DYL - Deep Yellow

nizar · 3 January 2007

toc_bat said:
nizar

ive proboly aske dthis before, but whats R/R?

that was a good piece of analysis you did on this yesterday, keep up the good work,

thx

Thanks but yeh i just happened to get it right with this one this time, many others i get wrong.

R/R = return/risk.

Everytime you are wrong ie. you get stopped out, you lose R, which is the risk taken per trade, which should be a % of initial starting capital no more than 2% (or some say max 3%).

Theres two ways to be profitable as a trader:
(1) win more often than you lose ie. win%>50
(2) each time you win, you win, on average, greater than your average loss ie. R/R>1

A combination of the two is preferred.

A few examples.
If R/R=3, then even win% of even as low as 35% is profitable.
But if R/R is only 1, then you need to have win%>60

Not many traders have win%>50 so (2) must be maximised.

Hope this helps.

toc_bat · 3 January 2007

nizar

so for your latest DYL trade you have:

R/R=4.5 so Im happy with that.

so your calc must be somethig like 10%return / 2% risk, right?

see ya

britishcarfreak · 3 January 2007

Yep - picked up a few packets at 55 and 57 - calculated risk based on gains from yesterday that I closed out. Looking for a return to 60c by 3.30pm. I'd like to see an after lunch push but this is looking heavily overbought already.

Daily chart shows a good turn in progress but how hard it turns is anyone's guess.

See below for 1min interval chart of today's action.

dj_420 · 3 January 2007

ill put my two cents in for what its worth.

IMO the market has seen a lot of hot money and a lot of uranium explorers have huge unjustifiable market caps.

the market cap of DYL is almost half a billion, that size market cap is comparable to SMM. SMM is on its way to prove up an estimated 150 million pounds of u plus, has many deposits and many many drill targets.

also in which case, MTN who has market cap of around 100 million looks very cheap considering it already has identified a 30 000 tonnes resource, when compared to DYL.

i am simply agreeing with many people who believe that the market has seen some unjustified increases. IMO there are three companies who will ever see production pending a policy change and they are SMM, AGS and MTN.

PhoenixXx · 3 January 2007

No news, nothing.
This share just went crazy...booming up real quick

Snakey · 3 January 2007

imo the buns are cooked ....if you leave them in the oven to long they will get burnt and the whole process will be a waste of time.....take profits and be happy.
no arvo run for this one imo

nizar · 3 January 2007

dj_420 said:
ill put my two cents in for what its worth.

IMO the market has seen a lot of hot money and a lot of uranium explorers have huge unjustifiable market caps.

the market cap of DYL is almost half a billion, that size market cap is comparable to SMM. SMM is on its way to prove up an estimated 150 million pounds of u plus, has many deposits and many many drill targets.

also in which case, MTN who has market cap of around 100 million looks very cheap considering it already has identified a 30 000 tonnes resource, when compared to DYL.

i am simply agreeing with many people who believe that the market has seen some unjustified increases. IMO there are three companies who will ever see production pending a policy change and they are SMM, AGS and MTN.

DJ
Doesnt matter if the increase is justified or unjustified.
Either way we make money.

Toc_bat
Umm yet something like that.
Let me give an example.
If my initial capital is 100k.
Risk is 1%.
So R=$1,000.
R/R=4.5 means gross profit on this trade was $4,500.

toc_bat · 3 January 2007

thanks nizar,

well its bed time for me now,

its 2am in london and im as sick as a dog, ive got the worlds worst flu, dont know why im here, its really depressing, so far the whole place reminds me of queenbeyan, sorry to any one that lives there, but when i lived in canberra the queenbeyaners themselves called it struggle town,

well most people in london struggle, the weather is crap, the place is overflowing with rubbish, the houses have long ago died from terminal cases of rising damp and seem to be made from soft cheese, cant beleive i came here,

and everything here is unjustifiably overpriced rather like DYL, a $10 bottle of aussie wine is more like $20 here, and thats at a cheap pakistanis 24hr corner shop, well the best part about the placer is that im gonna leave one day, just like my shares which are gonna leave planet earth and will blast off into space.

ok bye DYLers - i hope you all make crazy wads of cash, just remember to throw your local beggar a few gold coins if you do.

