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duc's Commodity Trading Thread

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How did you get out of oil with a +

Palladium ——-why long what’s the set up
Rule or indicators?
 
tech/a said:
How did you get out of oil with a +

Palladium ——-why long what’s the set up
Rule or indicators?
Click to expand...


Oil was an average down [LONG]. The strong bounce on lucky news supplied the rest. More luck than anything else, that was an initially very bad entry.

Platinum - is set-up.

jog on
duc
 
So there was a bit of a surprise cut in OPEC:

OPEC+ succeeds, agrees to cut 1.2 mb/d. The obvious major news of the day comes from Vienna. OPEC+ agreed, despite a lot of jockeying, to cut 1.2 mb/d of supply beginning in January. OPEC will contribute 800,000 bpd and non-OPEC will cut by 400,000 bpd. The group met on Thursday but cancelled a press conference, raising doubts about the ability to reach an agreement. Iran held up the talks early Friday because it refused to accept limits on its production, although, to be sure, any limit would be symbolic anyway since its output is declining due to sanctions. Iran was exempted from the deal. Oil sank on Thursday and in early trading on Friday, but prices spiked by more than 4 percent when an agreement was announced.

There are no COT numbers yet. Once the numbers come out [guessing that they will be bullish] I'll post them. If they are, I will go long on Monday.

jog on
duc
 
Here is Mr Sadjii's number cited as a fundamental support of prices.

Low oil prices challenge U.S. shale. Drilling activity could fall 10 to 20 percent in the U.S. next year if oil prices stay low, Steven Pruett of Elevation Resources LLC toldReuters. Many analysts see $50 per barrel as a key threshold. “The reality is a lot of them get scared at $50, and their bankers get scared at $50,” Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, told Reuters.

jog on
duc
 
LONG Oil. Still no COT [probably delayed again due to Bush Sr's day]. So anticipating guessing where the COT might be [ie. less bearish].

jog on
duc
 
This week's COT numbers are out. As I've only got in from work, I'll post them up later.

jog on
duc
 
So the new COT number is [-101,714]. Which is a 9% decrease in the short position. The number is bullish in as much as it will probably prevent further [serious] declines, but not so bullish that it will ignite a new trend higher, or not atm.

My [guess] interpretation of the number is that we will see some chop. Hence my [much] shorter term perspective. I'll be looking more long than short, but, I will not be making an outright commitment long until a trend establishes itself and the COT numbers are consistently declining. They are after all still relative to earlier numbers, very short.

jog on
duc
 
I'll be looking for a long position on S&P500 on any intra-day pullback

*Placed a buy LONG at 2645

jog on
duc
 
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