Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[wayneL]

They wouldn't be the first authority that didn't want to admit that their control of a particular situation was, shall we say, limited. Remember that confidence is everything at a macro level. And that's before we even start with the competence angle (do you really think that they know what's going to happen/can see the future?).

Larry summers has been throwing bombs from the sidelines/voicing his opinion as loud as he has been for a reason.

Even in the private sector, I live in a near constant state of astonishment at just how utterly clueless so many "professional" money managers are, and we're talking people in charge of staggering sums of money in super funds etc. If you haven't at least 5x'd your money in this pandemic then you haven't even so much as beaten an index etf:

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I manage my own money (and I've now had friends give me 5 figure sums of their own money) for a reason. I post up everything I do in this thread for that same reason as it doesn't cost me anything to help you guys beat the market as well.

Even something as simple as doing nothing but buying a leveraged index etf like SPXL or TQQQ and not making a single trade in 18 months makes the so called "actively" managed funds look like the absolute hacks that they are and I've made considerable effort to point that out in this thread too.

Last week alone netted 25% doing literally nothing but buying TQQQ on red and selling on green. That's it. Buy on a red day, sell on a green one. That's three years' returns for a super fund in normal market conditions done in a WEEK.


tl;dr most of the people in charge are incompetent, water also confirmed wet.

Your effort is noted but seemingly underappreciated.

5x... f*** me, I wish. I wouldn't be under bad-mannered nags owned by unappreciative trophy wives (as much as I appreciate summer in such situations).

 

[over9k]

Your effort is noted but seemingly underappreciated.

5x... f*** me, I wish. I wouldn't be under bad-mannered nags owned by unappreciative trophy wives (as much as I appreciate summer in such situations).

Surely you've shadow traded me a bit?

Even this quick & dirty r2k buy I posted yesterday:

For all the technical types, the r2k has just hit support again:

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I've grabbed a small amount just to see if the prophecy self-fulfils.

Aside from that, just more omicron carryon. Bit of a slow news day. Looking like a red week overall, but a nice swing play yesterday.

Is looking like an 11%'er in under a day if it opens at premarket numbers:



As you can imagine, it doesn't take a lot of these (or just the swing plays I keep posting endlessly) for the numbers to add up very quickly.

With that being said, I did show the returns from just buying a leveraged etf and not making a single trade in 18 months too. FNGU has so far peaked at a 15 bagger, or about 11x your money after factoring in the exchange rate:



Admittedly I do do this full time and am up at all kinds of mental hours with the markets open 1.30am-8am and as best I can tell most forum members aren't, but you can still grab etf's and just sit on them if you have a day job etc you have to do.

 

[over9k]

I concluded long ago that being right at the top of the tree is something where the main required skill is not economics or a seemingly relevant field such as math but rather it's acting.

An ability to stand outside in gale force winds with torrential rain commenting on what a pleasant sunny day it is while remaining completely serious and giving no indication that you've even noticed the wind and rain. The sort of thing that a decent actor can do well but where the average person would just burst out laughing.

Oh absolutely. I can remember post-gfc there was some bigwig in europe (I can't remember who) who several years later, after getting busted in what was clearly a bald-faced like actually outright said that "when things are REALLY bad, you actually HAVE to lie".

He wasn't wrong either - circular flow etc depends on confidence. Remove that confidence, things go to the wall, the more things go to the wall, the more people want to get out and so they just go to the wall faster, so on and so forth...

At a macro level economies are largely just huge feedback loops so yeah, he wasn't wrong.

(The austrian in me has an awful lot to say about this but this isn't the thread for it)

 

[over9k]

And as if on cue, we have a new most ridiculous headline of the week:



I'd love to ask jpowell the very simple question of "How?".



With that being said, ok guys, with this kind of stuff coming across the news every other day now, let's see if we can have another test/question post for the econ students or casual traders out there:


If we assume that the powers that be are talking out of their asses about inflation only being transitory etc, what are going to be our plays/outperformers from here on out on a longer timeline, say medium term 1-5 years?

