Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Knobby22]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

As Trump stated The Swedish experiment has failed, they ended up with all the negative effects on GDP combined with a lot more deaths.
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/swedens-covid-experiment-is-now-a-certified-failure

 

[SirRumpole]

Googling "covid deaths Sweden" gives 5,447 deaths so far.

 

[qldfrog]

Not sure what you mean about my mindset and not be invested frog, I have tons of skin in the game

Should correct: wrong indeed: panicky mindset related to virus medical damage.

Yes you have leverage it and indeed are invested which i admire if you really believe the virus is that bad.
Basically you play well the scare to your credit
But i suspect thea masses will go back cash gold and banks BHP because we are in Oz.
And we need to take that into account, as you did for the tech flight
Meanwhile in the real world:France growth surprised by being higher than expected.economy restarting stronger than expected
Nothing to add.and virus widespread there

 

[qldfrog]

Should correct: wrong indeed: panicky mindset related to virus medical damage.

Yes you have leverage it and indeed are invested which i admire if you really believe the virus is that bad.
Basically you play well the scare to your credit
But i suspect thea masses will go back cash gold and banks BHP because we are in Oz.
And we need to take that into account, as you did for the tech flight
Meanwhile in the real world:France growth surprised by being higher than expected.economy restarting stronger than expected
Nothing to add.and virus widespread there

30000 deaths no need to google
When you have Sweden used as a model of what not to do, and France seen as enlightment in term of economic growth, shouldn't we cry.

 

[sptrawler]

Should correct: wrong indeed: panicky mindset related to virus medical damage.

Yes you have leverage it and indeed are invested which i admire if you really believe the virus is that bad.
Basically you play well the scare to your credit
But i suspect thea masses will go back cash gold and banks BHP because we are in Oz.
And we need to take that into account, as you did for the tech flight
Meanwhile in the real world:France growth surprised by being higher than expected.economy restarting stronger than expected
Nothing to add.and virus widespread there

As you say frog, we have to think about what will play out in the market, what the authorities do we have no control over, this is going to be a drop in real living standards not just a drop in the markets.
Real returns on investment are the lowest i have seen, yet there are still some things that are making money, it is up to us to work out which ones those are and to get onto them.

 

[qldfrog]

Not to give a lesson but
How to look at figures
One take death by coronavirus
Sweden if you like
Total number
Look at overall death total number
Then look at last year total number
Look at the trend..i just did for Sweden : mortality on the rise due to population aging
Out of last 3/4 years draw line and get expected mortality number for 2020
Compare to current number wait for end of year for full year
What were the added extra deaths
Anything else is bull****.
You will get final numbers by end of year. Better at the end of next year you will see the real impact
Now get the same in finland for this year and next and determine the "winner"
Pm me in december 21 and we restart that thread

 

[qldfrog]

Not to give a lesson but
How to look at figures
One take death by coronavirus
Sweden if you like
Total number
Look at overall death total number
Then look at last year total number
Look at the trend..i just did for Sweden : mortality on the rise due to population aging
Out of last 3/4 years draw line and get expected mortality number for 2020
Compare to current number wait for end of year for full year
What were the added extra deaths
Anything else is bull****.
You will get final numbers by end of year. Better at the end of next year you will see the real impact
Now get the same in finland for this year and next and determine the "winner"
Pm me in december 21 and we restart that thread

Now how to make money from the scared rabbits in the spotlight..invest in their new religion the VACCINE saving us all...
CSL...

 

[sptrawler]

In hindsight what have we seen up to now, as a result of the virus, with regard consumer spending? This has to have a knock on effect at a later I would think.
Most people carried out those nagging maintenance jobs they had been putting off, this caused a spike in Bunnings earnings, will it also result in a slump in Bunnings earnings now the jobs are done?
With the panic buying and stockpiling, there was also a rush on white goods, fridges freezers etc, which saw a spike in Hardly Normals and JB's sales, again now the fridge has been updated, big T.V has been bought, will there be a big fall in earnings. Especially when the handouts are throttled back.
All the people who have capitalised their home loan interest, will it be seen as earnings on the balance sheets of the banks, or a drag.
Which companies are going to receive favourable treatment, to increase their ability to supply the domestic market with essentials, that were hard to obtain during the pandemic.
Just a few of my thoughts, trying to get the thread back on track.

 

[tech/a]

Perspective gets lost.
Due to some form of control.

Un restrained around 7% of the population would die
before a vaccination is found that's around 490 million.

If you dont think that would impact life it self let alone
The Markets then your dreaming. Panic--you've seen
nothing yet!!

Everyone knows better---yet now one knows!

Carry on ---Covid 19 will!

