do their job.

I have been reading for the past quarter, reports of USA inflation annualized to 6% and still nothing from the Fed.

I expect to see a dip over there for a couple of weeks while "certain people" lighten off, then surprise surprise, the Fed actually do something about the existing rampant inflation and start raising rates.

When we consider inflation is already there and they are about to be hit with rising food costs as well as rising heating costs, they really need to be raising 0.25% every meeting this year.

Look out below................

BUT , BUT , isn't it the Fed's mission to inflate debt away ??

but yes this could get very nasty , especially if you wait for the government to provide the solution

 

[over9k]

I guess at some point in time the current inflation rate in the USA must force the Fed to upset the game and actually do their job.

I have been reading for the past quarter, reports of USA inflation annualized to 6% and still nothing from the Fed.

I expect to see a dip over there for a couple of weeks while "certain people" lighten off, then surprise surprise, the Fed actually do something about the existing rampant inflation and start raising rates.

When we consider inflation is already there and they are about to be hit with rising food costs as well as rising heating costs, they really need to be raising 0.25% every meeting this year.

Look out below................

Good post, but you missed one thing:

Powell's term as fed chair expires next month.

 

[wayneL]

Good post, but you missed one thing:

Powell's term as fed chair expires next month.

Hasn't Jerome Powelzebub been anointed as Emporer of Babylon the Great for another term?

 

[Country Lad]

Hasn't Jerome Powelzebub been anointed as Emporer of Babylon the Great for another term?

Nominated but I have not heard he has been confirmed but which should be a given.

 

[divs4ever]

Nominated but I have not heard he has been confirmed but which should be a given.

that is what i understood as well , there is SOME chance of a late push for the second-in-line to be elevated , but most Democrat Congress are corporate patsies as well , so Powell looks to be more acceptable ( to most ) than the most likely replacement

HOWEVER if Biden was to resign from the Presidency , Powell might be under extra pressure to shorten his term ( normally i wouldn't worry about that too much .. but Biden does have some issues surrounding him )

 

[over9k]

Hasn't Jerome Powelzebub been anointed as Emporer of Babylon the Great for another term?

Yes, but let's think about who actually appoints him. He has masters and knows (knew) that there was (is) a particular result they want.

 

[Knobby22]

Yes, but let's think about who actually appoints him. He has masters and knows (knew) that there was (is) a particular result they want.

And he also has a legacy to keep.
I am sure he doesn't want to be remembered as the guy who stuffed it up.

 

[over9k]

And he also has a legacy to keep.
I am sure he doesn't want to be remembered as the guy who stuffed it up.

I don't think he has a choice

 

[macca]

I don't think he has a choice

When does he act, if not soon then, it will be 10% inflation with interest rates at zero, not beyond the realms of possibilities that 10% happens within 6 months.

The growing seasons in Europe and North America have been poor, so food goes up at the same time as oil and gas (Crimea situation is a Biggie) and inflation takes off

Interest rates would need to be raised a full 1% each Fed meeting for six months before it even started to slow it all down.

We would soon have a Black Monday and black every other day ending in Y

Very nasty and very incompetent

 

[wayneL]

Jim Bianco's view (thread)

 

[Smurf1976]

The growing seasons in Europe and North America have been poor, so food goes up at the same time as oil and gas

There's an even greater relationship between the two than many would likely be aware.

Natural gas is the raw material for producing ammonia which is heavily used as fertilizer. To be clear that's not simply using gas to power machinery in the factory but rather, gas is the actual raw material from which it's made via a series of chemical reactions.

Oil (mostly in the form of diesel) not only powers most farm machinery and road transport but it's also the raw material from which various chemicals and so on are made.

In the reverse direction, various agricultural crops can be (are actually) used to make ethanol and biodiesel. Ethanol being added to petrol to boost the octane but if it's cheap enough then extra can be added simply to bulk out the product as sold.

So there's a heavy interlinkage there. Higher oil and gas prices directly adds to the cost of agricultural production. At the same time if petrol and diesel are selling at a higher price due to oil prices rising then that increases the price up to which agricultural products can be bought and profitably processed into ethanol or biodiesel.

So they're quite intertwined.

 

[qldfrog]

There's an even greater relationship between the two than many would likely be aware.

Natural gas is the raw material for producing ammonia which is heavily used as fertilizer. To be clear that's not simply using gas to power machinery in the factory but rather, gas is the actual raw material from which it's made via a series of chemical reactions.

Oil (mostly in the form of diesel) not only powers most farm machinery and road transport but it's also the raw material from which various chemicals and so on are made.

In the reverse direction, various agricultural crops can be (are actually) used to make ethanol and biodiesel. Ethanol being added to petrol to boost the octane but if it's cheap enough then extra can be added simply to bulk out the product as sold.

So there's a heavy interlinkage there. Higher oil and gas prices directly adds to the cost of agricultural production. At the same time if petrol and diesel are selling at a higher price due to oil prices rising then that increases the price up to which agricultural products can be bought and profitably processed into ethanol or biodiesel.

So they're quite intertwined.

and if you dig deeper, you quickly realise that
cereals= oil;
literally, most of the mega grain production is a sun based conversion of fossil fuels (fertiliser) into edible calories;
The green revolution which has allowed 10 billions humans on this planet not to starve is an oil revolution;

Remove oil:
the only energy left is the sun and most fertilisers disappear
Greta is VERY slim but happy in Sweden which is highly productive as we all know and the world population has to collapse by famine

Obviously, we still have some oil, and so simply have extended shortage and higher oil price

As oil price increases, food price increases; add a bit of engineered shortage and collapsed supply chain:
: we saw the Arab Spring (cause by oil and food price); wait for the antivax pogroms.
How will the west react, and the rest of the world?
what will happen when the US and european cereal ships stop for 100 million Egyptians or 210 millions Nigerians ?
the pyramids are artistic but not exactly market garden perfect.
We have many crisis lurking, and the attempts at the Reset under Covid guise might overshot even the instigators

 

[SirRumpole]

And most plastics disappear as well. Can't replace them overnight.

 

[over9k]

When does he act, if not soon then, it will be 10% inflation with interest rates at zero, not beyond the realms of possibilities that 10% happens within 6 months.

The growing seasons in Europe and North America have been poor, so food goes up at the same time as oil and gas (Crimea situation is a Biggie) and inflation takes off

Interest rates would need to be raised a full 1% each Fed meeting for six months before it even started to slow it all down.

We would soon have a Black Monday and black every other day ending in Y

Very nasty and very incompetent

Again, supply side problem. The fed can't control the virus or weather.

 

[Smurf1976]

Again, supply side problem. The fed can't control the virus or weather.

They can however stop diluting the money.

I can't think of any other industry whose product has deteriorated to the extent that central banks' fiat money has deteriorated over the past century. One Dollar used to have real purchasing power whereas now it's barely able to buy anything at all.

If cars had seen a similar loss of performance then the top speed of any car sold today would be considerably slower than walking pace.

 

[over9k]

They can however stop diluting the money.

I can't think of any other industry whose product has deteriorated to the extent that central banks' fiat money has deteriorated over the past century. One Dollar used to have real purchasing power whereas now it's barely able to buy anything at all.

If cars had seen a similar loss of performance then the top speed of any car sold today would be considerably slower than walking pace.

Nah not over the last century, only since 15 August 1971

 

[over9k]

Just in case anyone was wondering if we're in the perfect storm or not.

Stagflation ahead folks.

 

[over9k]

Jim Bianco's view (thread)

What continues to blow my mind is the fact that people are actually surprised by this. How wasn't any (all) of this already priced in to basically everything?

Here's your inflation play in one screencap: