Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[jbocker]

So what's the point of having our cities organised on hub & spoke arrangements. All those transport lines, congestion. Why concentrate in large expensive locations; what about some decentralisation?

Exciting times.

Technology can allow us to move out of the office, but fundamentally we have always come together and formed hubs from day dot. I am not sure we can knock that out of our social need and psychology. It may take a couple of generations. We haven't learned the real issues of working from home yet. It might not be that healthy. It has been successful to this issue to a large degree and I think the flexibility is where the value is. Agree with that being exciting.
Manufacturing (what is left of it) will still need their zones, Too hard to replicate the machinery required, at home.

 

[jbocker]

Yeah, a lot of businesses are realising just how easy working from home has become. Same with employees.

I can see a lot of commercial real estate hitting the market soon - if it sits empty or yielding nothing then maybe we'll see calls for much of it to be rezoned residential or something.

Yes there has already been lots of translation of buildings to having mixed purposes. Ghost cities on the weekend and every night is ridiculous. I think the hours of work will change as well because commute times will be cut significantly. Allow people to shop for their needs over greater periods during the day. If working from home takes a greater hold, I see cafes, lunch bars and bars taking on conference settings for staff to get together periodically to take the place of having a dedicated office.

 

[qldfrog]

FWIW, I have been working from home intensively for the past 10y or so;
once the physical issues are removed:

a few unPC truths: working for home is not for everyone, some people have no self control and productivity goes down to zero, it is not easy, and you need to like your work, no pretend
working for home with preschool kids running around and babies is pure BS: productivity is abysmal, it is hard enough to stay awake with small babies at home, no way can you be productive when they are awake, mummy/daddy I am bored every 5 minutes...
As for working when they sleep, you are too tired to even think straight..
of a couple, one will have to sacrifice at any given time, or still pay childcare
water cooler discussion is important: so even if on different teams project company, it is good to share a working environment a la WeWorks..It can be a cafe, a library...for me... or shared office
That is my experience of WFH.
Lastly, do not kid yourself, unless you are better cheaper than that philippo indian guy/lady, you will be pushed away if you can be mostly remoted

 

[qldfrog]

last point is probably what will kill us even more in the west...

 

[sptrawler]

last point is probably what will kill us even more in the west...

My son in law runs a small business, all the office work is done in India, so you are spot on it is happening. Remote doesn't have to mean in suburbia, it could be anywhere.

 

[jbocker]

My son in law runs a small business, all the office work is done in India, so you are spot on it is happening. Remote doesn't have to mean in suburbia, it could be anywhere.

I know one VERY BIG company who is pulling that capability out of India. It IS coming home.

 

[over9k]

Yeah people forget that foreign labour is usually cheap for a reason. Paying the extra few bucks for superior work can often be worth it.

 

[sptrawler]

I know one VERY BIG company who is pulling that capability out of India. It IS coming home.

That is great, I think that this virus and the associated logistical problems have shone a light on business model problems and I mean every business from the tradesman right through to commercial property leasing.

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah people forget that foreign labour is usually cheap for a reason. Paying the extra few bucks for superior work can often be worth it.

I don't think anyone begrudges paying more, for superior work, over time I think only one side of the equation has increased.

 

[over9k]

The talking heads on bloomberg actually had someone decent on for a change - Andrew Cogan, CEO of Knoll, is launching a complete "work from home" line/package soon as they have sales data on this kind of stuff and the long & the short of it is that a lot of companies have no intention to ever return to previous levels, and whatever levels they do return to will not be for a long time yet.

His market research has told them (unsurprisingly) that work from home is not created equal as some people already had decent desktop pc's, a study or separate room to work from etc etc whereas many didn't and whilst they want to come back to work, a lot of companies are not intending for people to actually come back to the office, ergo those people with crappy home setups are basically going to be required/forced to work from home now and will thus be setting things up properly (buying decent home office stuff) now that they realise that they're in this for the long haul.

None of which should be any surprise to anyone whatsoever.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Virus cases in these states are clearly picking up pace:

 

[over9k]

Yep and it spooked the markets this morning, after a 1-1.5% bounce on open due to good employment data, virus data was released at about half an hour in and everything except stay-at-home tech has just nosedived since.

 

[qldfrog]

California can not possibly see case increasing, it is anti Trump, liberal minded and Democrat managed.
Figures must be wrong

Obviously tongue in cheek..
How the hell are they going to blame this on Trump..to be followed..

