Dump it Here

willoneau said:

So you found out how to trade your way which suits you, did it take you long to find that out?

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Forever. It's gone through multiple iterations. Main limits were an inability to code well, and an inability to get the data I needed. You won't have those same limits in a trend following system, particularly if you follow Skate's lead.

Gringotts Bank said:

If you can handle a big number of losses in a row and not lose your cool, then your vibe is probably pretty good. So we're saying the same thing, only I would say it's better to develop the system first.

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Yes , but how do you know what system to develop if you don't know what suits you.

willoneau said:

Yes , but how do you know what system to develop if you don't know what suits you.

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MR is more suited if you need a high WR, smooth equity curve, low drawdowns and are ok with daily involvement. TF is more suited if you are ok with a low WR, drawdowns and prefer less involvement.

I would prefer low or zero involvement (full automation), but that is impossible given my coding ability. There's always difficutlies, no matter which way you go.

I agree you need a system but i believe in learning risk and money management enables you to last long enough to find that. Paper trading is fine if you already control your emotions, but only live trading will determine if that is true or not.

Lets put it another way, lets say you have your system and i have my risk and money management down pat. Then we trade live, suddenly emotion is involved. I think i know who would last longer before they learnt how to control it.

The penny dropped for me about three years ago, I pick it up and keep on dropping it.

We all have our own journey to take and the path we take can become hard at times. We can change paths if we like but the easiest path is nearly always down.

willoneau said:

Lets put it another way, lets say you have your system and i have my risk and money management down pat. Then we trade live, suddenly emotion is involved. I think i know who would last longer before they learnt how to control it.

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That's a false dichotomy because risk and money management are part of a system.

Gringotts Bank said:

That's a false dilemma because risk and money management are part of a system.

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so are you stating the chicken and egg scenario?

Gringotts Bank said:

That's a false dichotomy because risk and money management are part of a system.

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That is true for some but a lot have systems with practically no risk or money management, are their systems good or not? most never find out because they blow up.

Well it has been a great time for the trend following mob this year, a bit of a purple patch you could say, Hypothetically, at least.
Different style to Skate, but along similar lines, being weekly, except the model in this demonstration, buys highest ranked stocks on specific lookback periods. That is, stocks showing the largest gains over the given period, give or take a few volatility mods. Typically some stocks will be in blue sky and others in a pullback mode when bought.
The order of backtest lookback periods shown below are 20 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day, 200 day and 250 day. 20 x 5% positions, trades taken 1st day of each week. Of course these results from 1/1/19 to current has been cherry picked, so while it is real, it's not very realistic and results during other normal conditions are more err...modest


It all seems to good to be true and that is always the way in hindsight.

So what could happen if this run keeps rockin for another year and blows off, history shows an incredible run during 1998-2001, followed by the bend at the end.

Of course the chances of this happening again in this day and age are 0%
FWIW results include historical constituents. Most of the big movers over the parabolic run up are now delisted, if any one was curious.

The CAM strategy Repository found here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1022296/

Skate's modified CAM Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st January 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open if action is required.


2. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


3. CAM Strategy ‘Open’ position


4. CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions


5. CAM Strategy Dashboard



6. The CAM Strategy first weekly ‘Buy’ Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.


Skate.

The MAP strategy Repository found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1025758/

Skate's MAP Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st May 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open.


2. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


3. MAP Strategy ‘Open’ position


4. MAP Strategy ‘Closed’ positions


5. MAP Strategy Dashboard



Skate.

Strategies under evaluation
The CAM, MAP & BOX strategies are all weekly trend following systems that I have under evaluation.

1. The CAM Strategy - summary
The CAM strategy buys pullbacks in existing trends and buys countertrends when the rally continues.
(a) The CAM Strategy - Trading Plan (Enter LONG)
Buy before the open on Monday in the pre-auction at the open if today (Friday) is a GOLD-coloured bar [which represents the CAM-PB, meaning that both the 10-period (ADX) and (MACD) are declining] but the 14-period (CCI) is above zero, OR if today (Friday) is a BLUE-coloured bar [which represents the CAM-CT, meaning the 10-period (ADX) is declining but (MACD) is rising] and today’s close crosses above the 13-period EMA.
(b) The CAM Strategy - Trading Plan (Exit LONG)
Sell before the open on Monday in the pre-auction if Fridays end of close is a RED-coloured bar [which corresponds to the CAM-DN, that is, the 10-period (ADX) is rising but the (MACD) declines] and today’s (Friday) close is below the 13-period EMA.