ps DJ :

i am simply agreeing with many people who believe that the market has seen some unjustified increases. IMO there are three companies who will ever see production pending a policy change and they are SMM, AGS and MTN.

is that ever? or never???

johnno261 · 3 January 2007

Well how are we all going. Fantastic news out today re Mt.Isa Tenements which from people I know within the industry are very excited about these Uranium bearing tenements. Dr. Leon will take this company to the next level and the market is aware of this. Once Howards Uranium policy is given the go ahead in March, this will then override state policy's and Beattie indicated in a QLD meeting that he will have to just go with the flow. Sure the coal industry creates volumes of income, but watch the huge cashflow Uranium will create.

LifeisShort · 3 January 2007

johnno261 said:
Well how are we all going. Fantastic news out today re Mt.Isa Tenements which from people I know within the industry are very excited about these Uranium bearing tenements. Dr. Leon will take this company to the next level and the market is aware of this. Once Howards Uranium policy is given the go ahead in March, this will then override state policy's and Beattie indicated in a QLD meeting that he will have to just go with the flow. Sure the coal industry creates volumes of income, but watch the huge cashflow Uranium will create.

Thats some nice spruiking Johno

I think your comments should've gone something like this...

GOOD news out today re Mt.Isa Tenements which from people I know (like who?) within the industry are HAPPY about these POSSIBLE Uranium bearing tenements. Dr. Leon will take this company to the next level (what level is that?) and the market is aware of this (its speculators riding the uranium boom, every uranium stock is racing at the moment plus PDN having a stake in DYL). IF Howards Uranium policy is given the go ahead in March, this will then override (no it won't, its still up to state to decide mining policies) state policy's and Beattie indicated in a QLD meeting that he will have to just go with the flow. Sure the coal industry creates volumes of income, but watch the huge (I'm not sure about huge.....it will struggle to match Coal for income) cashflow Uranium will create.

I think your comments would've definitely got peoples hearts racing. Well done

johnno261 · 3 January 2007

LifeisShort said:
Thats some nice spruiking Johno

I think your comments should've gone something like this...

GOOD news out today re Mt.Isa Tenements which from people I know (like who?) within the industry are HAPPY about these POSSIBLE Uranium bearing tenements. Dr. Leon will take this company to the next level (what level is that?) and the market is aware of this (its speculators riding the uranium boom, every uranium stock is racing at the moment plus PDN having a stake in DYL). IF Howards Uranium policy is given the go ahead in March, this will then override (no it won't, its still up to state to decide mining policies) state policy's and Beattie indicated in a QLD meeting that he will have to just go with the flow. Sure the coal industry creates volumes of income, but watch the huge (I'm not sure about huge.....it will struggle to match Coal for income) cashflow Uranium will create.

I think your comments would've definitely got peoples hearts racing. Well done

Call it spruiking but its all factual. Do your research Life is Short. Federal Uranium Policies will override state Policies. Howard has stated this himself.
Peoples hearts are racing because Dr. Leon Pretorius is a switched on man that knows how to take company's to the next level as he did with PDN.
As for the Income between coal and Uranium, I would suggest you go back and do some research on both materials values..Way off the ball is Life Is Short!!!

Sean K · 3 January 2007

dj_420 said:
the market cap of DYL is almost half a billion, that size market cap is comparable to SMM. SMM is on its way to prove up an estimated 150 million pounds of u plus, has many deposits and many many drill targets.

also in which case, MTN who has market cap of around 100 million looks very cheap considering it already has identified a 30 000 tonnes resource, when compared to DYL.

i am simply agreeing with many people who believe that the market has seen some unjustified increases. IMO there are three companies who will ever see production pending a policy change and they are SMM, AGS and MTN.

I have:

DYL's market cap at about $350m at the moment, with historical drill results for 39m lbs in Namibia (to be explored and drilled), some very good drill results (many between 500-1000ppm) for a JORC at Napperby, and some 'prelim' results at Western Gawler for follow up.

SMM market cap about $670m, with 57m lbs JORC at Valhalla in the IUJV and 6 more JORCs to be provdied shortly with some excellent results ann. Possibly another 30-40m lbs perhaps.