The hint for this question actually lies in the graph I posted along with the last question:



Think about what is actually driving the cpi and ppi numbers up and why the ppi was higher than the cpi. If that inflation is NOT being driven by wage growth (which we know it isn't on account of the fact that the ppi is higher than the cpi) then what IS driving it?

Remember that like the last question, there could be more than one force/factor at play here.

 

[over9k]

Imagine being the guy that bought at close yesterday.

Selling TNA at open was a good call today. @wayneL I'm going to run another swing play selling banks & energy and buying tech & microchips soon if you want to join me for the ride and see if we end up taking it in the proverbial tomorrow.

 

[over9k]

A red week, but with all this inflation carryon vs the omicron variant, things have been just as choppy this week as they were last week and there appears to be no sign of it abating:





Tune in next week for more ultra complex "buy on red day, sell on green one" swing plays. You don't have to get many of these right to make double-digits in a single week.

Crypto's down on the week but so are bonds. Bonds are actually right back on their trend line though so we'll see what happens there.

 

[qldfrog]

Your effort is noted but seemingly underappreciated.

5x... f*** me, I wish. I wouldn't be under bad-mannered nags owned by unappreciative trophy wives (as much as I appreciate summer in such situations).

You would indeed be better off under appreciative trophy wives than bad mannered nags,even in winter?

 

[over9k]

Looking like a bloodbath at open tonight folks, so we all know what that means.

 

[divs4ever]

but we all had a Plan B sitting on the shelf next to a useful pile of cash , RIGHT ??

and yes i admit some of my cash came from take-overs i hoped would fall through ( but at least i don't blow it , on a holiday , new car . or whatever )

TAKE CARE and good luck

 

[over9k]

"Build back better" K.O'd by one defecting senator on a day after a weekend where the omicron numbers have skyrocketed so markets have all plummeted, but we've also found a bottom and just stayed there:



So there's your signal.

 

[over9k]

2hrs after close.

 

[qldfrog]

Just something weird, while browsing our ASF site, noticed an advertisement from LATAM about South America flights opening,.
It is no secret that I have been trying to travel O/S (central America) for 2years
No luck in booking something early next year, even after Qld opened last week yehhh
Anyway:
March 22 Latam opens, click the link:
LATAM australia online:

Cheap flights with LATAM Airlines Australia | Official Site

Take advantage of the incredible discounts and flight deals offered by LATAM Airlines. Book your trip now and enjoy the best experience

www.latamairlines.com

and I see that:


and I then check:

a mistake?

Nope...
hum...could this be that this airline has decided not to trust the AUD and so use USD so making sure it is edged against its operational costs.
I found this interesting ..and new Post covid.
still March.....

 

[over9k]

The next day:

 

[over9k]

Situation now critical in japan:

 

[divs4ever]

O-M-G an outbreak of healthy eating in Japan ???

will the aged live even longer ??

 

[over9k]

O-M-G an outbreak of healthy eating in Japan ???

will the aged live even longer ??

Their supersize is probably an american medium so I wouldn't be too concerned.

 

[Smurf1976]

Situation now critical in japan:

Does that mean they've stopped asking "would you like fries with that?"

 

[over9k]

Does that mean they've stopped asking "would you like fries with that?"

It's whale over there isn't it?

 

[over9k]

Looks like the BS might be behind us and the bull market's back in session with three days green now.

Still have omicron and energy as curveballs but markets don't seem to care about omicron much.

 

[frugal.rock]

Looks like the BS might be behind us and the bull market's back in session with three days green now.

Definitely a late santa rally.
Crypto's breaking through resistance, all green.
AUD up 0.5% on USD
Oil and most metals all green.
Its pretty much a sea of green across the board, except for shorting vehicles, another bullish factor. Let's just forget about the toppy choppy frothy markets...?

Still have omicron and energy as curveballs but markets don't seem to care about omicron much.

Re Omicron (or Omircon as the ABC had as a news backdrop splash poster thing... the national broadcaster that can't spell ?)
yesterday was the first news day I noticed where market related news was all "Omicron worries easing" type crap, rather than Omicron doom and gloom hitting markets.

As for oil, up overnight, lower weekly stockpiles, busy holiday/travel season.
Chart breaking out of the 72 area (WTI)