DTL - Data#3 Limited

[rcm617]

Probably people a bit disappointed that a large part of the profit lift was made up of increased interest. Got ahead of itself a bit after the profit upgrade in January but should benefit over the next few years with the AI revolution. Second half of the year is usually the better half.

 

[divs4ever]

Probably people a bit disappointed that a large part of the profit lift was made up of increased interest. Got ahead of itself a bit after the profit upgrade in January but should benefit over the next few years with the AI revolution. Second half of the year is usually the better half.

bought this nicely under $1 , has been doing OK so far , despite the fluctuations in share price

i hold DTL ( 'free-carried' )

 

[finicky]

A couple of broker comments following H1 result from FN Arena via livewire.
From UBS we hear, if true, that increased profit was due to interest received rather than operational gain?
Gross margin fell back. More was expected but the brokers (MS and UBS) are maintaining their hold and buy reccs fwiw. Their slightly upgraded target @$8.30 is well below what the share price briefly was before HI result ($10) but above Friday's close @$7.69.
Probably all ignorable. But with annual comp participants required to post puff pieces on their 4 picks each month, this qualifies as a quality post imo, lol.

Held

WEEKLY

 

[divs4ever]

got my toehold into DTL nicely below $1 rescued to cash invested but the profits are still cantering on , ( i hold )

am wondering how long before data centres , especially for archived data ( because some sectors NEED to retain data for 5 or 7 years ) start to become acceptable again ( instead of putting 100% faith in 'cloud storage )

maybe the much touted 'cyber attack ' or cutting of international cables will be the pivot point of strategy

 

[DrBourse]

got my toehold into DTL nicely below $1 rescued to cash invested but the profits are still cantering on , ( i hold )

am wondering how long before data centres , especially for archived data ( because some sectors NEED to retain data for 5 or 7 years ) start to become acceptable again ( instead of putting 100% faith in 'cloud storage )

maybe the much touted 'cyber attack ' or cutting of international cables will be the pivot point of strategy

Hi @divs4ever

Good one M8, DTL @ sub $1.00 was neat…
I know you are too smart to buy in at the current SP, BUT......
Dly Cht has given several Entry Signals (CCI UP, DMI Blue Line UP, SP is BELOW all Buy Zones, Candles reflect a Loss of Downward Momentum, and SP is also Below the Current Support Line, which has now become a Resistance Line).

Any Gamblers out there would need to wait for the Green DMI, and the next few candles to give favourable signals B4 jumping onboard the DTL Train, or as I suspect, the “DTL Train Wreck”…

The Uneducated provided a Good Trade from 2/11/23 to 14/2/24, the RRAI’s worked well IMO..

RRAI’s = Ramps, Rumour, Announcements & Sh..p Indicators…

Bearing in mind the current DTL IV is $5.11, personally I am not interested in DTL atm.

Cheers M8

 

[divs4ever]

put like that ( in a chart ) one might wonder if there is a particularly hostile take-over coming

shareholders should beware of a possible shake-out campaign , there are plenty of unprofitable tech companies looking to bulk up their balance sheet

 

[galumay]

Oooof.

"Following a review under ASIC's new risk-based financial reporting and audit surveillance program, Data3 has restated two recent financial reports. A change in accounting policy resulted in a $1.67b decrease to revenue for the year ended 30 June 2023"

(doesnt impact earnings as there is an equivalent offset in expenses, but sloppy accounting is always a red flag.)

 

[finicky]

Very uncomfortable with this chart. The January/February candle pair is a tweezer top and suggestive of a blow-off top for a grossly overvalued company by my crude method.
It's a dream performer, keeping share issuance flat, growing book value each year and returning stunning ROEs, but it is only worth the current 18 x book value if you believe in uninterrupted growth for the next 5 years or whatever. You'd have to believe that in the context of an increasingly chaotic world scene. I suspect it is automated etf and slavish fund buying that has pushed it this far?
I have been 'price anchored' about selling, hoping irrationally that I'd get another shot at $10. It was a very sudden and sharp reversal though.

Held

MONTHLY

 

[finicky]

New two month low today for DTL
Closed on its intraday low. Obvious daily down channel when zooming out a bit to one year.
Had my chance when looking at it idly above 7.90. Lazy attitude.
Really must try to discipline myself to a trader's short term vision when musing about selling a stock. Investor 'buy and hold' rut cost me a lot of profit when hanging on to the last parcel of my Chalice (CHN) shares.

Held

DAILY 2 months

 

[finicky]

Been wondering about the very recent market outperformance of DTL. Turns out a broker has been backing it - Evans & Partners with a new target of $8.46.
Still super expensive imo.

Price has moved outside the 2-3 month downtrend resistance tail.

Held

DAILY

 

[finicky]

DTL @ 9.26 ^ +7% FY24 out
That's good. Enough to buoy overpriced DTL today anyway. Nagging feeling I should be selling my rump holding.