MTN market cap about $92m, with inferred JORC 68m lbs at 300ppm cut off and 45m lbs 500ppm cut off with possible increase.

AGS market cap $500m with some grades between 800 and 2100ppm with Quasar JORC on the high grade part to be prov very shortly. Hard to tell how big it will be.

On that basis, perhaps MTN looks a little undervalued to me, pending what else the other companys finally get. Perhaps AGS through Heathgate/Quasar will be the first to mine due to Beverley 4 Mile being only 8km from the currently operating Beverly Mine.

(holding MTN, AGS and SMM)

hitmanlam · 3 January 2007

Lets see how the professionals close this stock out. A closing price of 57c or above is a strong close for me and would indicate a bullish day for tommorrow.

Sean K · 3 January 2007

johnno261 said:
Call it spruiking but its all factual. Do your research Life is Short. Federal Uranium Policies will override state Policies. Howard has stated this himself.
Peoples hearts are racing because Dr. Leon Pretorius is a switched on man that knows how to take company's to the next level as he did with PDN.
As for the Income between coal and Uranium, I would suggest you go back and do some research on both materials values..Way off the ball is Life Is Short!!!

Johnno and LIS, let's stop any further personal criticism and just present the facts.

For both of you, I haven't seen any proof or analysis about the true value of the uranium v coal industry, so lets not make any grand statement without backing it up. Thanks.

johnno261 · 3 January 2007

hitmanlam said:
Lets see how the professionals close this stock out. A closing price of 57c or above is a strong close for me and would indicate a bullish day for tommorrow.

Here here

Sean K · 3 January 2007

So, if it closes below $0.57 it will not be bullish and it will not 'explode' in the morning?

Let's keep it real guys.

johnno261 · 3 January 2007

kennas said:
So, if it closes below $0.57 it will not be bullish and it will not 'explode' in the morning?

Let's keep it real guys.

Hope the moderators of the site are taking notice of constant harrassment from Kennas!!

nizar · 3 January 2007

kennas said:
So, if it closes below $0.57 it will not be bullish and it will not 'explode' in the morning?

Let's keep it real guys.

Kennas, just chill a bit.
They are entitled to their opinion.

In my opinion, if a stock closes in the bottom of its trading range then probabilities say theres 70-80% of a gap down.
Or if it closes in the top of its trading range, then 70-80% chance of a gap up.

Today the open which was 50.5c, which was the low, and never really threatened intraday. High of 61c. And very strong buying above 55c. Before that resistance (55c) was broken shortly before the trading halt, there was about only about 10million shares traded. When it broke, the volumes started pouring in. So 40 out of the 50million was above 55c.

Towards the close, the buyers didnt chase, but at the same time, there were no major dumps.

So normally i would say it would go either way for the open 2mrw, but in this case, because today was the first big volume up day in this new uptrend after breaking 40-42c resistance yesterday, i think it has a very good chance of gapping up 2mrw.

So then why did i sell? Coz i got work 2mrw.

Good luck to all those still holding.

Sean K · 3 January 2007

nizar said:
Kennas, just chill a bit.
They are entitled to their opinion.

In my opinion, if a stock closes in the bottom of its trading range then probabilities say theres 70-80% of a gap down.
Or if it closes in the top of its trading range, then 70-80% chance of a gap up.

Today the open which was 50.5c, which was the low, and never really threatened intraday. High of 61c. And very strong buying above 55c. Before that resistance (55c) was broken shortly before the trading halt, there was about only about 10million shares traded. When it broke, the volumes started pouring in. So 40 out of the 50million was above 55c.

Towards the close, the buyers didnt chase, but at the same time, there were no major dumps.

So normally i would say it would go either way for the open 2mrw, but in this case, because today was the first big volume up day in this new uptrend after breaking 40-42c resistance yesterday, i think it has a very good chance of gapping up 2mrw.

So then why did i sell? Coz i got work 2mrw.

Good luck to all those still holding.

I agree Nizar, looks like it should be a strong open by the way it closed today. All the best to holders.

Phoenix · 3 January 2007

From my opinion the sell of after the halt shows that maybe tommorow won't be such a good day. It might go up but not like today. Anyone still holding beware of a retracement (keep a stop loss to lock in profits).

DYL - Deep Yellow

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