Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Kremmen]

This chinavirus is the most overrated thing we've seen since the Y2K bug.

The massive amount of extra work that millions of people did to update systems to cope with Y2K is what prevented it being a global disaster. The period from mid 1998 until late 2000 was easily the busiest and most lucrative for IT workers in the past 30 years. (Late 2000 because lots of minor things still did have to be fixed during 2000 and because other projects which had been put on hold then received attention.) ... So probably not the comparison you intended.

 

[Smurf1976]

The massive amount of extra work that millions of people did to update systems to cope with Y2K is what prevented it being a global disaster.

Much the same with COVID-19 and indeed everything from aviation safety to medicine.

It's because precautions are taken that not much bad stuff happens. Remove the precautions and then the bad things do happen.

 

[SirRumpole]

Is it all about to start again because of a few idiots ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...tter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

 

[sptrawler]

Is it all about to start again because of a few idiots ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...tter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

Might be time to stock up on toilet paper.

Obviously the protesters think 'black lives matter', is more important than Australian elderly lives.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Might be time to stock up on toilet paper.

Obviously the protesters think 'black lives matter', is more important than Australian elderly lives.

and other people's livelihoods clearly don't matter much.

 

[sptrawler]

and other people's livelihoods clearly don't matter much.

Also there was a great deal of effort to keep indigenous groups safe, well that was obviously a pointless excercise, they were well represented in the march.

 

[Sdajii]

Much the same with COVID-19 and indeed everything from aviation safety to medicine.

It's because precautions are taken that not much bad stuff happens. Remove the precautions and then the bad things do happen.

In some cases this is true, in others it's not. Aviation safety does make a fair bit of sense because flying big metal tubes full of humans around is inherently extremely dangerous. Medicine in the west is a case of things going too far. Sure, it's lovely to have over the top safety standards, but this makes it prohibitively expensive for many people, which means those people suffer and/or die. There's a sweet spot for safety standards between having none, making it too dangerous, and having too much, making it too expensive.

In the case of the chinavirus, we have gone absurdly too far. Appropriate would have been to carry on more or less with business as usual but with reasonable social distancing, personal hygiene promotion and common sense approach to high risk things (like crowds etc, sure, cancel large public gatherings etc). The extreme restrictions will kill and harm for more people than the virus would have if we had done literally nothing at all to mitigate it. It's actually entirely possible that we won't have even significantly mitigated it, just delayed it. A vaccine is unlikely, and if we don't get one, we'll have community transmission anyway since these lockdowns/restrictions are not indefinitely sustainable. As long as we do have them, we are causing huge increases to depression, suicide and massive economic distress, etc etc.

 

[Sdajii]

Is it all about to start again because of a few idiots ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...tter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130

Again? When did it happen the first time? We've seen all of 102 deaths in Australia, total! *EVERY DAY* in Australia many hundreds of people die, whether it's cancer, AIDS, slipping over in the shower, being murdered, killing themselves, being eaten by a shark or dying in a house fire. The median age of those people killed in Australia so far was over 80 years. The average life expectancy in Australia is 82.3 years! I mean, if this "all happens again", gee, time to kill your neighbours and loot their toilet paper supply. I'm in my 40s and not a single person in Australia as young as me has died from Chinavirus.

And you may say "Oh, but Australia is doing really well! What about those countries with the biggest death rates, like Spain and Italy!"

Well, those countries have average age of Chinavirus death victims spot on their respective countries' average life expectancies! I've looked up the figures myself, checking the official COVID-19 figures and cross referencing with their own countries' governments' official life expectancy figures.

 

[wayneL]

Stop challenging the narrative, @Sdajii

We need to keep ramping up the fear and keep stoking unreasonable, irrational responses to this!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Again? When did it happen the first time? We've seen all of 102 deaths in Australia, total! *EVERY DAY* in Australia many hundreds of people die, whether it's cancer, AIDS, slipping over in the shower, being murdered, killing themselves, being eaten by a shark or dying in a house fire. The median age of those people killed in Australia so far was over 80 years. The average life expectancy in Australia is 82.3 years! I mean, if this "all happens again", gee, time to kill your neighbours and loot their toilet paper supply. I'm in my 40s and not a single person in Australia as young as me has died from Chinavirus.

And you may say "Oh, but Australia is doing really well! What about those countries with the biggest death rates, like Spain and Italy!"

Well, those countries have average age of Chinavirus death victims spot on their respective countries' average life expectancies! I've looked up the figures myself, checking the official COVID-19 figures and cross referencing with their own countries' governments' official life expectancy figures.

Thanks @Sdajii . I am told by those in the know that Australia escaped a bullet by the closure of borders, it's wider geographic separation of the population and having a well functioning Public Health system. The latter is in part due to the many nasty bugs such as Q Fever, Dengue and Grey Nomads in Caravans which assail us continually throughout the year. Thus we were in a sweet spot to have only just over 100 deaths.

