Dump it Here

Skate said:

It's worth noting that Amibroker Backtest can't be overridden to compensate for missed (not purchased) positions.

Click to expand...

That's not correct.

Use a buystop as part of your entry condition, adjust your trade delays and set the buystop entry condition to false if the low of the entry day gaps up greater than the previous close plus 3%.

Skate said:

No, never.

Click to expand...

Skate, I would never say never. Maybe if system gurus had independent audits providing actual traded results.

@captain black, I just realised I forgot to wish you a Merry Xmas. Trading is motoring along just nicely at the moment. The Covid-19 crash made Mrs Skate feel ill wiping out a large chunk of money, now that's an experience I wouldn't like to repeat.

Trading Equity curve update
The combined Equity curve is from 1st July 2019 to today. Trading is back on track. I was lucky to have had a sizable amount of open profits that allowed me to keep pulling the trigger.



All the best for the New Year !!

Skate.

Skate.

Skate.

Skate.

captain black said:

That's not correct.

Use a buystop as part of your entry condition, adjust your trade delays and set the buystop entry condition to false if the low of the entry day gaps up greater than the previous close plus 3%.

Click to expand...

Not that it matters a lot but the way i was doing it was similar, adding a voluntary look forward to check that tomorrow open was below my allowed pc gap.
But then it was adding potentially extra buy whereas in real world, i was just missing a buy.
I personally think backtest means a lot, and you need to ensure any difference between backtest and real is explained.can be errors, shot up above buy limits, etc.
As long as you understand any difference, then go ahead.if not.stop..and this is what i did with one system 2 months ago.
will go into forensic investigation once i get some time.once again thanks Skate for the emulation.i also understand your reluctance cf openning a black box service.things can go wrong and you do not want to feel responsible.i myself (sorry for the poor form) do NOT want to give such advices to either family or friends as they will forget their 100 to 150 gain ,to only remember their 150 to 110 loss.
human nature

Sir Burr said:

Skate, I would never say never. Maybe if system gurus had independent audits providing actual traded results.

Click to expand...

HappyCat Equity Chart Correction
@Sir Burr is correct - This is why it's so important to have independent audits of quoted results. The Equity Chart for the HappyCat Strategy had the wrong date for today - being a short week the week ended today (31st December 2020) & not tomorrow which is obviously the 1st January 2021. I ran out of time to correct the mistake so I'm making a corrected re-post.

Corrected Chart


Apologies for the error.

Skate.

qldfrog said:

Not that it matters a lot but the way i was doing it was similar, adding a voluntary look forward to check that tomorrow open was below my allowed pc gap.

Click to expand...

There's no need to use forward looking code.

Skate's been corrected on this issue several times and still makes the same incorrect statement. It's important that beginners are given factual information.

captain black said:

There's no need to use forward looking code.

Skate's been corrected on this issue several times and still makes the same incorrect statement. It's important that beginners are given factual information.

Click to expand...

Thanks @captain black , i just reread your way,will try to add it.
May i ask: does this handle the missed buy properly and your buystop trigger does not add an extra buy (if any available)?
i mean the above during backtest..

Skate said:

In regards to missing a signal, you-win-some, you-lose-some, it's just the nature of how we elect to trade. But missing a trade still hurts to some degree. Selling a profitable trade is harder to swallow than missing a signal when the position recovers on the same day of its exit. See below (OMH) was exited yesterday only to rebound.

Click to expand...

OMH (O.M. Holdings)
I'm sure I'm not cut out to trade a Daily Strategy. Out of (OMH) one day & back in the very next bar.