2. The MAP Strategy - summary
The MAP strategy relies on two independent Buy signals. The first Buy signal is generated when the closing price is above a moving average period & the second Buy signal is generated when there is a 10% increase in the closing price compared to the previous week close. Sell when the Rate of Change filter is below 0% - OR - when the closing price is below a trailing stop.
(a) The MAP Strategy - Trading Plan (Enter LONG)
Buy whenever the Closing price is higher than a selected Moving Average conditional on the ROC filter being above 0% - OR - Buy when the Closing price is at least 10% higher than the previous week close with Volume higher than the Moving Average period.
(b) The MAP Strategy - Trading Plan (Exit LONG)
Sell when the momentum stalls using a momentum indicator - OR - when a trailing stop is hit.
Footnote: The MAP strategy in (Report II) has a trading start date the 1st MAY 2019 whereas the trading results above (Report III) for the MAP strategy is from the 1st January 2019 so there is a direct correlation & comparison between the 3 strategies.

3. The Box Strategy - summary
The Box Strategy is a trend continuation strategy. After three consecutive weekly pullbacks in a confirmed trend – Buy when the closing price breaks above the previous high conditional the ROC filter is above 0%. Sells when the Rate of Change filter drops below zero - OR - when the closing price is below a trailing stop.
(a) The BOX Strategy - Trading Plan (Enter LONG)
After three consecutive weekly pullbacks in a confirmed trend – Buy when the closing price breaks above the previous high conditional the ROC filter is above 0%.
(b) The BOX Strategy - Trading Plan (Exit LONG)
Sell when the Rate Of Change filter & the closing price is below a moving average confirming the momentum has ceased - OR - Sell when a variable trailing stop is hit.

Skate.

Wow, CAM had a very good week gaining over 5%. A new entry, ISX, earned 50% of this weeks profit.

Skate, are you at all concerned about fully revealing your system online?
From what I gather you have fully disclosed the Cam strategy

kid hustlr said:

Skate, are you at all concerned about fully revealing your system online?
From what I gather you have fully disclosed the Cam strategy

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Hi @kid hustlr thank you for your question, & yes I have disclosed the CAM strategies for all that have requested it.

Frank & Honest
If you were look back at my previous posts I've been frank & honest, being right up front disclosing & explaining the development of my main trading system, the (HYBRID strategy). If any of my posts make a positive difference I'll be the happiest poster on the forum. We are all family here at the ('Dump it here') thread helping others hopefully to trade successfully. I have a simple strategy/method when it comes to trading, I'm not a fancy traders & to be honest I'm in it for the money. (so far so good)

Change of invest direction
I have three strategies under evaluation & I have a few spare bucks hanging around so I'm after another few profitable strategies to trade. I'm disclosing not only the CAM strategy but the other two strategies as well explaining how each of the strategy get their signals, I also explain under what conditions I exit the trade. I make sure all the signals are posted well in advance before they are taken in the pre-auction on Monday morning, alleviating any confusion.

Why be open?
Revealing a system online may help others, my primary concern is for members to have the experience to learn. We have so many quality posters, (you included) here on the ASF & sharing information can be a light bulb moment for someone or catalysis for change for others.

Skate.

Skate said:

Why be open?
Revealing a system online may help others, my primary concern is for members to have the experience to learn. We have so many quality posters, (you included) here on the ASF & sharing information can be a light bulb moment for someone or catalysis for change for others.

Skate.

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The fact that you would disclose your system screams 'abundance mindset'. When Elon Musk disclosed all his patents for anyone to use, that was coming from an abundance mindset. On the surface it seems to go against the company's best interest, but the opposite is true. It's a mindset which is completely free of concern about competitors.

My contention is that someone with a scarcity mindset would not be able to trade this same system to the same degree of profitability. This would imply that the mindset is the primary determinant of success.

The CAM strategy Repository found here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1022296/

Skate's modified CAM Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st January 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open if action is required.


2. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


3. CAM Strategy ‘Open’ position


4. CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions


5. CAM Strategy Dashboard



6. The CAM Strategy first weekly ‘Buy’ Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.


Skate.

The MAP strategy Repository found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1025758/

Skate's MAP Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st May 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open if action is required.


2. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


3. MAP Strategy ‘Open’ position


4. MAP Strategy ‘Closed’ positions


5. MAP Strategy Dashboard


Comment
I normally refrain from making comments about any of my strategies under evaluation but this is the first week that the 'MAP' strategy has hit the front, its taken 3 weeks.

Skate.