Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

This is ominous. It was a different situation but this feels like the time I started watching the attack on the twin Towers as it unfolded
So literally over a few hours one saw the hits on the towers, the attack on the Pentagon, the other plane that was hijacked , the collapse of the towers.

This is not as quick but the rapidly escalating infection and death rates across multiple sites is unnerving. Also having checked out Chris site there seems far more evidence of widespread infections than we might realise at first glance.

Please read the story above .

I think the markets are in for another beating tomorrow.
 
This is ominous. It was a different situation but this feels like the time I started watching the attack on the twin Towers as it unfolded
So literally over a few hours one saw the hits on the towers, the attack on the Pentagon, the other plane that was hijacked , the collapse of the towers.

This is not as quick but the rapidly escalating infection and death rates across multiple sites is unnerving. Also having checked out Chris site there seems far more evidence of widespread infections than we might realise at first glance.

Please read the story above .

I think the markets are in for another beating tomorrow.
I think it has the potential, to put global warming on the back page for a while.
 
From the Chris Martenson Friday 14th article comments section
Mon, Feb 17, 2020 - 6:17pm

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Sparky1
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Pandemic waves: "seeding" Covid-2019 via travelers, military; then self-sustaining community transmissions
The CDC reported the first human-to-human (H2H) Covid-2019 transmission in the US on Jan. 30th. I wonder how many of the 15 confirmed US cases to date are from H2H transmission vs. “imported” from travelers passing through China or other Asian countries. Dr. Gabriel Leung’s research projected the global infection rate would increase exponentially as the virus became self-spreading after initially being “seeded” in countries by Covid-2019 imported from travelers from China.

We should expect the numbers of “seed” Covid-2019 cases to increase with the influx of repatriated US citizens from other countries and cruise ships, as well as from the military given that they’ve quarantined their at-risk personnel and their families/close contacts effective Feb. 2nd. These “seed” cases from travelers might be considered the first wave of infections. I think that first wave of “seed” infections is well underway, but is being minimized by the “authorities”.

A second, much larger wave is likely to be among close contacts with those “seed” travelers. I think that second wave has already begun and the public is being kept in the dark for the most part about these cases. Thereafter, I think a third wave of infections will come from incidental contacts among the general public. This wave will result in massive numbers of cases as the virus spreads throughout small to large geographic regions.

For approximately 12 weeks from the estimated start date of the first Covid-2019 case (mid-Nov. 2019 – Feb. 1, 2020) there was no attempt to curtail exposure of thousands of military personnel, contractors, and their families from the coronavirus abroad. As of Feb. 2, those troops and close contacts that were potentially exposed in Covid-2019 hotspots were to be quarantined for 14 days here in the US and abroad. Regardless of whether 14 days is a sufficient time for quarantine, these asymptomatic and/or test negative military personnel and their contacts would be scheduled for release this week or soon after.

I believe there’s an information blackout concerning military Covid-2019 cases that would have already started presenting by now. This blackout would be imposed so as not to alert enemies of potential US military vulnerability, as well as to not alarm the public. Note that 14 military bases (that we know of) and other facilities are being used to quarantine repatriated US citizens.

So along with universities, we might add military bases and communities in which they are located to the growing list of potential Covid-2019 hotspots. We should be on the lookout for reports from military insiders such as family members and health care workers in the days and weeks ahead as this virus spreads.
 
Its an interesting thesis Smurf but i wonder if countries have the basic industrial infrastructure to go back to pre China days ?
It would have to be rebuilt and would come with a period of disruption.

Without wanting to derail the thread to an oil one, I'll post this chart of oil production however to illustrate what I'm on about:

World_Oil_Production.png

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/World_Oil_Production.png

As a short explanation, from about 1958 onwards oil rapidly gained market share as fuel for industry, power generation, heating and so on primarily at the expense of coal which by the 1960's was on the way out. That plus rising use of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel drove the huge increase in oil consumption.

Now look what happened after 1973. There was a brief resurgence but ultimately the previous trend never returned and almost certainly never will now. By the end of the 70's the oil consumption boom had given way to a boom in anything but oil - pick up any publication relating to energy from that era and it's a given that it'll be all about "the oil problem" and focused on anything and everything that produces heat or keeps the lights on so long as it's not oil. Meanwhile sales of smaller cars were booming and those without suitable models were struggling big time.

