duc's Commodity Trading Thread

[ducati916]

Hi Duc. Have finished my chart . would you prefer I posted on gold digger thread ?

If you are happy to put it here, I am happy for you to put it here. The idea is to make money. Pure and simple.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Here is the Gold COT chart:


jog on
duc

 

[Triple B]

OK thanks.
Im sure you are aware that there is many ways to use the COT data.
I have used it in a different way to you.
I have left out the Producers and swap this time and have correlated the data for the Speculators.
ie Money Manager , Other reportables , Non reportables and a number I called Speculator Net Positions.
As the chart is now Saved I can easily add the Producers net as well and Might do that tonight to see what the results look like.
As I am a shorter term trader (for now) I wanted to see what the speculators were up to on an intra day basis , so I marked the last 10 reports on a 4hr Chart
I used the CMX futures only data GC
This is spot Gold
The Legend :
Blue Arrows are the report Date ie Tuesday Close candle.
Yellow Arrows are the Publishing Date close candle ( 3:30pm EST Fridays according to the CFTC site?)
MM = Money manager net short or long - = net short + = net long
OR= Other reportables net short ,long
NR = Non reportables net short or long
SN= Speculator net short or long
Dates are in Australian format D/M/Y
also atatched is a 4hr chart wide view for the bigger picture . Has report days marked
Will also do similar chart for a period when gold was in a strong bullish trend and another for bearish trend when time allows.
Its a bit cluttered but manageble.
Have not checked over the data for errors yet as got tired. about 4 hrs work here!


Notice the MM net short on 9/10/18 -109000 then the next week 16/10/15 -49382
This was the week the Stock markets had the large "correction"
anyway you may find it interesting , I did

 

[ducati916]

Triple B

I may be missing the point here. Given that the data is historical, how would you use that trading intra-day going forward?

Is there some rule that you can create from the data that informs the position that you take?

Not sure why the line through is happening [ignore it].

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The current report seems to be held up due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

jog on
duc

 

[tech/a]

Triple B

I may be missing the point here. Given that the data is historical, how would you use that trading intra-day going forward?

Is there some rule that you can create from the data that informs the position that you take?

Not sure why the line through is happening [ignore it].

jog on
duc

Meant to comment yesterday
I know you spent a lot of time on this Triple B
But it’s a chart marked up in hindsite. It has no value that I can see to
The right side of the page.
Like all analysis it needs to be helpful going forward
Perhaps you can fill in the gap?

 

[Triple B]

At work on ph. I'm trying to see a market reaction on day report is published and if there is a common pattern.who was on right side of trade at report date and how the big money react to trend lines support and resistance if at all.also knowing if large mm is all short for coming week and market hits support could be strong long if they need to cover and vice versa

 

[Smurf1976]

I think oil has come too far, too fast and a bounce is coming.

Looking at past major declines in oil, particularly 2008 and 2014, it could be argued that this one is only just getting started and has a lot further to go.

Those previous two both resulted in a fall of around 70% peak to bottom. If that occurs this time then we're looking at prices in the low $20's.

 

[ducati916]

Looking at past major declines in oil, particularly 2008 and 2014, it could be argued that this one is only just getting started and has a lot further to go.

Those previous two both resulted in a fall of around 70% peak to bottom. If that occurs this time then we're looking at prices in the low $20's.

On a % basis that is certainly true and of course possible. 2008 was straight down. 2014 at least gave a short lived bounce.

It would seem and it has been stated, that the shale producers are profitable down to the $40/barrel level. If that is so, you would expect the supply to come off around that $40/mark. Against that argument it would seem that historically [private oil producers], this has never been the case, they pump and pump. OPEC still seems to be dithering, so atm, $40/oil looks [quite] likely and if OPEC/Shale does not take off supply, as you say, $20/barrel might be on the cards.

There are still not COT numbers from last week published yet.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

At work on ph. I'm trying to see a market reaction on day report is published and if there is a common pattern.who was on right side of trade at report date and how the big money react to trend lines support and resistance if at all.also knowing if large mm is all short for coming week and market hits support could be strong long if they need to cover and vice versa

Gold is an altogether different beast to Oil. The rule for oil does not translate to gold. With gold it is better to close the trade on the Friday and re-establish a position on the Monday, but even then it a tricky [subjective] entry/exit.