Held
Dithering

 

[finicky]

DTL one of Market Matters talking pounts on their morning report, my emphasis:

Data#3 Ltd (DTL) $7.72​

For those unfamiliar with $1.2bn QLD-based DTL, it’s a value-added reseller of software and infrastructure products to government and enterprise customers in Australia. According to the company, it was Microsoft, Cisco, and HP’s no.1 reseller in Australia and a top-five reseller for Dell in sales terms in FY23. DTL is a well-run business leveraged to increasing spend on IT; however, we see a few risks into FY25 which have contributed to the stock’s more than 20% pullback from its early 2024 high:

• The QLD government may trim spending and reduce the use of external consultants before October’s election, anything to win votes—the QLD government represents ~20% of DTL’s sales.
• DTL highlighted ongoing delays in IT spending decisions, which could lead to soft 2H sales across the board as companies/Govt. watch costs.
• Infrastructure sales in FY25 look questionable based on the decline in Cisco’s global networking sales, with Cisco making up 50-60% of DTL’s infrastructure sales.

Some areas outside of DTL’s control look set to determine DTL’s earnings in FY25, which is not appealing to MM. The QLD Government is looking to improve efficiency, and with ~55% of DTL’s sales coming from the whole Government sector, the company is at risk of other states following suit. We are sure there is plenty of “fat” in their operation that could be removed. Another important consideration when looking at DTL is how it stacks up against rival $1.6bn Dicker Data (DDR):

• We believe both DDR and DTL are solid businesses with durable moats, but DTL’s more defensive revenue and stronger balance sheet are why we believe it should trade on a higher valuation – which it does, but on 25x and some headwinds in FY25 we believe it’s too rich.

Slight margin declines will likely occur as software continues to outperform and DTL pursues higher-value but lower-margin contracts, offsetting growth in higher-margin Services. Microsoft’s Copilot (AI) rollout represents potential for upside for DTL. Overall, we believe DTL is a solid business with an appealing growth trajectory, but the near-term risks aren’t fully priced in, and the risk/reward isn’t attractive, close to $8.

• We wouldn’t be surprised to see DTL test below $7 into 2025.

^^^
I tend to agree fwiw
Held
trading stance

 

[divs4ever]

DIVIDEND TYPE	DIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)	FRANKED	EX-DIV DATE	PAY DATE
Final	0.129	100.00%	13/09/2024	30/09/2024
Interim	0.126	100.00%	13/03/2024	28/03/2024
Final	0.119	100.00%	14/09/2023	29/09/2023
Interim	0.100	100.00%	16/03/2023	31/03/2023
Final	0.107	100.00%	15/09/2022	30/09/2022
Interim	0.073	100.00%	16/03/2022	31/03/2022
Final	0.095	100.00%	15/09/2021	30/09/2021
Interim	0.055	100.00%	16/03/2021	31/03/2021
Final	0.088	100.00%	15/09/2020	30/09/2020
Interim	0.051	100.00%	16/03/2020	31/03/2020
Final	0.071	100.00%	13/09/2019	30/09/2019

i bought mine in 2013 @ 88.5 cents a share

am fairly confident i got my cash back in dividends

and they sit among others in my 'bottom drawer '

if the QLD Government was genuine about trying to win an election .. they would put a BIG boot in the butt of the CFMEU members which seem too busy erecting ( CFMEU ) flags rather than finishing the car-parks at the two hospitals i have visited this year ( and their construction pantomimes block traffic as well , further annoying sick old pensioners ( one of the few remaining ALPO voting blocks )

re- the DTL reliance on Government ( and semi-government) contracts , that will be a two-edged sword , the Government needs to increase productivity without just obviously cleaning out dead-wood ( making them study for new qualifications/certifications hides them from the unemployment lines )

but realistically Queensland doesn't have much of an opposition party ( although Rob Katter Jnr. does the best he can at that )

i suspect the Queensland ALP will just go through the motions ( and shuffle a few faces ) and accept another term ( whether they deserve it of not )

 

[finicky]

Held
Sell prospect

From Market Index:

 

[divs4ever]

going below $1 , perhaps ( so i can add more ) ?

my av. SP is 90.5 cents , am not likely to panic sell anytime soon

 

[finicky]

Market Matters afternoon report

• Data#3 (DTL) +6.05% rallied on upbeat commentary at their AGM, the cloud hosting provider’s sales pipeline is strong says the CEO.

Held
Reduce intention due to overvalued

 

[divs4ever]

one of my 'lesser successes ' ( only up $6.?? a share here ) ( see the KPG post recently made )

i have de-risked this baby , it still pays divs. ( which look trivial at the current share price )

unless management does something crazy/unattractive my holding can sit in the bottom drawer for me

but others may have different goals

held and holding ( so far )