 

[rederob]

Not sure what you mean about my mindset and not be invested frog, I have tons of skin in the game

@qldfrog continues to make claims that do not match reality.
Older Australian's are, on average, significantly more wealthy than younger Australians and therefore have "most skin in the game."
Large slabs of our economy rely on foot traffic, and that traffic disappears when it's not safe to go out. The multiplier effects of COV19 affected industries in terms of loss or reduced income and revenue, and loss of jobs, are profound.
However, States maintaining community confidence - the likes of WA, QLD, SA and Tassie - are now starting to hum along (excluding some sectors largely dependent on international travel/tourism). For the first time in around 3 months I had to drive around our local shopping centre car park to find a spot, and was queuing behind other waiting cars.
While I am not a fan of closing borders, given we have not adopted the successful approach of Wuhan in rounding up and relocating all positive COV19 cases in isolation centres, it's the next best step. And apart from McGowan's approach in WA, quarantining efforts have left a great deal to be desired. Even today within Victoria it's a shambles.
My personal view is that our greatest failing in "messaging" has been to ignore all international success in case reductions by wearing masks. Tony Fauci has a 2 point message: social distance and wear a mask. And keep doing it for months after all cases have disappeared. We have a 3-step message. Most people know the first 2 points but not the third, and none include wearing a mask. Our so called experts keep saying they are relying on the best scientific evidence for their recommendations, yet they keep sitting on the fence on masks, seemingly not wanting egg on their face for doing a backflip at our expense!

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Another way to look at it would be to ponder how much was wasted on the completely pointless Iraq war and the whole "terrorism" thing in general given that 11 September 2001 killed essentially nobody compared to what COVID-19 has already done in the US alone.

Or how much was spent on the GFC and why were businesses which received assistance not required to publicly acknowledge this support and repay it in full with commercial rates of interest? That alone would fund plenty of medical care and improve lives.

Etc. This whole argument looks awfully like another case of trying to socialise the costs in the interest of private profit. I'd take it far more seriously if business proposed a middle ground that got things going whilst sharing the cost.

I wouldn't say that fighting terrorism is pointless. There are real threats out there and it seems that most people take for granted the safety and security that they are provided in Australia.

Have a look at a place like Pakistan, where there is a serious terrorist attack just about everyday, to get an idea of the conditions that some people live under.

 

[sptrawler]

An article in the SMH, which seems to echo our thoughts on ASF.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/invest...ividend-pandemic-wipeout-20200702-p558gk.html

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

An article in the SMH, which seems to echo our thoughts on ASF.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/invest...ividend-pandemic-wipeout-20200702-p558gk.html

3 of the big 4 banks today announced an extension for customers to defer their mortgage and business loans for another 4 months after September. Our banks may be able to weather this global health crisis, however it is just a matter of time for a large bank in the USA, Europe or China to collapse, which may trigger another global financial crisis.

 

[No Trust]

Spot on...

@qldfrog continues to make claims that do not match reality.
Older Australian's are, on average, significantly more wealthy than younger Australians and therefore have "most skin in the game."
Large slabs of our economy rely on foot traffic, and that traffic disappears when it's not safe to go out. The multiplier effects of COV19 affected industries in terms of loss or reduced income and revenue, and loss of jobs, are profound.
However, States maintaining community confidence - the likes of WA, QLD, SA and Tassie - are now starting to hum along (excluding some sectors largely dependent on international travel/tourism). For the first time in around 3 months I had to drive around our local shopping centre car park to find a spot, and was queuing behind other waiting cars.
While I am not a fan of closing borders, given we have not adopted the successful approach of Wuhan in rounding up and relocating all positive COV19 cases in isolation centres, it's the next best step. And apart from McGowan's approach in WA, quarantining efforts have left a great deal to be desired. Even today within Victoria it's a shambles.
My personal view is that our greatest failing in "messaging" has been to ignore all international success in case reductions by wearing masks. Tony Fauci has a 2 point message: social distance and wear a mask. And keep doing it for months after all cases have disappeared. We have a 3-step message. Most people know the first 2 points but not the third, and none include wearing a mask. Our so called experts keep saying they are relying on the best scientific evidence for their recommendations, yet they keep sitting on the fence on masks, seemingly not wanting egg on their face for doing a backflip at our expense!

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Scomo is about to address the nation. Are we going to extend the JobKeeper initiative and the JobSeeker increases?

 

[wayneL]

@tech/a Where are you getting the 7% figure from?

 

[rederob]

@tech/a Where are you getting the 7% figure from?

The global death rate based on confirmed cases is around 4%.
Some countries are significantly worse, like Britain with around 15% while countries like Australia barely register at 0.01%. I don't think the "let 'er rip" chant would carry any truck with the Poms!

 

[sptrawler]

@rederob and @wayneL, Can't this go over to the 'general chat' virus thread, it is supposed to be about the economic implications.

 

[wayneL]

I would like to see the statistical washup as there are a number of reasons the figure may be inaccurate, level of testing etc, Vs demographic makeup and that sort of thing. As well as underlying factors.

the other thing is that I would like to see the number of other access deaths not related to covid but related to the lockdown of both the economy and the NHS system.

In other words how many people died of other diseases through lack of treatment while bored NHS staff made videos on tik tok.

My wife's aunt was one of those. Died a a couple of months ago because of lack of treatment for kidney disease.

I'm not discounting the seriousness of this disease but I think a deeper analysis than just a raw percentage figure is required.

 

[satanoperca]

The global death rate based on confirmed cases is around 4%.

Redrob, do you have any rough figures/studies of the amount of people who where asymptomatic and were never tested, maybe a ratio of those tested vs those not tested but may have shown positive if tested.

While the death rate globally sites at 4.7% of those tested, I wonder if this is even close to the real figure.

I suggest that possible 4:1 showed where asymptomatic vs confirmed.

This alters the stats by a very large margin if it is the case.