Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

duc's Swing Trades

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So no trades over the past few days as the big down day was my travel day to Christchurch and by the time I arrived the market was already toast and pretty much closed and my conference was already starting.

Then the market started to come back. Then the week ended.

So XLE, XLB, no issues they just rocked along. They are the hot sectors currently. HYG is ok.

LPX. If I had been at my desk, on the break, I would have sold it. I wasn't. I still hold it:

Screen Shot 2021-05-16 at 7.20.54 AM.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-16 at 7.21.15 AM.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-16 at 7.21.48 AM.png


That is the situation.

While SPTN:

I really like the look of (monthly). I will move this stock into my weekly portfolio. Now prior to this, I didn't have a weekly portfolio. I do now and this is my first position. If you read @Skate and @peter2, one has a weekly system, the other is building a weekly portfolio because catching the huge trends is just so profitable. Looking at the chart below, you'd probably expect trouble at the $35 mark. But if it breaks out, it could just run and run. I like the industry also.



Screen Shot 2021-05-16 at 7.23.58 AM.png



So LPX I will simply hedge through offsetting PUTS against the position. I'll trade my way to a profit in the position, irrespective of what the stock actually does.

Now that I'm home, I'll run a scan and assess any possible candidates for Monday.


jog on
duc
 
So a couple of ETFs sitting on my watch list:

ESPO @Skate for bringing this one to my attention; and
XLC, also getting close to an entry point.

A couple of individual names, both trucking:

SNDR
ARCB

Camper vans

CWH

jog on
duc
 
Sold;

PZZA @ $93.44 (loss)
SPTN @ $20.08 (profit) lost a lot of open profit.
XLE @ $51.93 (profit)
XLB @ $85.95 (profit)

Short Sells:

MDY @ $484.7
SLY @ $94.47

jog on
duc
 
So looking at the sectors today:

Tech. had a bounce.
Screen Shot 2021-05-20 at 9.24.32 AM.png


Breaking that down:

Screen Shot 2021-05-20 at 9.24.48 AM.png


Breaking down:

Screen Shot 2021-05-20 at 9.25.14 AM.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-20 at 9.25.30 AM.png


Some interesting charts in here.

MAXN shows some possibilities. Could probably get a pretty good entry long. The leaders are already making an initial entry a little late. Alternatively, buy the whole lot in TAN.

jog on
duc
 
Flippe-floppe:

Sell to close:

SLY @ $95.08
MDY @ $488.68
S&P500 @ 4009.78

Buy Long

JETS @ $26.02
XBI @ $127.42

Open tomorrow assuming market trading higher:

IHF @ market
PJP @ market
SLV @ market

Watching

$TNF for a LONG. or SHORT the 10yr Cash.

jog on
duc
 
So a flurry of new trades.

Sell to close:

JETS @ $26.12 (win)
XBI @ $127.99 (win)

Although both were wins, it was actually more of a case of not letting them (potentially) move to a loss. The wins were peanuts.

Buy to open long.

GOOG @ $2,349.60
IHF @ $270.83
PJP @ $80.38

This month (so far) has seen excessive trading, largely due to the fractured trends: ie. there have been no trends lasting much more than a day or two. The first BTD morphed into a second bout of weakness, which we haven't seen for a little while, which splintered the market trend. This has necessitated flippe-floppes from net long to net short back to net long with periods of market neutral thrown in.

The issue is: we become conditioned to chop in/out of trades. Better to grab a small profit than a loss. Wrong way to trade. If and it is a pretty big if atm, the overall market can re-establish some structure of a trend, then we will be able to sit in a longer lasting trend in either individual names or sectors. For the moment I'm in Health, but 2 sub-sectors of that sector: drugs and health care providers. Real Estate as a broad sector and GOOG a sector all on its own.

I have no idea whether the crypto collapse hurts stocks. It probably hasn't helped them. Today cryptos are having another spaz. day, but stocks while opening strong faded badly mid-morning. I think they hold and trade with some strength into the close.

