Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

qldfrog · 14 August 2020

Sdajii said:
Telling people they can no longer have their business, or job, or forcing people to be unable to travel, etc etc etc, is not exposing a weakness, it is creating destruction.

It's absurd that you would try to spin things to that extent.

While i favor dead wood cutting and the long needed shake @Smurf1976 i have to agree with @Sdajii that the current situation is more a fully artificial crisis with day to day change of the rules.in such case, no business but public services is left alive.
Jobkeeper will prop dying ones, jobseeker prevents the supply of workforce.
It is not an efficiency selection, more a cash reserve one so favouring big business, removing starting competition and giving more room for favoritism and corruption
Not exactly the good shake uo.
It could but is not here or in France for the places i follow, maybe in some parts of the US with less gov intervention but otherwise it is a field day for the big fishes: a long term economic nightmare imho.but would be very happy to be proven wrong

Smurf1976 · 14 August 2020

Sdajii said:
Telling people they can no longer have their business, or job, or forcing people to be unable to travel, etc etc etc, is not exposing a weakness, it is creating destruction.

You know exactly what I'm referring to.

If any business is depending on a single supplier on the other side of the world and has no inventory of whatever they need then they're a sitting duck for disruption. They gambled and lost.

If it wasn't a pandemic which brought it unstuck then it would have been something else in due course. Living hand to mouth is always risky and best avoided - hence someone invented the idea of a warehouse and of supply chain diversity and so on which unfortunately many have ignored in favour of taking the risk.

SirRumpole · 14 August 2020

Smurf1976 said:
If it wasn't a pandemic which brought it unstuck then it would have been something else in due course.

It was already happening in the stoush with China. Sure it was exacerbated by Morrison's remarks over covid, but China was already limiting their imports of our coal and iron ore and the barley barney would have come to a head sooner or later.

qldfrog · 14 August 2020

Smurf1976 said:
You know exactly what I'm referring to.

If any business is depending on a single supplier on the other side of the world and has no inventory of whatever they need then they're a sitting duck for disruption. They gambled and lost.

If it wasn't a pandemic which brought it unstuck then it would have been something else in due course. Living hand to mouth is always risky and best avoided - hence someone invented the idea of a warehouse and of supply chain diversity and so on which unfortunately many have ignored in favour of taking the risk.

most of the casualties are tourism, services and restaurants/coffee which will benefit big chain, and if general population wealth falls, no more avo on toasts, just KFCs,,, this will kill more than Covid on the long term.
unless anyone tested positive and dying is added to the covid victims list as seems the case reading between the lines :
about a 20y old victim in Victoria "headline: Coronavirus Victoria: Man in his 20s becomes youngest COVID-19 victim "..the basilio hated far wing news ltd LOL
Actual premier talk:
“We are talking about one person, we are talking about – we believe – the youngest person that has died of this virus, or at least with this virus,”
At least premier was kind of honest
How can we not fuel conspiracy theory with crap like that..All this will end up very badly and I see some very volatile environment in the coming months.The more this whole shebang is going on, the more pessimistic I am about the economic future of this country.The initial selfishness favoring older Australian is going to turn and it could become nasty the other way round, so gold and ammo?
Surprisingly: https://www.npr.org/2020/07/28/8961...bankruptcy-protection-for-2nd-time-since-2018

Smurf1976 · 14 August 2020

qldfrog said:
While i favor dead wood cutting and the long needed shake @Smurf1976 i have to agree with @Sdajii that the current situation is more a fully artificial crisis with day to day change of the rules.in such case, no business but public services is left alive.

I do agree that the situation is not going well in Victoria especially and that the approach is not in any way sustainable.

There's really only two options here unless someone comes up with a vaccine in the relatively near future - eliminate or let it go through the population.

The situation has exposed failings of government. Government as such, as distinct from any particular politician or public servant. Among other issues:

*The idea that a pandemic would be contained using completely artificial political boundaries is really quite bizarre. The only place where the use of state borders makes sense is Tasmania for obvious reasons. For the rest though, the use of state borders is really quite bizarre and adding unnecessarily to the cost.

Please don't anyone tell me something about police working for states and so on. If we can't come up with a solution to that then we deserve to suffer - it's a purely arbitrary construct which can easily be changed by legislation. Put the boundaries where they make sense.

*The idea that we'd have someone who isn't authorised to enforce the law given responsibility for enforcing the law is really not smart.