For a more recent example, just start looking at long term charts of random ASX listed companies using whatever your normal charting software is. Look at charts going back 20+ years. Just quickly look at them, company after company, say a couple of hundred with a few seconds looking at each.

You'll find no shortage of companies that are still not even remotely close to recovering their pre-GFC highs more than a decade after the event. Indeed if your charts go back far enough then you'll be able to find stocks which still haven't recovered from the 1987 crash either.

With all those examples have in common is that a single event produced a permanent change such that the previous trend never returned.

Once countries like Japan and France, or closer to home WA, saw the danger in having their electricity supply dependent on oil shipped from the Middle East they decided they'd better change that quickly and permanently so they did.

Likewise once the GFC occurred plenty of companies either went under themselves, survived but badly bruised, or survived as such but investors are far more wary of the underlying business and its inherent risks than they were previously and have valued the stock accordingly.

I'm seeing this virus in that context. Made in China is all of a sudden much like oil-fired electricity or low doc loans. All of a sudden it looks awfully risky to be relying on it as a major component of your own business with no plan B. There's no putting that genie back in the bottle once it's out.

So I'm foreseeing something akin to the response to the 1973 oil crisis. Nothing happened in the blink of an eye but ultimately oil stopped gaining market share and the focus shifted to alternatives.

Made in China won't disappear tomorrow but if someone's building a factory, well I expect they're going to be thinking long and hard about this risk now and contemplating where it ought to be located. End result is the growth of manufacturing in China will never return to what it previously was, the trend line will be permanently broken.

Just my thoughts on it all assuming it does get worse in terms of numbers of infected people etc. :2twocents

(PS: Off-topic note for those with an interest in oil itself. That chart is for crude oil only - it doesn't include natural gas liquids, natural bitumen etc hence won't add up to the same figure as some other statistics which do include these).
 
It would have to be rebuilt and would come with a period of disruption.

Without wanting to derail the thread to an oil one, I'll post this chart of oil production however to illustrate what I'm on about:

World_Oil_Production.png

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/World_Oil_Production.png

As a short explanation, from about 1958 onwards oil rapidly gained market share as fuel for industry, power generation, heating and so on primarily at the expense of coal which by the 1960's was on the way out. That plus rising use of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel drove the huge increase in oil consumption.

Now look what happened after 1973. There was a brief resurgence but ultimately the previous trend never returned and almost certainly never will now. By the end of the 70's the oil consumption boom had given way to a boom in anything but oil - pick up any publication relating to energy from that era and it's a given that it'll be all about "the oil problem" and focused on anything and everything that produces heat or keeps the lights on so long as it's not oil. Meanwhile sales of smaller cars were booming and those without suitable models were struggling big time.

For a more recent example, just start looking at long term charts of random ASX listed companies using whatever your normal charting software is. Look at charts going back 20+ years. Just quickly look at them, company after company, say a couple of hundred with a few seconds looking at each.

You'll find no shortage of companies that are still not even remotely close to recovering their pre-GFC highs more than a decade after the event. Indeed if your charts go back far enough then you'll be able to find stocks which still haven't recovered from the 1987 crash either.

With all those examples have in common is that a single event produced a permanent change such that the previous trend never returned.

Once countries like Japan and France, or closer to home WA, saw the danger in having their electricity supply dependent on oil shipped from the Middle East they decided they'd better change that quickly and permanently so they did.

Likewise once the GFC occurred plenty of companies either went under themselves, survived but badly bruised, or survived as such but investors are far more wary of the underlying business and its inherent risks than they were previously and have valued the stock accordingly.

I'm seeing this virus in that context. Made in China is all of a sudden much like oil-fired electricity or low doc loans. All of a sudden it looks awfully risky to be relying on it as a major component of your own business with no plan B. There's no putting that genie back in the bottle once it's out.

So I'm foreseeing something akin to the response to the 1973 oil crisis. Nothing happened in the blink of an eye but ultimately oil stopped gaining market share and the focus shifted to alternatives.

Made in China won't disappear tomorrow but if someone's building a factory, well I expect they're going to be thinking long and hard about this risk now and contemplating where it ought to be located. End result is the growth of manufacturing in China will never return to what it previously was, the trend line will be permanently broken.

