Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[basilio]

Ok so the government has some specific plans to deal with a full blown pandemic.
Quite commendable.
Speaking at the Royal Children’s hospital in Melbourne, Victoria’s chief health officer, Dr Brett Sutton, said authorities were working on the basis that a coronavirus pandemic was inevitable.

“I think it’s much, much safer that way,” Sutton said. “We have to proceed with planning on the basis it is inevitable and we can and should expect more cases in Australia in the coming weeks or months. I don’t want to see us get caught out at all.”

What I didn't see in the picture was how people and organization were going to stay solvent during this process. This has to be addressed IMV.

At least we have a plan. I'm not sure if the Trump administration can offer such a structure beyond "thoughts and prayers"

Australia's coronavirus pandemic plan: mass vaccinations and stadium quarantine

A pandemic could last up to 10 months with 40% of the workforce sidelined by illness or caring for family in worst-case scenario
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...plan-mass-vaccinations-and-stadium-quarantine

 

[basilio]

I found this statement puzzling from The Guardian report.
I would have thought that if up to 40% of the workforce was either sick, caring for the sick or in quarantine GDP would be hit much harder than "10%". I suppose the catch word is "greater than 10%"

“The social distancing measures that may be required will have wide-ranging effects, with closure of schools and childcare services, and cancellation of public events. It is estimated that up to 40% of the workforce may withdraw from work at any one time due to illness, the need to care for family members or the fear of contracting the virus in the workplace or on public transport.

“One study estimated that in a worst-case pandemic influenza scenario, Australia’s gross domestic product could suffer a decline of greater than 10%.

 

[sptrawler]

What I found interesting, was the media was annoyed that the Government wanted to send the first cases to Christmas Island, now they sound annoyed if the Government is going to bring any Uni students in. I could hear the gears grating from here, as they grabbed reverse.

 

[sptrawler]

Getting back to topic, as we suspected, travel agents starting to come up for air.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...big-hit-from-coronavirus-20200227-p544uf.html

Flight Centre has cut its full-year profit guidance by 22 per cent, to between $240 million and $300 million, as the coronavirus outbreak crushes travel demand globally.

The travel booking group also cut its interim dividend after delivering a weak set of half-year results on Thursday

 

[fergee]

I just went for a bike ride to other side of the city I live in here in Shikoku, Japan, to do some shopping. I noticed a lot more people than usual wearing sick masks today, around 25%-30% of people, none of them were N95 masks.

I also talked to a couple of the locals I know here and they were saying that people are getting more worried about the whole situation.

The thing is people here do not take days off sick unless they have go to hospital as their work places and home budgetary requirements do not allow it.

So far I have heard of cases in Tokyo, Hokkaido and anecdotally in Osaka. The governments official statistics seem to have tapered off over the last few days but I do not trust them as the government have a tendency to worry about their image more than anything else and have a track record of cover ups.

 

[brty]

Perchance I was in the emergency ward, not by choice, a day (could have been 2) after the first Swine Flu case in Australia died. I was also in the hospital where this person had been officially diagnosed a few days earlier, he was then transferred.

There was pretty much blind panic going on in the facility. A doctor turned up and ordered the immediate release of EVERYONE in the emergency ward. There were people there for a variety of emergency conditions, none of which were Swine Flu.
Basically every other condition was suddenly deemed minor, so people went without the appropriate treatment and care.

I imagine something similar will happen all over the country when we start getting community spread.

 

[sptrawler]

I just went for a bike ride to other side of the city I live in here in Shikoku, Japan, to do some shopping. I noticed a lot more people than usual wearing sick masks today, around 25%-30% of people, none of them were N95 masks.

I also talked to a couple of the locals I know here and they were saying that people are getting more worried about the whole situation.

The thing is people here do not take days off sick unless they have go to hospital as their work places and home budgetary requirements do not allow it.

So far I have heard of cases in Tokyo, Hokkaido and anecdotally in Osaka. The governments official statistics seem to have tapered off over the last few days but I do not trust them as the government have a tendency to worry about their image more than anything else and have a track record of cover ups.

I was in Kochi in early December on the Diamond Princess, lovely area, jeez I missed a bullet by not being there for this outbreak.
Talk about a close call.
It must be having a huge effect on tourism in Japan, fergee.

