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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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Huge drop in crypto over the last day - excellent time for another swing play.


Nothing else to report other than OPEC not wanting to open the oil taps so oil's gone from about 82 to 83 a barrel. Previous high was 86 iirc.
 
over9k said:
Huge drop in crypto over the last day - excellent time for another swing play.


Nothing else to report other than OPEC not wanting to open the oil taps so oil's gone from about 82 to 83 a barrel. Previous high was 86 iirc.
Click to expand...
 
Biden's threatened to start releasing crude from the strategic petroleum reserve so oil's dropped (along with inflation fears on account of oil being just about the most primary input on the planet) so another nice swing play on the cards tonight lads. Nothing else to update otherwise.
 
Nothing that can't be fixed by paying people more.

Seems like employers have gotten used to paying minimum wage to desperate migrants that will work for anything and are now kicking up a stink about it.
 
over9k said:
Nothing that can't be fixed by paying people more.

Seems like employers have gotten used to paying minimum wage to desperate migrants that will work for anything and are now kicking up a stink about it.
Click to expand...

I said this before but what will minimum wage get you? Sleeping in your car and a cheap and nasty home brand feed from aldi that will burst your intestines before you retire. inflation inflation location location
 
over9k said:
Seems like employers have gotten used to paying minimum wage to desperate migrants that will work for anything and are now kicking up a stink about it.
Click to expand...
Another way of looking at it is the ability to keep inflation down by suppressing wages has run out. It seems that can can't be kicked any further, there's nothing left of it.
 
over9k said:
Nothing that can't be fixed by paying people more.

Seems like employers have gotten used to paying minimum wage to desperate migrants that will work for anything and are now kicking up a stink about it.
Click to expand...
I feel a phase of hyper inflation and aussie dollar deflation coming on. ?
The ducks are lining up for a Labor win.
The last thing the country needs, at this point in time, is a lot of industrial turmoil.
 
againsthegrain said:
The geniuses at rba think they can stretch it to 24
Click to expand...
The geniuses at the RBA are setting it up for a fall and a big one IMO.
This charge to renewables is going to require the maximum bang for bucks, the best way to get it is a recession.
Time will tell, but I would certainly be taking a cautious approach, at the moment.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Another way of looking at it is the ability to keep inflation down by suppressing wages has run out. It seems that can can't be kicked any further, there's nothing left of it.
Click to expand...
Wait until the borders open.

Australia's baby bust will be the new reason to bring them all in - "we need young people to do all the work" or some such drivel. The reason changes every time they lose the argument so that'll probably be the new one.


This country's had a "skills shortage" for 20 years now. It's not going to "go away" any time soon.
 

There are plans for 400k a year I read
 
sptrawler said:
The geniuses at the RBA are setting it up for a fall and a big one IMO.
Click to expand...
Conversely, "the big 4" do what they want.
Shouldn't it be "the big 5" ?
Doesn't Maquarie come into it?

Increased costs? Up go rates.
Simple.
I would expect rates across the board to follow in dribs and drabs, once other lenders feel the pinch.

CBA raises fixed rates - 2021

Select fixed rate home loans with the major bank have increased, less than 24 hours after Westpac announced similar changes. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has revealed that, as of last week
www.theadviser.com.au
 

They caught all the fish in the nets (cheap mortgages) now time to tighten the string, pull them out of the water and eat them
 
cross-post:




But you have to remember how these things are weighted in the (fudged) official CPI etc numbers. Think about how much energy is a primary input into even food production and energy has had a massive supply crunch. The good news is that oil wells etc are coming back online (this doesn't take 5 minutes) and just talk of releasing strategic reserves has dumped the oil price and thus everything else dramatically:




You have to remember that prices are pretty sticky/slow to react in this market because you can't just reopen an oil well and ship oil across the planet in five minutes, this is a process that takes weeks. Oil companies also obviously want to know there's going to be a market for their stuff before they ship it so they need some confidence in the oil price before they pull the metaphorical trigger.


Point is, this is, like everything else in the pandemic, far more a supply side issue than an interest rate one. Interest rates effect asset prices (p/e), commodity etc prices, not so much.
 
50 million barrels released of the yanks' strategic petroleum reserve. Futures have bounced.

The yanks have mountains of shale wells to get back online so this is just a stop-gap after opec refused to up production. So, all a supply side issue.

Edit: Looks like there's a coordinated release between non-opec countries - india's just released 5 million, more announcements to follow.
 
Lots of big increases in numbers across europe so lots of pretty hardcore lockdowns. Markets getting pounded as a result. Nothing surprising whatsoever.
 
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