Just my thoughts on it all assuming it does get worse in terms of numbers of infected people etc. :2twocents

(PS: Off-topic note for those with an interest in oil itself. That chart is for crude oil only - it doesn't include natural gas liquids, natural bitumen etc hence won't add up to the same figure as some other statistics which do include these).
Like we said early in this thread, those companies waiting for their furniture, T.V's, Aliexpress and ebay stuff to arrive, will be running out of lies, the two month wait will already be up and a lot of customers will be asking for their money back.
Travel agents will start and have trouble selling a trip to anywhere, I read that Israel has put a two week quarantine on people arriving from Australia, so how many people are going to risk travelling, when they could end up in a holding pen somewhere in the World.
Interesting times.
 
It would have to be rebuilt and would come with a period of disruption.

Without wanting to derail the thread to an oil one, I'll post this chart of oil production however to illustrate what I'm on about:

World_Oil_Production.png

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/World_Oil_Production.png

As a short explanation, from about 1958 onwards oil rapidly gained market share as fuel for industry, power generation, heating and so on primarily at the expense of coal which by the 1960's was on the way out. That plus rising use of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel drove the huge increase in oil consumption.

Now look what happened after 1973. There was a brief resurgence but ultimately the previous trend never returned and almost certainly never will now. By the end of the 70's the oil consumption boom had given way to a boom in anything but oil - pick up any publication relating to energy from that era and it's a given that it'll be all about "the oil problem" and focused on anything and everything that produces heat or keeps the lights on so long as it's not oil. Meanwhile sales of smaller cars were booming and those without suitable models were struggling big time.

For a more recent example, just start looking at long term charts of random ASX listed companies using whatever your normal charting software is. Look at charts going back 20+ years. Just quickly look at them, company after company, say a couple of hundred with a few seconds looking at each.

You'll find no shortage of companies that are still not even remotely close to recovering their pre-GFC highs more than a decade after the event. Indeed if your charts go back far enough then you'll be able to find stocks which still haven't recovered from the 1987 crash either.

With all those examples have in common is that a single event produced a permanent change such that the previous trend never returned.

Once countries like Japan and France, or closer to home WA, saw the danger in having their electricity supply dependent on oil shipped from the Middle East they decided they'd better change that quickly and permanently so they did.

Likewise once the GFC occurred plenty of companies either went under themselves, survived but badly bruised, or survived as such but investors are far more wary of the underlying business and its inherent risks than they were previously and have valued the stock accordingly.

I'm seeing this virus in that context. Made in China is all of a sudden much like oil-fired electricity or low doc loans. All of a sudden it looks awfully risky to be relying on it as a major component of your own business with no plan B. There's no putting that genie back in the bottle once it's out.

So I'm foreseeing something akin to the response to the 1973 oil crisis. Nothing happened in the blink of an eye but ultimately oil stopped gaining market share and the focus shifted to alternatives.

Made in China won't disappear tomorrow but if someone's building a factory, well I expect they're going to be thinking long and hard about this risk now and contemplating where it ought to be located. End result is the growth of manufacturing in China will never return to what it previously was, the trend line will be permanently broken.

Just my thoughts on it all assuming it does get worse in terms of numbers of infected people etc. :2twocents

(PS: Off-topic note for those with an interest in oil itself. That chart is for crude oil only - it doesn't include natural gas liquids, natural bitumen etc hence won't add up to the same figure as some other statistics which do include these).
YES. I was thinking along a similar line but I like the way you said it @Smurf1976
 
Quick question.

How would people who are quarantined for weeks on end and unable to go to work financially survive ? The realty is that most people do live from pay to pay. There was a dreadful example of a Chinese family who became homeless and left their child at an orphanage in the extended quarantine in Hubei.

Chris Martensen made this point and said governments need to be prepared to basically keep people solvent in this crisis. It is in no ones interest to see widespread instant homelessness and incapacity to buy food, pay bills.

I guess that's what sick leave is for if people have it.

If a business refuses to pay up, then yes there should be some government assistance or regulation that businesses must pay, in line with the back pay issue.
 
I guess that's what sick leave is for if people have it.