I've nothing against private security guards personally but if we're keeping people in a prison-like situation under quarantine then whoever's doing that needs both accountability and authority. Accountability to government with a career on the line. Authority to arrest if necessary. Private security guards have neither. Uniformed Police have both.

*We need to stop really dumb things being done.

The idea that some teenager wasn't allowed to practice driving on relatively quiet streets with their own mother or father with whom they live, none of them being known to be infected or exposed to the virus, meanwhile someone who's actually tested positive to COVID-19 is allowed to walk the exact same streets for exercise, is beyond belief.

Whoever came up with those needs to be replaced in their job. Simple as that it's beyond stupid.

Etc. I certainly won't deny that there are issues with the way this has been handled and that the situation isn't sustainable.

qldfrog · 14 August 2020

Smurf1976 said:
I do agree that the situation is not going well in Victoria especially and that the approach is not in any way sustainable.

There's really only two options here unless someone comes up with a vaccine in the relatively near future - eliminate or let it go through the population.

The situation has exposed failings of government. Government as such, as distinct from any particular politician or public servant. Among other issues:

*The idea that a pandemic would be contained using completely artificial political boundaries is really quite bizarre. The only place where the use of state borders makes sense is Tasmania for obvious reasons. For the rest though, the use of state borders is really quite bizarre and adding unnecessarily to the cost.

Please don't anyone tell me something about police working for states and so on. If we can't come up with a solution to that then we deserve to suffer - it's a purely arbitrary construct which can easily be changed by legislation. Put the boundaries where they make sense.

*The idea that we'd have someone who isn't authorised to enforce the law given responsibility for enforcing the law is really not smart.

I've nothing against private security guards personally but if we're keeping people in a prison-like situation under quarantine then whoever's doing that needs both accountability and authority. Accountability to government with a career on the line. Authority to arrest if necessary. Private security guards have neither. Uniformed Police have both.

*We need to stop really dumb things being done.

The idea that some teenager wasn't allowed to practice driving on relatively quiet streets with their own mother or father with whom they live, none of them being known to be infected or exposed to the virus, meanwhile someone who's actually tested positive to COVID-19 is allowed to walk the exact same streets for exercise, is beyond belief.

Whoever came up with those needs to be replaced in their job. Simple as that it's beyond stupid.

Etc. I certainly won't deny that there are issues with the way this has been handled and that the situation isn't sustainable.

The state barrier is a pet one for me especially for the gold coast south in nsw north in qld..seriously...
Whereas zones would make sense

Smurf1976 · 14 August 2020

qldfrog said:
.All this will end up very badly and I see some very volatile environment in the coming months

I can certainly see trouble being the end result in the eastern states.

WA, NT, SA, Tas have far less to worry about with the possible exception of SA and NT enforcing their eastern borders.

Opinion polls show that too - the state Premiers of WA, SA, Tas have very few disapproving of their actions and public support approaching the 90% level which is pretty much unheard of in politics.

In contrast there's far more division and disapproval in the eastern mainland states. Still majority support as such, but it's in the 60's % and there's far more who are unhappy.

Qld and WA I don't know much about but referring to other issues I'm aware enough of how governments work in the other states to say I'm not at all surprised to see that split. There's a definite cultural difference in approach there which manifests in all sorts of things.

Garpal Gumnut · 14 August 2020

Smurf1976 said:
I can certainly see trouble being the end result in the eastern states.

WA, NT, SA, Tas have far less to worry about with the possible exception of SA and NT enforcing their eastern borders.

Opinion polls show that too - the state Premiers of WA, SA, Tas have very few disapproving of their actions and public support approaching the 90% level which is pretty much unheard of in politics.

In contrast there's far more division and disapproval in the eastern mainland states. Still majority support as such, but it's in the 60's % and there's far more who are unhappy.

Qld and WA I don't know much about but referring to other issues I'm aware enough of how governments work in the other states to say I'm not at all surprised to see that split. There's a definite cultural difference in approach there which manifests in all sorts of things.

There is a Q. Election due in October, so it may give some guidance.

Although there are other issues at play in politics here.

gg

over9k · 14 August 2020

Travel related stocks have rallied massively this week. So has kogan.

I reckon victoria has turned the corner. Long way to go yet, but they're over the hill.

over9k · 14 August 2020

Also, apparently basically every caravan park etc everywhere has been booked out this public holiday weekend up here in QLD. That's just intra-state travel on a public holiday, so summer travel seasonality + pent up demand = lots of domestic tourism coming soon IMO.

qldfrog · 14 August 2020

over9k said:
Travel related stocks have rallied massively this week. So has kogan.

