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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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Alright here's your week:




And here's the kind of swing plays that have been available recently. Just three trades would have you at near 300% return:

Sell your banks position anywhere high up on the curve here:



Sell your tech holdings and dive back into the banks here:



And then flog your bank holdings where indicated above and rebuy into tech gets you here:



Reason?

Bond yields:




Someone earlier asked if growth's day was over, whether it could make a comeback etc etc.

Here's your answer:




And we still have tons of "better than expected" data to come pouring in:

 
Some AU data, particularly relevant with this delta variant and lockdowns etc:



There's a LOT of concern that the RBA is going to pull the rug out right as this delta variant smashes us.


FWIW, the moderna vaccine (the one that can be transported in a normal freezer) appears to be extremely effective against the delta variant.
 
Israel's adult population is 81% vaccinated, but they have problems. Will Australia be different? Just food for thought.

Highly Vaccinated Israel Has a Nagging Coronavirus Problem

The Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is spreading in Israel, including among fully vaccinated people.
thevaccinereaction.org
and before you attack the source, I like to look at both sides of an argument. One-eyed in any direction is looking for trouble.
 
from main reliable news, nearly half of their covid deaths were vaccinated, and that was last week, so probably worsening now.
"Pfizer" vaccine in israel...
It will take another 2 or 3 years and trillions wasted $, zillions extra deaths and ruined lives etc to admit it is a "really bad and nasty" flu.
As the world has seen many
After the first 6m, we could have managed it instead of that maddening overreaction and manipulation
Expect some (sad) consequences as our governments and its servants(media, big tech, political egos) have fully discredited sciences ; we will see it backlash with all the alarmist CC hysteria I think.
Hopefully, this will allow real scientists to speak,but I would not bet 2c on this
The worst bit now is that in case of a really bad pandemic (which will happen sooner or later) we will be wiped out for crying wolf too much for that relatively benign one, and we still have not a single extra hospital bed....
But no, it is not over.
Like the plan from PM: defuse the heat with "vaccination"..not solving much but good to reassure people after ramping it so much, a few populist measures..slow travels, etc and then manage it, or suck it up.
As good as can be coming from where we are
Latest news: we are not immortal.
 
Bonds (inflation) still dropping:




So tech keeps running even when everything else gets smashed:



Note how the day was deep into the red until bonds flipped on the data, so stocks then flipped in the expected opposite direction:




And check out the correlation between zoom & the nasdaq:



Often an almost perfect 1.00 correlation with TQQQ, with most of the time spent over the 0.75 mark.
 
I guess the title of the thread is with regards to the macro economic implications of SARS-COV2.

There may be micro economic implications too.

Generally if I buy a good or a service I'm looking for a pretty pleasant experience. 99% of the time I'm a pretty jovial fellow in my interactions with business owners and being in a service industry myself, do my best not only to give quality service, but also to try to have my customers feel good about what I have done on a psychological level.

I'm pretty sure that most people, like me, like to be appreciated for their business.

Recently for a host of other reasons I've been up a lot more selective on who I will give my business to. However with the most recent bout of bed-wetting, I have a new criteria for selection of who I will do business with.

I fully appreciate that businesses need to fulfil there regulatory obligations with regard to to lock downs and track and trace and whatnot. I don't want businesses to endure large and ridiculous fines... So I grit my teeth put the stupid face nappy on and log in with the Orwellian app.

But I don't want to be treated either like a leper or as a potential criminal... Gradually having crossing businesses off who I will never give my business ever again on this basis.

And here is the newest load of bollox.

Finished early today so stopped in to a grog shop to pick up a couple of beers (going to meet up with a veterinary colleague to discuss a few cases and and plant how our future collaborations should look like).

Despite being masked, mobile phone in hand with app open ready to scan the QR code,and being a regular customer, I was asked to present photo ID as well.

Well guess which grog shop will be missing out on my substantive alcohol expenditure from now on?

Guess which grog shop (who was welcoming and pretty chilled about everything) gets my business from now on?

We've got a pretty big messenger group and all have experienced this as well in the last few days. All will be changing their buying habits similarly to myself.

I will be watching these businesses with interest to see how they fare.
 
Probably just your youthfull looks
 
I know what you mean, I went to the local on Sat to catch up with the guys and the bosses son said you have to wait outside as there are 20 inside FFS, I said how would you know you have your shoes on. ? He threatened to ban me, weird sod.
In W.A it is really getting beyond the joke, one case who is in quarantine and everyone has to start the 'Simon says' game.
 
wayneL said:
I will be watching these businesses with interest to see how they fare.
Click to expand...
Being cancelled will teach him.

Let us know when he goes broke and loses his house so we can all celebrate.
 
Knobby22 said:
Being cancelled will teach him.

Let us know when he goes broke and loses his house so we can all celebrate.
Click to expand...
Well that's the reality of business isn't it, Knobby. If I treat my clients poorly, I lose clients to someone who doesn't. Unless you proposing I am obligated to support poor customer experience in favour of good? Is this some new form of twisted fascism?

BTW, I think we all know there are plenty who've lost their business and house because they weren't *allowed* to open and multinationals refuse to lower their rent.
 
But its not just personal is it? You are all organised on snapchat to weaken businesses who try to enforce the lockdown laws during a lockdown when they are at their weakest.

In Melbourne, we have been doing special things to help the businesses survive during the lockdowns, those lucky of us to still be working. The idea is to support small business as much as possible. In my area we had a Eat out Thursday where we deliberately tried to help the small business people., bought takeaway from the struggling restaurants and pubs, bought flowers from the florist. And most of us did the right thing to try to stop spreading the virus so the lockdown ends quicker.
 
"But its not just personal is it? You are all organised on snapchat to weaken businesses who try to enforce the lockdown laws during a lockdown when they are at their weakest."
are you becoming a Basilio @Knobby22? a bit disappointed...
 
That's what I understood. They are making a list of businesses to target.

We've got a pretty big messenger group and all have experienced this as well in the last few days. All will be changing their buying habits similarly to myself.

I will be watching these businesses with interest to see how they fare.

My parents lost their house and business during the "recession we had to have" so I know what it's like. Not nice.
 
who are "they"? You were replying to Wayne, and in my books, using "they" is a kind of
us vs them, with implied "we have truth with us"...
"They" the Chineses, the abos, the boomers, etc etc etc
"They" the enemy in the war, etc etc
I know the woke leftist vocabulary is definitively going that way but i expected better ?
Not comfortable with you using that denomination: while we can disagree, you (sic) have not joined my blocked list and I do not intent to
Have a great day
I do boycott businesses who offer bad services and enter appropriate reviews if need be.no witch hunt
 
OK, I apologise. have the wrong end of the stick.
 
Oh dear @Knobby22 you have truly adopted the packets of the extreme left.

How did a group of farriers who communicate with each other as colleagues on Facebook messenger, become an organised Snapchat hit squad with the express purpose forcing businesses to go broke?

And you criticize the Murdochs?

How is this any different from the self messenger group consulting with each other on the best source of raw materials for our business?

Additionally, as the group is Australia wide in all sorts of locations both metro and rural, it is unlikely that any of us will be using the same shops as per what I mentioned in my post above.

Yep this group can really collude and cause some grog shop in the Perth suburbs to go broke. Pulleeeze.

I would posit to you that the shop owner himself will be responsible for his own misfortune if he treats his customers poorly.

Business 101
 
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