If a business refuses to pay up, then yes there should be some government assistance or regulation that businesses must pay, in line with the back pay issue.
Ahhh the left ..... @SirRumpole, they refuse to pay because they will have no cashflow left
So if the government make them pay they get broke...
.a great win for the workers and the country indeed...
 
@Smurf1976 about the analogy with oil crisis, i think this is only valid if the virus stays confined to China, basically if everything get sorted next week and the damages are limited to what has been done so far.
You say
Just my thoughts on it all assuming it does get worse in terms of numbers of infected people etc.
I would disagree as if it gets worse...as it seems now, people will not care about getting their amart furnitures or solar installed/ebay delivery arriving
They will care about staying alive or having an hospital bed for their wife
 
Probably a good idea to post up some links:

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The new coronavirus outbreak has made headlines in recent weeks, but there's another viral epidemic hitting countries around the world: flu season. But how do these viruses compare, and which one is really more worrisome?

So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about COVID-19 because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause.

Related: Get live updates on new coronavirus

"Despite the morbidity and mortality with influenza, there's a certainty … of seasonal flu," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a White House press conference on Jan. 31. "I can tell you all, guaranteed, that as we get into March and April, the flu cases are going to go down. You could predict pretty accurately what the range of the mortality is and the hospitalizations [will be]," Fauci said. "The issue now with [COVID-19] is that there's a lot of unknowns."

Scientists are racing to find out more about COVID-19, and our understanding of the virus and the threat it poses may change as new information becomes available. Based on what we know so far, here's how it compares with the flu.

Symptoms and severity
Both seasonal flu viruses (which include influenza A and influenza B viruses) and COVID-19 are contagious viruses that cause respiratory illness.

Typical flu symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches, runny or stuffy nose, fatigue and, sometimes, vomiting and diarrhea, according to the CDC. Flu symptoms often come on suddenly. Most people who get the flu will recover in less than two weeks. But in some people, the flu causes complications, including pneumonia. So far this flu season, about 1% of people in the United States have developed symptoms severe enough to be hospitalized, which is similar to the rate last season, according to data from the CDC.

With COVID-19, doctors are still trying to understand the full picture of disease symptoms and severity. In a small study of about 100 people with the virus, published Jan. 30 in the journal The Lancet, the most common symptoms were fever, cough and shortness of breath. Only about 5% of patients in that study reported sore throat and runny nose, and only 1-2% reported diarrhea, nausea and vomiting.

In a more recent study, considered the largest on COVID-19 cases to date, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, analyzed 44,672 confirmed cases in China between Dec. 31, 09 and Feb. 11, 2020. Of those cases, 80.9% (or 36,160 cases) were considered mild, 13.8% (6,168 cases) severe and 4.7% (2,087) critical. "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure," the researchers wrote in the paper published in China CDC Weekly.

It's important to note that, because respiratory viruses cause similar symptoms, it can be difficult to distinguish different respiratory viruses based on symptoms alone, according to WHO.

Death rate
So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.

The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date.
Virus transmission
The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science previously reported.

Risk of infection
The CDC estimates that, on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick with the flu each season.

There are currently 29 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. Still, newly emerged viruses like this one are always of public health concern, according to the CDC. It's unclear how the situation with this virus in the U.S. will unfold, the agency said. Some people, such as health care workers, are at increased risk for exposure to COVID-19. But for the general American public, the immediate health risk from the virus is low at this time.

Pandemics

It's important to note that seasonal flu, which causes outbreaks every year, should not be confused with pandemic flu, or a global outbreak of a new flu virus that is very different from the strains that typically circulate. This happened in 2009 with the swine flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 151,000 and 575,000 people worldwide, according to the CDC. There is no flu pandemic happening currently.

The COVID-19 outbreak has not yet been declared a pandemic, as the majority of cases have occurred in China. But on Jan. 30, the WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern." The declaration was primarily due to concern that the virus could spread to countries with weaker health systems.

Prevention
Unlike seasonal flu, for which there is a vaccine to protect against infection, there is no vaccine for COVID-19. But researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health are in the early stages of developing one. Officials plan to launch a phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine for COVID-19 within the next three months.

In general, the CDC recommends the following to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, which include both coronaviruses and flu viruses: Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands; avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick; and clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces
 
I'm undecided as to how bad COVID 19 will be. At the moment the scare campaign is worse imo. It's hard to get a gauge on overall. Doesn't mean you don't prep though and I think being informed is the best way.