I reckon victoria has turned the corner. Long way to go yet, but they're over the hill.

Victory on what?That people start to realise the real, neither magnified nor dimished issue we have.?
Personally happy as i like figures and numbers before scare campaign or fake news but that's a bloody bad sign for whatever will come next? Curfew armor vehicles in the streets a la China?
https://amp-theaustralian-com-au.cd...r/news-story/f5e9ede7faca62182f4ebbdf1aee0e68
Economically catastrophic, gov need to release their fake vaccine quickly or this will blow up and they will find themselves naked especially here and in NZ

qldfrog · 14 August 2020

qldfrog said:
Victory on what?That people start to realise the real, neither magnified nor dimished issue we have.?
Personally happy as i like figures and numbers before scare campaign or fake news but that's a bloody bad sign for whatever will come next? Curfew armor vehicles in the streets a la China?
https://amp-theaustralian-com-au.cd...r/news-story/f5e9ede7faca62182f4ebbdf1aee0e68
Economically catastrophic, gov need to release their fake vaccine quickly or this will blow up and they will find themselves naked especially here and in NZ

I am actually getting bear asx wise due to our specific case,and us may not be enough to support our share market plus they have election coming..maybe a switch to Europe Asia in coming months

over9k · 14 August 2020

qldfrog said:
Victory on what?That people start to realise the real, neither magnified nor dimished issue we have.?
Personally happy as i like figures and numbers before scare campaign or fake news but that's a bloody bad sign for whatever will come next? Curfew armor vehicles in the streets a la China?
https://amp-theaustralian-com-au.cd...r/news-story/f5e9ede7faca62182f4ebbdf1aee0e68
Economically catastrophic, gov need to release their fake vaccine quickly or this will blow up and they will find themselves naked especially here and in NZ

We've been over this - it'll never happen. They'd have to admit all the lockdowns etc were pointless/all for nothing. This will NEVER happen.

IFocus · 14 August 2020

Smurf here in WA we are nearly all separatists from the rest of Australia with a chip on our shoulders wouldn't matter who was in power closing the boarder is always going to be a vote winner.

In fact as Bali is closer than the East Coast not going to Bali this year has been a bigger source of complain / conversation than closing the boarder to the East.

Sdajii · 15 August 2020

SirRumpole said:
It certainly is exposing a weakness, that of dependence on foreign supply lines for essential items like PPE and vaccines and other manufactured items.

The fact that we could get a substantial face mask manufacturing up and running so quickly shows that we have a capability in these areas but are too complacent to support this, preferring to rely on foreign suppliers.

Hopefully we have learned a lesson.

Forcing people to not open their business, that is, to say they must shut their doors, is not exposing a weakness linked to supply lines. It doesn't matter what your supply line is if you can't open your shop!

If travel is impossible or if the media scares people into not doing it, it does not expose a weakness in supply lines, it is destruction of an industry!

If the government says citizens can not work at a local abattoir to process locally-produced meat, and there is a meat shortage (this is the exact case right here right now), it is the creation of a problem, not an exposure of a preexisting weakness.

Do I really need to go on with examples? Do you honestly believe the insanity you are going along with?

You say you hope we've learned a lesson. It honestly seems that you need a lesson in critical thinking if you think locking down an economy is not the cause of economic problems and you would have some anomaly in your head which would cause you to attempt to push such a ridiculous spin story.

As New Zealand has shown us, this virus is so mild that if you believe it is not there, it does not hurt your economy! Yet once you find it, if you so choose, you can lock yourself down and wreck your economy! 102 days of believing it was gone, not trying to prevent it, and it wasn't doing anything. If you want to disbelieve that and think it somehow arrived on imported goods, you accept that it is so insanely contagious that there is no point trying to contain it anyway. However you look at it, the mainstream narrative you're advocating does not hold water. At some point we need to accept that mistakes were made (is it really difficult to believe that high level authorities made mistakes? Does anyone think that's unprecedented or surprising or something?) and move forward with sanity. That is when the economy can recover. Or, finding an excuse to save face (ineffective vaccine is the most likely way).

Smurf1976 · 15 August 2020

Sdajii said:
Forcing people to not open their business, that is, to say they must shut their doors, is not exposing a weakness linked to supply lines. It doesn't matter what your supply line is if you can't open your shop!

That is indeed true but there's plenty of supply chain weaknesses which have indeed been exposed affecting businesses which are open. Obviously not an issue if the business is shut but it is still an issue nonetheless.