This is how we stand currently:

Screen Shot 2021-05-22 at 6.46.48 AM.png


It would be far better to have that 20EMA acting as support rather than resistance.

Screen Shot 2021-05-22 at 6.48.17 AM.png


Screen Shot 2021-05-22 at 6.49.44 AM.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-22 at 6.50.12 AM.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-22 at 6.50.42 AM.png


Amazing that I am in them long enough to actually post their charts. Enjoy, they might be gone before the close! This was never supposed to be a day-trading thread.


jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
So a flurry of new trades.

Sell to close:

JETS @ $26.12 (win)
XBI @ $127.99 (win)

Although both were wins, it was actually more of a case of not letting them (potentially) move to a loss. The wins were peanuts.

Buy to open long.

GOOG @ $2,349.60
IHF @ $270.83
PJP @ $80.38

This month (so far) has seen excessive trading, largely due to the fractured trends: ie. there have been no trends lasting much more than a day or two. The first BTD morphed into a second bout of weakness, which we haven't seen for a little while, which splintered the market trend. This has necessitated flippe-floppes from net long to net short back to net long with periods of market neutral thrown in.

The issue is: we become conditioned to chop in/out of trades. Better to grab a small profit than a loss. Wrong way to trade. If and it is a pretty big if atm, the overall market can re-establish some structure of a trend, then we will be able to sit in a longer lasting trend in either individual names or sectors. For the moment I'm in Health, but 2 sub-sectors of that sector: drugs and health care providers. Real Estate as a broad sector and GOOG a sector all on its own.

I have no idea whether the crypto collapse hurts stocks. It probably hasn't helped them. Today cryptos are having another spaz. day, but stocks while opening strong faded badly mid-morning. I think they hold and trade with some strength into the close.

This is how we stand currently:

View attachment 124665

It would be far better to have that 20EMA acting as support rather than resistance.

View attachment 124666

View attachment 124667View attachment 124668View attachment 124669

Amazing that I am in them long enough to actually post their charts. Enjoy, they might be gone before the close! This was never supposed to be a day-trading thread.


jog on
duc
Click to expand...
Is Mr flip flop contagious ? Or just response to a market?
;-)
 
qldfrog said:
Is Mr flip flop contagious ? Or just response to a market?
;-)
Click to expand...

At the moment it would appear so. I 'think' the worst is now behind us, although that low VIX really concerns me. SPY has, if it holds into the close and doesn't dump, has established a very new 'trend' to the upside, which will take or be led by the stronger sectors. If not, more flippe-floppes ahead.


Buy Long

XLF @ $37.59

jog on
duc
 
No mercy in this market. Shoot first, ask questions later.

Sell to close:

XLF @ $37.80 (winner) but weaker than expected.
PJP @ $80.05 (loss)
IHF @ $271.01 (winner) but both health based stocks did not move enough to warrant holding.

Buy to Open

OC @ $105.30

jog on
duc
 
Today's scan, for tomorrow's possible entries:

ACU
CCS
DUK (you just know this one will happen)
WTS (watch atm)

jog on
duc
 
Added only 1 trade today:

Buy long:

SLV @ $25.87

The market has essentially held the line and exhausted the bears, which should mean that we get for a period of time a bit of a trend rather than the chop of the last month.

GOOG, XLRE are moving nicely.
JETS on the runway.
MANH still waiting to see if/where it explodes.

jog on
duc
 
So a couple of trades today.

Sell to Close:

GOOG @ $2414.77 (win)
JETS @ $26.85 (win)

I actually wanted to hold both of these, particularly GOOG, but the methodology had it as a sell. Will look to buy back into GOOG.

Buy to Open

LPX @ $67.51
OPY @ $49.76

So now I hold Oppenheimer and Manhattan. Odd.

jog on
duc
 
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