 

[Sdajii]

I just went for a bike ride to other side of the city I live in here in Shikoku, Japan, to do some shopping. I noticed a lot more people than usual wearing sick masks today, around 25%-30% of people, none of them were N95 masks.

I also talked to a couple of the locals I know here and they were saying that people are getting more worried about the whole situation.

The thing is people here do not take days off sick unless they have go to hospital as their work places and home budgetary requirements do not allow it.

So far I have heard of cases in Tokyo, Hokkaido and anecdotally in Osaka. The governments official statistics seem to have tapered off over the last few days but I do not trust them as the government have a tendency to worry about their image more than anything else and have a track record of cover ups.

I'm interested in your last statement. Obviously many countries are underreporting and can't be trusted any more than a priest with a child, but I would have thought Japan would be quite genuine and accurate with its figures. Do you think this isn't the case?

 

[fergee]

I'm interested in your last statement. Obviously many countries are underreporting and can't be trusted any more than a priest with a child, but I would have thought Japan would be quite genuine and accurate with its figures. Do you think this isn't the case?

No, I don't think that is the case. I have lived here for 3.5 years, the image Japan portrays to the world through soft power and paid marketing and the reality of life in Japan are two totally different things.

 

[fergee]

I was in Kochi in early December on the Diamond Princess, lovely area, jeez I missed a bullet by not being there for this outbreak.
Talk about a close call.
It must be having a huge effect on tourism in Japan, fergee.

You were on the Diamond princess..... in Japan Jeez mate you dodged two bullets must have had your dancing shoes on.

Kochi is nice I have been there a couple of times. I live in Takamatsu on the other side of Shikoku next to the Seto inland sea.

Tourism is taking a bit of a hit because there noticeably less Chinese, there are still a few around though, as this is the off peak season here. I have noticed very few future bookings from chinese at the air b and b I work for in the next few months, had a few Aussies though recently that was awesome!

Spring is peak season when people come to see the cherry blossoms. I imagine the numbers will be down and Hana mi gatherings will be less common which is a shame as theres nothing like a picnic under the cherry blossom trees drinking a bit of sake mid day

 

[Smurf1976]

Ok so the government has some specific plans to deal with a full blown pandemic.
Quite commendable.

Not just the federal government either.

When I was in Tas one of the "disaster" scenarios considered at work was "pandemic" along with various others relating to major incidents of various kinds (major accidents, technical failures, structural failures, natural disaster etc anything of a dramatic impact that would not be seen as routine).

I can't disclose any detail, it's all confidential, but suffice to say the basic concepts of how to deal with that sort of thing are all worked out, it just needs adapting to the detail of the specific incident as it unfolds but the principles to be applied are already sorted.

 

[Smurf1976]

Perchance I was in the emergency ward, not by choice, a day (could have been 2) after the first Swine Flu case in Australia died.

Swine Flu was most unpleasant.

I know because I caught it. Spent a week lying flat on my back and I mean that literally - flat on the floor looking at the ceiling was the only place that was even remotely comfortable. Miserable it was.

 

[Sdajii]

Swine Flu was most unpleasant.

I know because I caught it. Spent a week lying flat on my back and I mean that literally - flat on the floor looking at the ceiling was the only place that was even remotely comfortable. Miserable it was.

I had swine flu, I got lucky, it was just a week off work, wasn't feeling too great but was well enough to sit at the computer and watch the stocks, read ASF, sit on the couch and watch movies, etc. Not pleasant by any stretch but not even the worst flu I'd ever had. Everyone gets hit differently like this bug ranging between basically no symptoms through to death. Swine flu was similar in that way.

 

[Sdajii]

No, I don't think that is the case. I have lived here for 3.5 years, the image Japan portrays to the world through soft power and paid marketing and the reality of life in Japan are two totally different things.

I'm surprised to read this, thanks for your input. I've spent all of about a month in Japan so don't have any first hand knowledge like you do. I'll have to ask some of my friends living in Japan (including native Japanese). It'll be interesting to hear what they say. In a way, someone like yourself has a better perspective than a native because you're less likely to have loyalty/bias, but at the same time, it's hard to match the local knowledge of a local. Thanks for your post.