Then there's those who initiated their own shutdown, not required by government, and who just happen to rely entirely on product from one manufacturer in China. It's not hard to come up with an explanation for why they decided to shut their shops.

Also things like not having even one person in the state or even country able to service a piece of equipment. That's a rather significant vulnerability since there's quite a few things which could stop a service tech traveling from wherever. I'm referring to electricians and mechanics here, not exactly uncommon as such but business does funny things at times.

qldfrog · 15 August 2020

Smurf1976 said:
That is indeed true but there's plenty of supply chain weaknesses which have indeed been exposed affecting businesses which are open. Obviously not an issue if the business is shut but it is still an issue nonetheless.

Then there's those who initiated their own shutdown, not required by government, and who just happen to rely entirely on product from one manufacturer in China. It's not hard to come up with an explanation for why they decided to shut their shops.

Also things like not having even one person in the state or even country able to service a piece of equipment. That's a rather significant vulnerability since there's quite a few things which could stop a service tech traveling from wherever. I'm referring to electricians and mechanics here, not exactly uncommon as such but business does funny things at times.

No denying but lockdown of the type we have are a back in middle age strategy business wise; do we need a repairer for each piece of equipment in each state, town, within 20km ??
Travel (and oil) is what allow us to have the unprecedented lifestyle we experience, even if you are self sufficient on your acreage as I am..(travel of people, goods or skills..)
This article is looking at lockdowns in a balanced way, and as I said earlier this view starts spreading at least among the non brainwashed people who actually make this country run based on quite a few linked-in posts lately
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...s-still-out-on-lockdowns-20200812-p55l2y.html
Now if this spread among the general population:
the gov and that is generic, not party preferred, will have to answer.
-> the backlash could prevent reasonable needed measure..
Look at the mask policies, some completely stupid here and overseas..wearing a mask walking on the beach is lunacy, in Woolies or at the movie a must have... but heavy government, red tape style can not see difference, state borders are seen as walls...
anyway, not sure how long we can carry on within our own bubble, good thing is:
summer is coming and sun will be back, spread will ease soon.Victoria could even send us some rain if they can ;-)

Sdajii · 15 August 2020

Smurf1976 said:
That is indeed true but there's plenty of supply chain weaknesses which have indeed been exposed affecting businesses which are open. Obviously not an issue if the business is shut but it is still an issue nonetheless.

You'll find examples of that, sure, but overwhelmingly, the shutdowns, which should be obvious from the fact that we're literally calling them shutdowns, are themselves directly harming the economy. This is the primary issue. The fact that we literally call them shutdowns should make this obvious.

Then there's those who initiated their own shutdown, not required by government, and who just happen to rely entirely on product from one manufacturer in China. It's not hard to come up with an explanation for why they decided to shut their shops.

In those specific examples, sure, it's a valid point. I entirely agree that we should not be relying on hostile foreign nations. I was saying this as a schoolboy in the 1990s and got suspended from school for talking about it. 20 years ago I was walking around in K-mart etc, absolutely bewildered that people were being so stupid. This is an important and related, but different issue. Using it as a scapegoat for a literal *shutdown* hurting the *economy* is disingenuous. Pointing out that it has a contribution to the economic issues is totally valid, but it's absurd to say it's the main cause, or even more insane, to try to justify further economic destruction.

basilio · 15 August 2020

qldfrog said:
Look at the mask policies, some completely stupid here and overseas..wearing a mask walking on the beach is lunacy, in Woolies or at the movie a must have... but heavy government, red tape style can not see difference, state borders are seen as walls...

General policies like "Wear a mask outdoors" are always blunt instruments.

There are in fact some get out clauses but the reality is in emergency situations governments have to have the capacity to ensure people take an emergency direction seriously.

From a policing POV it is always the case that 80-90% of people understand and follow laws. The trouble ill be be with the idiots, the wilfully disruptive, the self servers and self righteous Karens who demand their rights as sovereign citizens.

We should remember that the State Government was very quick to reverse penalties which failed the sensible interpretation rule specifically to be responsive to some genuine individual circumstances.

SirRumpole · 15 August 2020

Sdajii said:
You'll find examples of that, sure, but overwhelmingly, the shutdowns, which should be obvious from the fact that we're literally calling them shutdowns, are themselves directly harming the economy. This is the primary issue. The fact that we literally call them shutdowns should make this obvious.

And compensation is available for business and individuals concerned.

Yes, some will fall through the cracks, they always do, but the overall strategy is working.

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