Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[satanoperca]

Tough decisions indeed. But it's also the case that millions of $ are being spent to subsidise drugs to treat diseases that only a few people in this country will ever get. You can argue that's not an efficient way to spend money either.

It is not effective, you are correct.

 

[over9k]

Here's my posts from duc's other thread which I think are highly relevant here:

So let's compare ALL the megatech vs your BEST non-tech etf, XLY:

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Only in the past 3 months has the difference even so much as reduced, and the megatech is still head & shoulders above. Pool the megatech against a pool of your etf's and it looks even worse.

I didn't buy apple but I didn't buy google or microsoft either, so swings & roundabouts I guess. I'm holding amazon.

Megatech even outperforms the tech ETF (XLK) over both time horizons:

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It's not just tech driving the market, it's the megatech.

What we're better off doing is looking at what's changed over the past month as it's been about a month since stimulus ended and that's the only significant factor other than the virus:

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The only difference we see is that it's now facebook taking over 2nd place from amazon, which is still higher than even XLY anyway. In short, even without stimulus, megatech is still head & shoulders above the entire rest of the market.

Meanwhile, PEZ, the etf I mentioned I was buying ages ago that in your other thread you then derided/basically just said was ****, has done this:

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Finally, it's worth looking at what was going on before vs after stimulus end.

Before stimulus end, I had a portfolio of what I called stay-at-home tech (ZM & DOCU being just two of them) that was outperforming even apple:

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That was then sold off HARD as everyone took profits before earnings season & possible stimulus end and has just gone choppy AF since, whilst apple (and facebook) has gone to the moon:

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Stimulus is looking increasingly unlikely, but if we do get more of it, there's a very good chance we see a return to the stay-at-home tech madness vs the megatech madness we've seen without it and thus a rotation will be in order.

That massive chop in ZM & DOCU has occurred each time the stimulus has gotten delayed, then the market's anticipated it coming (remember when the politicians were banging on about trying to get a new package before the august recess?), then lost hope, then gained it again etc etc. Pretty hard to see the several corresponding rallies & then drops as a whole bunch of coincidences.

 

[Smurf1976]

The decline in the mega retail complexes, has been in decline overseas, for some time.

It has been a thing in the US for quite some years now so it was always going to happen here at some point.

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking at Satanoperca's figure of around 33 million dollars worth of economic damage per life saved

A related question is why is the economic damage so great?

Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?

Some services no but for goods of any kind it almost certainly will and for services it won't literally be zero. I have no proof but strongly suspect that deficiencies in the economic system itself are magnifying the cost of all this.

 

[Smurf1976]

"As an example of the narrowing market breadth

An observation from the purely mechanical system which I and two others are trading is that it is strongly preferencing both ends of the market at the moment. That is, it really doesn't like mid caps and just about everything it's bringing up is either large or small cap.

That's trading the ASX only nothing international.

 

[PZ99]

A related question is why is the economic damage so great?

Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?

No way. The damage is permanent imv. Future output won't make up the losses.

 

[over9k]

An observation from the purely mechanical system which I and two others are trading is that it is strongly preferencing both ends of the market at the moment. That is, it really doesn't like mid caps and just about everything it's bringing up is either large or small cap.

That's trading the ASX only nothing international.

I don't trade mechanically but that was my gut instinct as well - big players snuffing out almost everyone else due to being able to raise funds (corporate bonds or what have you) that the little guys can't, and a few little guys striking gold (sometimes quite literally).

With that being said, a hell of a lot of small players have been snuffed out and more are falling by the day. Oil, for example, is an utter bloodbath, and dozens of small companies are predicted to go yet:



Even the supermajors are taking it in the proverbial from the biggest player of them all: Aramco.

 

[over9k]

Lol.

This hit the news just seconds after I posted that:



Exxonmobil has just dropped out of the dow.


Move along, move along, nothing to see here...

 

[over9k]

A related question is why is the economic damage so great?

Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?

Some services no but for goods of any kind it almost certainly will and for services it won't literally be zero. I have no proof but strongly suspect that deficiencies in the economic system itself are magnifying the cost of all this.

No way. The damage is permanent imv. Future output won't make up the losses.

Correct.

This is not what happens:



Instead, best case is we get this:

 

[Sdajii]

A related question is why is the economic damage so great?

Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?

Some services no but for goods of any kind it almost certainly will and for services it won't literally be zero. I have no proof but strongly suspect that deficiencies in the economic system itself are magnifying the cost of all this.

Some will, some won't, some extra damage will be done, some extra gains will be made. However, it should be obvious that the devastation is extreme, however you look at it.

Goods... why would they get made up in a large way? Presumably what you're saying is something like 'I was locked up and unable to kayak, now that the lockdown is over, I'll go buy that kayak' (or cricket bat or fishing rod or whatever). The thing is, during lockdown they weren't using a kayak or cricket bat or fishing rod. There will be some catch up buying, but people don't buy stuff when they're not using it and they don't wear it out when they don't use it or own it. For the most part though, the issue is that people sitting around playing computer games and watching Netflix aren't making money and people without money don't buy stuff.