But I think the financial ramifications may be worse than I first thought. Our economy is already burdened with large amounts of negatives. Everything comes from China and there was always a huge danger to that. Every business is stocking Chinese crap. Aussie manufacturing might see a boost.
But this is one more nail in the coffin of business.
This is still in the early stages. So we get all the horror stories of the virus blowing through all these other countries. It will have a huge affect on fear.

As morbid as it is, opportunity awaits in these kinds of disasters....
 
Like we said early in this thread, those companies waiting for their furniture, T.V's, Aliexpress and ebay stuff to arrive, will be running out of lies, the two month wait will already be up and a lot of customers will be asking for their money back.
Travel agents will start and have trouble selling a trip to anywhere, I read that Israel has put a two week quarantine on people arriving from Australia, so how many people are going to risk travelling, when they could end up in a holding pen somewhere in the World.
Interesting times.
It looks as though it is already starting to kick in.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ail-as-businesses-face-serious-pinch/11996316
From the article:
The coronavirus outbreak is starting to make normally unremarkable, everyday retail purchases more difficult, as factories remain shut in China.

Key points:
  • Cracks in supply chains involving parts from China are widening
  • From guitars to bikes to hardware, retailers are feeling the pinch
  • Businesses say they're worried what will happen if the crisis continues


Parts are being delayed or are simply not available for products and repairs that are usually taken for granted.

From guitar parts to bike accessories to hardware and tools, occasional gaps are beginning to appear on shelves.

And retailers are also concerned that stocks built up before the Chinese New Year will dwindle in coming weeks, and may even not be replaced
.
 
And the next cab off the rank, with supply problems.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ner-to-postpone-dividend-20200225-p5440b.html
From the article:
Fashion retailer Mosaic Brands is facing a new challenge, with the coronavirus outbreak threatening to have a material impact on the ASX-listed retailer.

Shares fell 13 per cent to $1.56 on Tuesday after the company told investors it had postponed its declaration of an interim dividend until the full impact of the COVID-19 virus could be assessed.

The company –which owns fashion brands such as Noni B, Rivers, and Katies – said its supply chain has seen a "minor impact" for deliveries in February as production levels remained low due to thousands of closed factories.

"The group is now working with its suppliers to ensure minimal delays for winter product. Should delays prove to be material, sales during the early winter season, including the key Mother’s Day period, could be affected," Mosaic warned
.
 
@Smurf1976 about the analogy with oil crisis, i think this is only valid if the virus stays confined to China, basically if everything get sorted next week and the damages are limited to what has been done so far.
You say

I would disagree as if it gets worse...as it seems now, people will not care about getting their amart furnitures or solar installed/ebay delivery arriving
They will care about staying alive or having an hospital bed for their wife

The point I'm thinking of is the long term one.

Suppose that your scenario plays out (and I think there's at least some chance it will) then what will be the long term effect? If someone looks back at this in the year 2050 then what do they see?

Do they see a minor blip akin to a recession after which all previous trends resumed? In 2050 most things are "Made in China", most people routinely travel internationally and broad economic and social trends that were in place prior to 2020 resumed after the virus crisis had passed?

Or do they see a permanent inflection point on the chart for all sorts of things from cruise ship passenger numbers through to the growth of Chinese manufacturing? A point where the trend changed and never went back to how it was previously?

My comparison with the 1973-74 oil crisis is of the latter scenario. 46 years later and oil's still very much around but the previous growth trend never returned. Things were never the same after the crisis compared to before it and I do think that there's some chance of a similar situation playing out here. A situation where only in hindsight we'll realise that some things never returned to the previous trend - cruise ships would be an obvious one with that risk.:2twocents
 
The updates on The Guardians website re the Corona virus continue to be disturbing.
Threat of widespread bankruptcy across Chines businesses, closing of schools in Hong Kong, massive drops in China industrial output to date, real concerns about the safety of athletes for the Olympics.

Coronavirus live updates: fourth Diamond Princess passenger dies as Japan closes some schools
Concerns mount that the spread of Covid-19 cannot be stopped as stock markets fall amid investor fears. Follow latest news
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...na-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls
 
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