The Panda Strategy (Todays Exploration Signals)







Skate.

qldfrog said:

Not that it matters a lot but the way i was doing it was similar, adding a voluntary look forward to check that tomorrow open was below my allowed pc gap.
But then it was adding potentially extra buy whereas in real world, i was just missing a buy.
I personally think backtest means a lot, and you need to ensure any difference between backtest and real is explained.can be errors, shot up above buy limits, etc.
As long as you understand any difference, then go ahead.if not.stop..and this is what i did with one system 2 months ago.
will go into forensic investigation once i get some time.once again thanks Skate for the emulation.i also understand your reluctance cf openning a black box service.things can go wrong and you do not want to feel responsible.i myself (sorry for the poor form) do NOT want to give such advices to either family or friends as they will forget their 100 to 150 gain ,to only remember their 150 to 110 loss.
human nature

Click to expand...

I have some family (the ones who know about my trading) suggest I manage theres. I'm reluctant. I'm ok with losing my own money, but I wouldn't feel good losing my families. If my account blows up, thats on me. I'd feel stupid. I'd feel too guilty if it was a families account.

A friend of mine knows about my CFD crypto trading too, who also wants me to trade and do it for him. Told him I would give him my EA, help him setup MT4, but I definitely wasn't going to provide a service to him. Same problem as above: losing my money is one thing, losing someone else's is very different.

Anyone use this for market timing?

Bazzi said:

@Skate, We are admirers of your trading systems you established and tweaked. Would you consider having it similar to "thechartist" making it available to subscribers to have it auto trade (Like IB API) to remove our emotion factor in trading?

Thanks, Bazzi

Click to expand...

Actually I've been meaning to ask a question in a similar vein. Skate would you ever consider becoming a trading educator. You're already doing it in an informal way through the forum and I gather that its something you enjoy doing.

You certainly have the background for it, amongst other skills, I recall reading that your career included train the trainer and course development.

Your approach, your knowledge of amibroker, your system delevelopment skills and experience would provide a wealth of value for the beginner and seasoned trader alike. I'd be the first to sign up.

Rsthree said:

Skate would you ever consider becoming a trading educator

Click to expand...

@Rsthree there is already a flood of educators with much more experience than me.

The "Dump it here" thread is a collection of posts that have been helpful to me in my trading
I vividly remember back in 2013 only one forum member was willing to help while others wanted to belittle "someone new". I had trouble understanding the basics of trading from a business sense.

Let me quote a few passages from a good educational book
Let's start with mature traders, those who’ve been around the block or two. Over time your views will change, soon realising that the secret to trading successfully is "staying in the game" & not necessarily making a lot of money quickly but compounding it over time. Beginners tend to gyrate from one idea to another based on what they think is going on in the market or what they have read.

Markets
Markets are highly efficient, but not perfectly so. Having a Trend Following system with a trading strategy exploits the inefficiencies over time. Trading has a natural ebb & flow that affects everyone emotionally when they persist in one way or the other, most traders want calm & servility but this is the wrong mindset to have, as traders we need chaos & volatility.

Trading is easy, making money trading is the difficult part
Trading consistently & successfully is even harder, which is why the majority of people who try to make money from trading fail. Slow, steady & methodical trading will win the race as there is never, ever, overnight success. Every strategy & every trader will have periods of good performance & periods of poor performance, yet beginners tend to worry about the short term ups & downs of their account.

Patience
For a strategy to work, you need to be patient as it can take months for a strategy to develop into profits. That's just the nature of the beast. It's very difficult for anyone (not just me) to say if a strategy is a good one or not for "you" since it all depends on the kind of trader you are & what's your maximum "pain" level when things start to go not as expected.

I'm not an expert by any means
A successful profitable trader, yes.

My views are not always correct but that's not the point of this thread
The point is for others to have their say & expand on a post by adding their slant or point of view - that's how we learn & help others. I can honestly say, I've tried my best.

Skate.