 

[fergee]

I'm surprised to read this, thanks for your input. I've spent all of about a month in Japan so don't have any first hand knowledge like you do. I'll have to ask some of my friends living in Japan (including native Japanese). It'll be interesting to hear what they say. In a way, someone like yourself has a better perspective than a native because you're less likely to have loyalty/bias, but at the same time, it's hard to match the local knowledge of a local. Thanks for your post.

Totally agree the locals have a much better understanding than I ever could. The question would be are they willing to be totally honest about things as they may not want to lose face saying anything negative about their country. I find a couple of drinks usually gets the honesty out of my Japanese friends to the point where I have seen them be quite frank with their boss's! I would be very interested to hear what your friends there have to say.

@Sdajii and @Smurf1976 great to hear about, although Im sure not great for you at the time, your experiences with swine flu knowing you both had a varying experience and are still alive makes me feel a bit better right now for some reason.

 

[fergee]

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-worlds-biggest-exporters-2018

https://howmuch.net/articles/countries-with-the-biggest-forex-reserves

A few of these countries are looking a bit fragile when comparing export revenue to FX reserves. Could be a bit of a capital crunch coming and a que forming up to get a loan from the IMF

 

[tinhat]

I assume it's already been said (I'm not going to go through this thread to verify), there is no reason to think of economic implications to death regardless of scale. Good evening.

 

[Sdajii]

Totally agree the locals have a much better understanding than I ever could. The question would be are they willing to be totally honest about things as they may not want to lose face saying anything negative about their country. I find a couple of drinks usually gets the honesty out of my Japanese friends to the point where I have seen them be quite frank with their boss's! I would be very interested to hear what your friends there have to say.

@Sdajii and @Smurf1976 great to hear about, although Im sure not great for you at the time, your experiences with swine flu knowing you both had a varying experience and are still alive makes me feel a bit better right now for some reason.

I've done some talking with friends and have basically confirmed what you have said. Japan is more likely to be honest than most countries but not to the extent I had guessed, or to the extent most western folks would.

As I said, I have been to Japan and have Japanese friends and am aware of how to interpret them. My first time in Japan I wanted to try whale, I asked many people and they all said they didn't know where to get it, it's very rare and probably impossible to find. A couple of years later I had friends close enough to tell me the truth. I've spent a total of about 5 years in Asia and am well familiar with the extreme 'saving face' culture in many countries, and that my above question would get a different answer if I just asked random Japanese people or less close friends. Japanese are definitely more convincing liars than most Asians too!

As for swine flu, don't let it make you complacent. Swine flu had an approximate fatality rate of about 0.1%. Officially covid 19 is around 2% but the official figures are around 3,000 deaths and 80,000 infections, mostly still active. Even if we were to believe that every single one of the current cases would result in recovery, we get more than a 2% mortality rate. In reality, there are probably many more undocumented mild cases than undocumented deaths, but also, many of the currently active cases will result in death. The real figure could be 10-15% (very difficult to say, since it's still early days with what limited information we have being very unreliable). It's far more contagious than SARS and far more deadly than swine flu and will definitely have a far larger global impact than either. Don't be too scared, the mortality rate among anyone who is healthy and not elderly will be quite low. My mother is in her late 70s and a hardcore anti vaxer, but I'd say even she will probably live to see 2022.

 

[sptrawler]

I assume it's already been said (I'm not going to go through this thread to verify), there is no reason to think of economic implications to death regardless of scale. Good evening.

Unfortunately it is difficult to be a good trader, when you let emotions get involved, I know I've missed many opportunities because I thought it didn't sit well or may ruin a friendship down the track.
In hindsight it has cost me millions truly, but I still have my friend and I still can sleep at night.
And probably why I'm still not a trader.

 

[tinhat]

Unfortunately it is difficult to be a good trader, when you let emotions get involved, I know I've missed many opportunities because I thought it didn't sit well or may ruin a friendship down the track.
In hindsight it has cost me millions truly, but I still have my friend and I still can sleep at night.
And probably why I'm still not a trader.

Mate you know better than me how to be a "good person". It's not just money right?