 

[Dona Ferentes]

the economic implications of the Pandemic..... (cont.)

We've talked about the impact that working from home has made, and now some return to work is being considered/ done. Property people are getting a feel for what's happening. Some is wishful thinking, but workplaces will be different, as will employee engagement

“What we are finding is that as people bring people back to the office now, fewer people can be in the environment, so it’s much harder to restrict your space and your real estate when you need more space for fewer people. We aren’t seeing a dramatic trend in real estate in [regards to] size and lease reductions”

Andi Owen, CEO, Herman Miller Inc [multinational office furniture manufacturer]

“We have all seen articles suggesting the office is dead, and we will all work from home. Those types of articles were being written 20 years ago, and they were wrong then and they are wrong now. They show up every time there is a new technology like laptops and then high-speed Internet and Wi-Fi and now low-cost videoconferencing platforms. The predictions are always wrong because it's not about the technology, it's about the people”

Jim Keane, CEO, Steelcase Inc [world’s largest office furniture manufacturer]

“Almost every company on the planet is and will have to re-imagine their business. And I believe in the next two years, there is going to be more change than in the last 10. Quite simply, different work needs to get done and work needs to get done differently and to get work done differently, companies will need to rethink their org structure, roles and responsibilities”

Gary Burnison, CEO, Korn Ferry Inc [global management consultancy company]

but one sector where impact will be long and tortuous

"I will go on the record to say that travel will never, ever go back to the way it was pre-COVID. It just won’t. People will, one day, get back on planes. But one of the things that I do think is a fairly permanent shift is...a redistribution of where travelers go. I think a lot of people are going to realise they don’t need to get on an airplane to have a meeting”

Brian Chesky, CEO, Airbnb Inc

and if the pointy end of the plane can't be filled with high yielding passengers, it will be more expensive down the back!!

 

[IFocus]

Asked long term colleagues how it was going working from home.

1. They all said they got more done less BS interruptions
2. All started earlier finished later because of no commute time.
3. Meetings cleaned up and on point usually 60% less time than usual.
4. A lot walked or exercised at some point during the day.

A big negative for those who had wife's not working, more food / coffee = putting on weight

BTW none had technology problems.

 

[wayneL]

Asked long term colleagues how it was going working from home.

1. They all said they got more done less BS interruptions
2. All started earlier finished later because of no commute time.
3. Meetings cleaned up and on point usually 60% less time than usual.
4. A lot walked or exercised at some point during the day.

A big negative for those who had wife's not working, more food / coffee = putting on weight

BTW none had technology problems.

That concurs exactly with what I'm hearing.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

daughter (rhymes with laughter) tells me they're instructed to keep working from home, not to go to office unless they have to.
Son in academia; still doing the office reno but Uni has no money, so no desk; stay away as long as internet is ticketty-boo
And neighbour sent home yesterday; essentially marched off the premises at noon (am in a hotspot suburb)

at least they have jobs

 

[Smurf1976]

Asked long term colleagues how it was going working from home.

The only argument I can see for the modern style of open plan office over either WFH or an old style office setup with rooms and doors, is that the modern approach enables workplace politics far more effectively.

It has appeal to middle managers or those wanting to become middle managers but it doesn't do much for either employees or the business since it tends to kill productivity.

Obviously that applies only to offices, it's very different in workshops, factories, trucks and so on.

 

[over9k]

So apparently office rents in new york are down 25% and outright purchase costs are down 40%. I'm honestly surprised it's not worse.

 

[qldfrog]

Was watching a french tv short report yesterday and they mentioned the fact that you can have had covid and fought it back hands off be unaffected and in my understanding be immunised without even be detectable.if proven, this has massive repercussions both medical and economic as the infection rate might be overly underreported which would mean much lower casualty rate and make this virus more benign for the general population.
With obvious economic consequences if the information is released which is not a given.
As with climate change and other trending matters, we are seeing actions/ responses way out of wack with what figure based analysis would demand.obviously the why pops up and what many would see as fringe conspiracy theories rise.
I do not read any conspiracy theories material unless you class Wayne posts as such .... but am starting to build an image of a great reset ,for other lack of other word,being orchestrated.
Actually a great idea and concept if i was in power.
So how can we benefit out of this, as we can hardly fight it against the mass propaganda and clear unwillingness of people to think independently