As for services, it may not quite be zero, but it won't be far off. You may be excited to go out to dinner again or to get a massage or whatever, but if these things have been closed for 6, 12, 18, 24, 120 months, people aren't going to go out and get double their normal amount for that same period of time, especially when they don't have any money to pay for it. That's the thing, the damage doesn't suddenly stop when lockdowns end and then we get catch up. When you've destroyed businesses, jobs, etc, you continue to have a sluggish economy because your previously employed and productive workers are now out of savings, out of work and their work ethic has been replaced with alcoholism and depression. I suspect that overall, the estimates of the damage are understated not magnified. Obviously if you own a brewery or tobacco farm or you have a government-subsidised depression clinic you'll be laughing all the way to the bank, but the overall picture is pretty nasty.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/co...d/news-story/30c7483a786950718e21a1997e235782

 

[wayneL]

I'm doing extraordinarily well atm, too much business, but I am expecting this economy to bite sooner or later.

While most of my clients are relatively unaffected, a sizeable chunk are going to find themselves in difficulty as soon as the government starts weaning them off.

I am also anticipating inflation to start having a negative effect at some point.

I know we have changed our spending habits substantially.

Any business that doesn't take cash doesn't get our business.

Any business that treats us like lepers doesn't get our business.

That in itself has cut out a fair few places where we used to spend money that we don't spend money anymore.... perhaps it's a function of the type of people we're friendly with but almost everyone else we know are the same.

 

[wayneL]

Also to the point that I think it may have been smurf made earlier, the world economy has been at the very precipice of going over a cliff anyway. All it needed was an excuse.

Am I predicting there are now only two possible scenarios

1/ high or possibly hyperinflation (and the Fed has signalled the intention to create higher inflation already.

2/ an economic reset. The inhuman reptiles at Davos have been talking about this for 2021 (maybe the NWO theorists were right?)

I am not looking forward to either scenario.

 

[SirRumpole]

A related question is why is the economic damage so great?

Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?

Some services no but for goods of any kind it almost certainly will and for services it won't literally be zero. I have no proof but strongly suspect that deficiencies in the economic system itself are magnifying the cost of all this.

Humans are adaptable.

We will find ways out of the economic abyss.

Things will change, but maybe not for the worse.

The lessons from the Great Depression are pretty clear. If governments react to lack of government income by cutting spending then that just makes things worse and stretches out the recession.

Value and support consumers, they are the ones that keep the economy running. Invest in productive infrastructure, power stations, efficient transport structures and anything that supports job creation.

It's really up to governments to stimulate imv, left alone I don't think that the private sector has the capacity to pull us out of the abyss.

 

[wayneL]

Humans are adaptable.

We will find ways out of the economic abyss.

Things will change, but maybe not for the worse.

The lessons from the Great Depression are pretty clear. If governments react to lack of government income by cutting spending then that just makes things worse and stretches out the recession.

Value and support consumers, they are the ones that keep the economy running. Invest in productive infrastructure, power stations, efficient transport structures and anything that supports job creation.

It's really up to governments to stimulate imv, left alone I don't think that the private sector has the capacity to pull us out of the abyss.

Unfortunately it very much depends on how the government goes about this stimulus and henceforth pays for it.

Even as we stand now there is a whole economic class of people that are being wiped out, broadly the private economy middle class.

Meanwhile state government's are hiring diversity and change managers at ridiculous rates of pay.

And who is the low hanging fruit as far as taxation goes? Yep that self same group of people. Then of course there is the hidden taxation of high inflation.

That will be an enormous drag on economic recovery as it punishes the very same people you mentioned, consumers.

 

[SirRumpole]

Unfortunately it very much depends on how the government goes about this stimulus and henceforth pays for it.

Even as we stand now there is a whole economic class of people that are being wiped out, broadly the private economy middle class.

Meanwhile state government's are hiring diversity and change managers at ridiculous rates of pay.

And who is the low hanging fruit as far as taxation goes? Yep that self same group of people. Then of course there is the hidden taxation of high inflation.

That will be an enormous drag on economic recovery as it punishes the very same people you mentioned, consumers.

Agree about stupid State hiring.

However, I think the low hanging fruit is resources but the current Federal government is too welded to its donors.

 

[wayneL]

Agree about stupid State hiring.

However, I think the low hanging fruit is resources but the current Federal government is too welded to its donors.

Yes, which does go to my point.

We live in a corporatocracy and corporates will not be harmed under any circumstances.

 

[over9k]

Let inflation run rampant and ease the burden of the debt.

 

[basilio]

A singularly unique US approach to effectively dealing with the COVID 19 crisis AND dramatically reducing national health costs.
I wouldn't be too critical of the idea. After all it has come from the worlds most stabled genius..

Trump suggests closing hospitals to reduce COVID deaths

All 7,000 hospitals across America would be closed under a bold new plan to end the coronavirus crisis, outlined by President Trump today.

Pointing to the irrefutable link between hospitals and COVID-related deaths, Mr Trump said it was time to acknowledge the elephant in the room.

“No one wants to talk about it, but the link is very, very clear,” the President said.

“Every day I hear about a new death and I ask my people – ‘Where are these deaths happening?’ – and they tell me it’s the Johns Hopkins hospital in Baltimore, or the St Joseph’s hospital in Tampa, or some hospital in Dallas. It’s always hospitals.

“But the Democrats don’t want to admit it. They don’t want to talk about it. They’d prefer to keep the hospitals open and keep seeing the deaths pile up”.

He said the number of hospitals in America was the reason for the high number of deaths. “We have more hospitals in America than anywhere else in the world. Many, many hospitals. So of course that’s why we’re getting these deaths. We close the hospitals, we stop the virus. Simple

 

[wayneL]

I hear Trump is only closing hospitals for Dems. Is this true @basilio ?