So COT report 30 Oct available on 3 Nov. Tradeable as of 5 Nov. (this corresponds to bar 2). Open SHORT on Monday, close on Friday [profit]

COT report 6 Nov available 10 Nov. Tradeable as of 12 Nov. Open SHORT on Monday close on Friday [Loss]

COT report 13 Nov. Tradeable as of 19 Nov. Open LONG on Monday close on Friday [profit].



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

All is not however lost. As it can be seen from this chart, the previous chart refers to a potential transition point in trend.



So the bigger question is the validity of the signals from June through September. Also this is where you would probably add in a technical analysis and see that support was the higher probability play at the $112/level.

I personally, seeing the failures at $114 to go lower and the previous strong support at the $112/level would be wary of a SHORT signal at these levels.

jog on
duc

 

[notting]

This is how I have been observing oil for the last couple of years.
I wasn't surprised that the Saudis were able to holt the rise but wasn't quite expecting it to tank like it did. Though looking at what it did from July 2014 I should not have been.
The Saudis have already indicated they are going to bring it back up once it fell to 56 ish. Other analysts have also said they'd prefer to be long than short at this point.
Oil almost always overshoots as it isl like turning a big tanker around, I'm going to be playing it with a negative bias till it's in the low 40s, even though I believe it will not be allowed to stay below 60 for too long, it seems to me that that is the line in the sand.
Don't believe for a minute that Putin is not phased by the current price as he is pretending. They will be freaking out as much as anyone!
It was allowed to bottom for 2 years from the 2014 plunge, probably won't be held there for that long this time.

 

[Smurf1976]

The big concern with oil is that politics would seem to be driving the price at the moment far more than anything involving fundamentals or technicals.

That aspect's keeping me out unless it reaches a very low level which clearly can't be sustained.

 

[ducati916]

So still no COT report.

Oil trading higher. For the moment I'll sit tight SHORT oil and LONG gold.

jog on
duc

 

[notting]

The big concern with oil is that politics would seem to be driving the price at the moment far more than anything involving fundamentals or technicals.
That aspect's keeping me out unless it reaches a very low level which clearly can't be sustained.

Yes but the manipulation is so obvious and readable.
The Saudis said over night that 50 oil isn't a problem for them and that it is 'within the range.' Meaning they will not be rushing to shut off taps to make it go higher.
However I believe that statement was simply a prelude to Decembers OPEC and Russia meeting. They are simply pretending it doesn't matter so that they can get others on board to join them with cuts!!!!!
It's easy. They do not like it trading below $60 for elongated periods of time unless it is to try to flush out shale players etc. But that has proved costly and pointless a bit like Virgin's cheap seat flying war with Qantas. Virgin's little war on fares to try to gain market share didn't go so well for them, did it!?
The Russian's especially need a higher oil price and the Saudi's don't want to be the only ones doing all the cutting. The Saudis will get their way one way or another and none of them are in the mood for a prolonged weaker oil price after what they have just been through.

 

[ducati916]

The COT numbers are out.

Oil (-97,948) an increase of 5% in SHORT
Gold (-20,276) big turnaround from LONG to SHORT

I'll stay SHORT Oil.
I'm going to think on Gold overnight.

jog on
duc

 

[tech/a]

Duc
Don’t you risk missing a good part of a reversal
Thinking ( procrastinating) waiting for a sign
Or are you looking to time the change of trade.

 

[ducati916]

The COT numbers are out.

Oil (-97,948) an increase of 5% in SHORT
Gold (-20,276) big turnaround from LONG to SHORT

I'll stay SHORT Oil.
I'm going to think on Gold overnight.

jog on
duc

So I'll [have] to flip-flop in Gold. Now SHORT.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Duc
Don’t you risk missing a good part of a reversal
Thinking ( procrastinating) waiting for a sign
Or are you looking to time the change of trade.

There are two [main] problems: (a) when market chops and goes up/down and (b) trend reversals.

Where it is really good is keeping you in a trend. Which is [really] what you want. Generally, the profits far outweigh the negatives of (a) and (b).

Having said that (b) can often not be an issue. It is generally only an issue in a very violent [volatile] 'V' reversal. You'll probably be late in closing/flip-flopping. Otherwise (b) is actually fine and gets you out of the existing position nicely and set-up for the change, unless it goes to chop (a), which is Gold currently.

So in answer to your question, I am looking for a 'timing' signal for the change.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So Gold is the problem child. It is caught currently in chop without any seeming trend. For the moment I have closed out Gold and will stand aside.

Oil however is still consistent with a trend. Subjectively I still feel that it went too low too fast. However I'll remain SHORT.

jog on
duc