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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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over9k said:
You'll like this one @qldfrog



There is a reason why the stock market just keeps running and running and running.
Click to expand...
between that and the screwing of elections by the Biden clique, I think it is a call to arms in my view for Americans.
This created misery has been orchestrated and we are not immune here.
 
Alright total snoozefest of a day guys. This screencap really describes it perfectly:



Nasdaq up,r2k flat, others in the red:



Just a very basic/light pullback from the madness of last week to go a bit more defensive, out of energy etc etc. Totally healthy. Light volume as well as everyone's doing what I'm doing too: really just waiting to see what happens next now - virus numbers continue to climb but so does the stimulus stuff etc. I mentioned previously I'm about 20% cash at the moment. Bought some TAN today, that's it.

Nasdaq up but sp500 & dow red and r2k flat means barbell spread was once again the way to be.


So, with the nasdaq up but everything else down, the fangs obviously surged:



Semiconductors kept running because they just always go up in this market:



The one to watch is zoom. After the vaccine, it was a golden child running in parallel with fngu (and fngu is triple levered) but plummeted after its earnings report even though it smashed estimates, and has just flatlined ever since:




Which I suspect is the market doing exactly what I'm doing with it - waiting and seeing. It'll obviously be the post-pandemic earnings reports which are really telling but they're obviously a solid 6+ months away. It might make sense to move the money into something else and then come back to zoom later. We'll see.


I suspect the news is going to be no news for a while until we get either something on stimulus or more vaccine emergency use/deployment info. The fangs, semiconductors, and the r2k have been great places to be either way so I'm continuing to hold.
 
More oil info:


  • Looking at percentages of fleet utilised in floating storage as of October 6, the Suezmax class is down by half from a high of 12% to 6%, Aframax are down by more than half from a high of 14% to 6% and other tanker segments have reverted close to pre-pandemic levels according to Vortexa data. Market participants have expressed doubts towards a resurgence of interest in floating storage with the most recent flurry of time-charter bookings simply a roll-over of existing bookings at much more favourable rates for charterers.
  • The volume of crude oil in floating storage is also on the decline. Having peaked at 27.8 mn mt in July 2020, offshore crude inventories have since fallen to 16.6 mn mt in floating storage as of October 6, a decrease of 40% from its yearly high. The bulk of offshore crude inventory remains concentrated in Asia, accounting for more than 80% of total volumes, or 13.5 mn mt.
  • Looking ahead, with Asia remaining the dominant demand region for crude markets, refiners and traders may choose to continue drawing down from existing offshore/onshore stocks, or charter a cargo from overseas. In either case, both scenarios bode ill for tanker earnings as the former will only lead to further tonnage released into the market whilst in the latter, competing tonnage will give charterers the upper hand — owners typically lower their offers to secure cargoes. On the other hand, a drawdown in crude floating storage will revive freight demand but will be capped by refining rates which is likely to stay low due to weak margins. At least for this year, Q4 strength in tanker markets may not play out to seasonal norms.
In plain english, what this is showing is how tanker rates have changed early in the year (first graph) and then what tankers are actually being used and when (2nd graph). The bottom line is that far fewer tankers are now being used, and when they are, it's only the small ones.


In other words, demand for oil has plummeted, the whole world's onshore storage is full, and onshore production can basically make up whatever small demand we now have, so there's only a few small tankers being sent here & there and that's it. If you were an oil tanker owner, you'd want to hope to christ you made your money earlier in the year as a drop in oil demand has unsurprisingly had a commensurate drop in tanker demand. They were initially being used as floating storage, but now they're not even bothering to do that.

Catch-22 for crude tanker markets - Vortexa

Catch-22 for crude tanker markets
www.vortexa.com
 


Excellent day. Everything in the green. Nasdaq & r2k were #1 & #2 yet again. Everything was in the green except the banks so the sp500 was obviously worst. Semiconductors were deep into the green again.

My next buys are PILL & BNKU.


Thanksgiving virus spread numbers are due over the weekend/monday.
 
I won't bore everyone with the details, but headlines like this are just constant:



Everything, absolutely everything to do with microchips is on backorder for months. The new AMD gpu's, the new NVIDIA ones, the new iphones, the new playstation, the new xbox, everything.
 
Don't worry: nothing to do with semiconductor,all to do with containers transport.
Walk in a kmart near you, try to order a tractor....
Shipping was stalled and the flow once stopped takes a while to restart with containers not always at the start of the chain anymore...
So a general problem for any import or imported component assembly..which is everything you can buy
 
Yes but all (most of) the chips are made in asia frog, hence them having to be imported. Most of the kids' toys etc are too.

Anything (except oil) which has to be imported is on backorder for months, and as far as I know, gadgets/tech are the biggest import.
 

Qantas lays off more workers in the wake of COVID

Is quality at the world’s safest airline about to go downhill? Probably. From The Age: Qantas has confirmed it will retrench another 2000 workers and outsource all ground handling work at major Australian airports after rejecting a bid by employees to save their jobs. The redundancies will be...
www.macrobusiness.com.au

Qantas KO's another 2,000 positions, getting it up to 8500 and counting, or about a third of its pre-pandemic workforce.
 
Mr Joyce taking the opportunity to put Qantas on the Jenny Craig diet.

A post I put in the QAN thread in June:
A buying opportunity will present before this virus is over IMO.
This is when a company needs a ruthless, cold and calculating CEO, check
 
Stimulus deadlock. Again. Everything massacred. The day even started in the green, but then...
 
I noticed Christmas lights were missing out of the local bunnings. A lot of places having trouble with stock.
 
moXJO said:
I noticed Christmas lights were missing out of the local bunnings. A lot of places having trouble with stock.
Click to expand...
Yes, @over9k was looking at the electronic side only, just wanted to highlight it is a much wider problem and may not specifically indicated a boom on these at home products
 
The economic impact of 9/11? But the world changed.
" Overnight, the nation recorded more than 3000 covid-19 deaths in a single day, a pandemic record. That’s more than the entire death toll of the 9/11 attacks in 2001 which claimed the lives of 2,996 people. "

So the USA is experiencing or about to experience every day the same result of 9/11. > 3000 deaths in a single day.

Be interesting to see how this pans out.
 
Oh you...



I actually find economics fascinating, so it's no big deal for me to do this at all.

Problem is, I find finance unbelievably boring. Bit of a jam I'm in, isn't it?
 
On a related note, yesterday's bloodbath everywhere except energy looks like it's going to repeat tonight (if premarket numbers are anything to go by) which may very well continue until we break the stimulus deadlock.

Markets are understandably jittery as no stimulus package will mean a repeat of march and to put money on faith in politicians is, well...


If this continues past tomorrow we'll be well past the point of taking the froth off the last month and well into "time to start worrying" territory.
 
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