As the show ain't over until the fat lady sings and Covid-19 is still playing the violin, it ain't over yet.

Most deaths were in the 60+, particularly the 80+ age groups, this may not be the case in the future, so even from a utilitarian point of view, never mind ethical it is worth fighting to our last Grey Nomad.

I will get someone more interested in a gong to check your interpretation of the figures.

gg

 

[Sdajii]

Thanks @Sdajii . I am told by those in the know that Australia escaped a bullet by the closure of borders, it's wider geographic separation of the population and having a well functioning Public Health system. The latter is in part due to the many nasty bugs such as Q Fever, Dengue and Grey Nomads in Caravans which assail us continually throughout the year. Thus we were in a sweet spot to have only just over 100 deaths.

As the show ain't over until the fat lady sings and Covid-19 is still playing the violin, it ain't over yet.

Most deaths were in the 60+, particularly the 80+ age groups, this may not be the case in the future, so even from a utilitarian point of view, never mind ethical it is worth fighting to our last Grey Nomad.

I will get someone more interested in a gong to check your interpretation of the figures.

gg

Haha, your post gave me a laugh, as yours often do! I've so far managed to ward off the scourge of the dreaded grey nomads. Actually, the last I had to do with some was a lovely experience when I was hitchhiking in NT and a couple from Netherlands gave me a ride. Not much later I grew a few grey hairs myself, so maybe I haven't been as fortunate as I first thought!

Why would the average age of fatalities drop? This disease doesn't seem to affect younger people significantly. For the most part it just knocks people off if they were already close to death, either due to age or another medical issue. Mutation is only likely to make the disease milder, and assuming we don't come up with an effective vaccine (which is overwhelmingly most likely, since we've been trying for longer than I've been alive to create vaccines for conoraviruses and have never succeeded, despite in some cases trying very hard, such as for the closely related SARS virus, which the focus of a very large amount of research, with no vaccine possible), I don't see any reason to think it will become more aggressive. Both through mutation and through medical developments, death will become decreasingly likely, meaning the average age of death should increase not decrease, unless it ends up killing very few old people and only knocking over a tiny number of people who were just about dead anyway, or if we keep counting people as COVID-19 deaths if they die in car accidents etc. Even old mate George Floyd was infected with the Chinavirus, and if his case had not been given so much publicity he likely would have been written up as a COVID-19 fatality.

Ignoring the critically ill, the average age of death should have two significant forces pushing it up, and none pushing it down.

Since I didn't really give much interpretation in my previous post it would be hard to get your interested associates to check it, but by all means do get the figures themselves checked. For the most part it's very easy; Professor Google will readily supply you with the official figures of average age of COVID-19 deaths by country, and even more readily give you life expectancies for any countries you desire.

 

[Country Lad]

Thanks @Sdajii .........and Grey Nomads in Caravans which assail us continually throughout the year.......

That reminds me, I must drive my motorhome up and down your street, not leave room for you to drive past or even accidentally park across your driveway while we sit outside in our camping chairs drinking wine and reminiscing about all the places we have seen in Australia over the past 14 years which you and most other Australians don't even know exist.

 

[SirRumpole]

Stop challenging the narrative, @Sdajii

We need to keep ramping up the fear and keep stoking unreasonable, irrational responses to this!

Are you calling the country's medical officers irrational and unreasonable ?

 

[wayneL]

Are you calling the country's medical officers irrational and unreasonable ?

To be fair, I think their recommendations were according to information and *modelling* available every time, but has a noted Economist remarked recently, epidemiology models are as bad as predicting outcomes as economic models

With the benefit of hindsight I think we can say that the world has overreacted, this being the opinion of many experts in the field, rather than my own. Certainly in a cost vs benefit analysis, both in terms of economics, and lost lives and health outcomes overall, we have screwed up hugely.

I do think that the "irrational and unreasonable" narrative can most certainly be leveled at the mainstream media.... Or perhaps it is just intentional?

 

[SirRumpole]

To be fair, I think their recommendations were according to information and *modelling* available every time, but has a noted Economist remarked recently, epidemiology models are as bad as predicting outcomes as economic models

Who was that economist may I ask ?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Haha, your post gave me a laugh, as yours often do! I've so far managed to ward off the scourge of the dreaded grey nomads. Actually, the last I had to do with some was a lovely experience when I was hitchhiking in NT and a couple from Netherlands gave me a ride. Not much later I grew a few grey hairs myself, so maybe I haven't been as fortunate as I first thought!