"Over time your views will change, soon realising that the secret to trading successfully is "staying in the game" & not necessarily making a lot of money quickly but compounding it over time."
Skate, this may be the most important sentence any trader can read - well said. Unfortunately, it is the reason that 90% of traders fail - they spend too much time searching for the holy grail instead of finding something that suits their personality and getting into the grind. So even though I feel this way the majority of traders searching for an ''edge'' will just gloss over this and never know the significance of it before giving up.
I just did a quick search of Australian share funds on the Netwealth platform over 3 years performance and the top one out of lots was about 16% p.a. I think there only a few that actually beat the benchmark incl divs. and most were pathetic. My point being, don't get too worried if you can't match a backtest showing 30,40 or 50% per year. If you can regularly beat 15% you are a star in the financial services industry. You can then build on that.

investtrader said:

Anyone use this for market timing?
View attachment 117498

Click to expand...

Personally use #XAO13WHL.au as feel its a bit more responsive for trading small and micro cap end of town.

Yes, that does look good. Have to play around adding as a filter.

Its tricky to get something that reliably fits your risk profile, but have found Skate's defensive approach of a variable stop that tightens on the filter generally gives better RAR/MDD performance than tying to block buys when your filter activates. Strong stocks that meet buy condtions still rarely pop up during market downturns and can be expensive to miss if you're blocking all buys. Similarly, tighter defensive trailing stops in market downturns should contain DD but often won't kill the rare stocks that keep trending strongly.

As I get more grey hair, worry more about DD and being defensive in trading and on the road than pure CAR and minimising time to destination. Heck, that's arguably been the biggest lesson from rotten 2020 and the CoronaCrash

Ante said:

@Skate how about you trade the happy cat strategy that you have been paper trading a few weeks ago, the dull cat not the shiny cat as it freaks me out as well. It’s only a suggestion as I’ll be happy to follow anything you decide to trade

Click to expand...

peter2 said:

IMHO the Action Strategy was performing nicely.

Click to expand...

qldfrog said:

But i think it is a good time to end that Action strategy, and move to a different experience.
By many aspects, action was a smooth ride, very good return, not many heart attacks on the way

Click to expand...

Along with the Action Strategy, the HappyCat & the Panda Strategy have run their course
1. The Action Strategy was developed from the posts of @ducati916 & it was a simple exercise if one could follow a mechanical system blindly. It takes mental strength to trade this way.
2. After the Action Strategy came to an end I was looking for a new project for the thread. The HappyCat Strategy was being "paper traded" at the time & it was suggested to trade it live. It was an exercise to post real results to stimulate interest if the strategy would turn out to be successful or crash & burn (watching it unfold in real-time). The Portfolio sizing was restricted to what I believed most members viewed as the "norm" when paper trading or backtesting a new strategy. ($100k X 20) positions.
3. The Panda Strategy, well I've given it a go. (35days or 8 weeks to be precise). It was an exercise to discover if a good weekly strategy would be able to trade successfully on a daily basis. It's doing okay, but not to the level of its bigger brother trading the weekly periodicity. I'm biased, I prefer to trade weekly as it's the equivalent of boxing in slow motion.

Skate said:

Getting started
Don’t let fear or self-doubt keep you from getting started. The very act of getting started is much more important than getting it right.

Click to expand...

The Zebra Strategy
I started this exercise (with permission) for a few reasons. I've lost focus that this thread is to help those just starting out, wanting to trade but don't know where to start. Most have money lying idle & sometimes a "nudge" is all it takes to put that money to work. It's challenging to trade a small portfolio as the commission costs are a drag on the performance of any strategy. Trading the Zebra Strategy will be a challenge but it's a foot in the door for Mrs Skate & might be for others. This week will be the week the strategy will be full.

Future posting of the Zebra Strategy
Some might have missed the boat, others might want to see the strategy unfold further to gain the confidence to take a plunge, so I'll post differently from the start this week. I'll display the weekly signals rather than the positions that are purchased or sold. The format change is so new members to the thread can pick up anywhere along the way & not limited to a closed system. Posting weekly signals is not a "signal service" but for educational value by following along with the entry & exit positions. This idea is in the same vein as @peter2 - displaying securities of interest.

Skate.