Why would the average age of fatalities drop? This disease doesn't seem to affect younger people significantly. For the most part it just knocks people off if they were already close to death, either due to age or another medical issue. Mutation is only likely to make the disease milder, and assuming we don't come up with an effective vaccine (which is overwhelmingly most likely, since we've been trying for longer than I've been alive to create vaccines for conoraviruses and have never succeeded, despite in some cases trying very hard, such as for the closely related SARS virus, which the focus of a very large amount of research, with no vaccine possible), I don't see any reason to think it will become more aggressive. Both through mutation and through medical developments, death will become decreasingly likely, meaning the average age of death should increase not decrease, unless it ends up killing very few old people and only knocking over a tiny number of people who were just about dead anyway, or if we keep counting people as COVID-19 deaths if they die in car accidents etc. Even old mate George Floyd was infected with the Chinavirus, and if his case had not been given so much publicity he likely would have been written up as a COVID-19 fatality.

Ignoring the critically ill, the average age of death should have two significant forces pushing it up, and none pushing it down.

Since I didn't really give much interpretation in my previous post it would be hard to get your interested associates to check it, but by all means do get the figures themselves checked. For the most part it's very easy; Professor Google will readily supply you with the official figures of average age of COVID-19 deaths by country, and even more readily give you life expectancies for any countries you desire.

Unfortunately @Sdajii you are falling in to the bias known as "who outside there?". I just made that one up but we will stick with it as it's good. You are only looking at humans, us, even that most miserable of ribbon of traffic along a rural highway, Grey Nomads in convoy.

You need to look at the virus. At the organism. A tiny protein. A sliver of RNA.

It is called Novel Coronavirus as it is new. Very new. Nobody has ever seen it since Adam and Eve munched on an apple and got down and dirty. The doctors know bugger all about it. The sicker the people the more virus it spews out, and on to the next human. It causes different immune responses in different people. It causes other things such as clots and brain changes ( look at Boris Johnson even more imbecilic since he had it ). Many people who have had it even severely do not get a good antibody response which means, I am told, they may get it again next year or the year after when those antibodies fade away as I am told they do with coronaviruses. This is why we get colds year in year out.

This is not your regular virus. A vaccine is far, far away my learned friends tell me. The effective vaccine exists atm in the minds of the bulls on Wall St. and The Tangerine Clown in the White House.

It may find it's way back in to a wet market and an animal. It is already in every lab between here and Wuhan going the long way around via Atlanta, except in NZ. Don't get me started on NZ. Thus this virus imo is not finished with us and for that reason I see a number of major faults with economic projections "once it is over" which I will list as follows. I don't use google, just dot points.

• The pandemic is not over. Where there are no cases e.g. Africa there has been no testing.
• Governments lie. Russia has very few deaths from an enormous number of cases.
• Before you know it we will be heading back in to winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
• Because it is live in labs it may be changed, will break out again, not intentionally.
• It may combine in an animal in a wet market and then we have Covid-20 or Covid-21.
• 20 and 21 may have different characteristics, may be more aggressive in people with herpes e.g.
• This will ensure that Grey Nomads won't get it as all they do is reminisce.
• Younger people may get 20 and 21.

I will get my Epidemiologist friend to examine your googling, but I'm of a mind it is out. Not very far out but then in a Chaotic System one needs only to be a teensy bit out to lose one's shirt being a bull.

gg

 

[wayneL]

Who was that economist may I ask ?

I knew you would ask that, LMAO. I've listened to about a million podcasts in the last couple of weeks and I can't quite remember who it was. It might have been Professor Keen, but I will have to verify that. I'll see if I can find the exact quote.

 

[SirRumpole]

I knew you would ask that, LMAO. I've listened to about a million podcasts in the last couple of weeks and I can't quite remember who it was. It might have been Professor Keen, but I will have to verify that. I'll see if I can find the exact quote.

We will have epidemiologists making expert statements on economics soon.

 

[macca]

Are you calling the country's medical officers irrational and unreasonable ?

Medical officers are expected to list the worst case scenario and the powers that be then decide where to draw the line.

A bit like when we get any medicine and the endless list of side effects means that no one can take it safely. I find it quite interesting when the people that make this stuff state boldly "all medication has side effects"

A bit like choose which illness you prefer before taking this

I still find it puzzling why the West ignore the experienced medical officers of Asian countries, less deaths than the West, no shutdowns, no economic catastrophe.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Medical officers are expected to list the worst case scenario and the powers that be then decide where to draw the line.

A bit like when we get any medicine and the endless list of side effects means that no one can take it safely. I find it quite interesting when the people that make this stuff state boldly "all medication has side effects"

A bit like choose which illness you prefer before taking this

I still find it puzzling why the West ignore the experienced medical officers of Asian countries, less deaths than the West, no shutdowns, no economic catastrophe.

It is one of the problems with Western democracy.

Everyone, once off the teat is an expert, and decides what to do with their own interest and those of others as they see it.

If everyone just did as they were told in a pandemic it would help. As you say though, the doctors are only there to advise.

Asian countries have a tradition of "doing as they are told". Sometimes it works out well, sometimes, not.

gg