Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Dow Futures Up!

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MRC & Co said:
Yes, but from the OP, it appears the question is, "if I go to bed now and the DOW futures are up, what is the likelihood the OZ market will move higher the following day". Depends what time you go to bed, and what time you record the OZ market the following day.

But you may be right Tradism.
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I'm only pointing out what Nick said, and pointing to his post because it may be relevant for Gundini. IMO, any correlation between US futs before bed time and XAO will be several steps removed from any correlation between close of US equities and XAO. But I haven't checked it out. I don't have a clue. :)
 
MS+Tradesim said:
Gundini,

Is this kind of what you're after?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382508&postcount=11
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Yes exactly:

But I don't really understand the stats. Are they stating that over a year the DOW rebounds irrespective of what the SPI does?

sammy84 said:
Haven't been keeping data, but from memory I know since about late December the futures have been a pretty accurate portrayal of what the US is going to do and subsequently the ASX. If the volatility returns however, the futures will be useless again.
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Can't imagine there is a corelation really outside of the obvious, but does anyone find this benefitial to their trading?

MRC & Co said:
Yes, but from the OP, it appears the question is, "if I go to bed now and the DOW futures are up, what is the likelihood the OZ market will move higher the following day". Depends what time you go to bed, and what time you record the OZ market the following day.

But you may be right Tradism.
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Depending what time you go to bed is probably as accurate as we can get to the future!
 
MRC & Co said:
US closed tonight anyways for the holiday of the King I believe.

Got no stats on it, guess it depends on what time you took the US futs figures and the OZ figures.

Reckon we may get a bit of hope this wk, but depends how much Asia and Europe buy it. This morning was a good example, US rallied hard, Asia threw it to the wall.

Tradism, Radge' stats were on what the SPI does following a gap up or down, not on how likely the SPI will rally followed on from US futs being up or down the night before.
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They may be closed but they are moving around on Bloomberg.

Dropped around 20 points in the last hour!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
 
They are open for the European session.

I really don't know what you are going to take out of pre-open futs other than where the market is going to open. You are dreaming if you think they are giving you an indication of the days direction AFTER open.
 
Trembling Hand said:
They are open for the European session.

I really don't know what you are going to take out of pre-open futs other than where the market is going to open. You are dreaming if you think they are giving you an indication of the days direction AFTER open.
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That's a fair comment, and I don't expect anything really.

I am interested though if anybody has any data on the subject.

All I know now is that I feel better that the futures are up, and the knowers aren't planning to crash the market in the morning!

If that was their plan, I suspect we would know by now.

I suppose I am just asking if anybody has found a correlation, or more precisely an edge?
 
In a bull market you actually don't want up opens. ;) Believe me I have the stats.

In a Bear market it simply doesn't matter. ;) Believe me I have the stats.
Up open or down open.


By the way there is an edge but its not a simple one. It all depends on previous days as to what happens when you get gaps from the open.
 
TH, on a slightly different subject do you have any stats on -

Monday open is lower than Mondays close (up day) and whether this has any correlation to Friday closing higher - at or close to its weekly highs?

or vice versa

Monday open is higher than Mondays close (down day) and Friday closing lower?

It might be more relevent if Mondays open & close are at opposite ends of the daily bar - if there is any relevence at all.

It is just something I've been looking at with stocks but haven't done any stats on yet.

Thanks
 
Once again I am with you Mr. B I reckon on 2 weeks, word is Gold is going to rocket next month, things are now changing by the hour like some horror movie were reports are coming in from all over the World, we have to hope B O get this crown with out some Redneck doing him in.
I heard the word Depression mention 3 times tonight first time ever in that context.
 
Anyway, the Dow Futures are not up!

But they are heading in the right direction to possibly be up by the market open.

Earlier in the day they were down 135 odd, and now down 70.

How do these futures move?

Considering most of the US is sleeping, is it the other country Index Futures Traders that move the futures?

How does it work? I mean who moves these futures?
 
Having watch the Dow Futures over the past few months I don't put much faith in it as an indicator of where the US markets will end on the day unless it's a big move combined with some overall market moving event.

The european markets though move somewhat in sync with variations in the Dow Futures however.
 
Yes, agree Dr, still a fairly good move tonight from 135 to 41 down,

and the Big Event, Obama, telling the world it's all good? :cautious:
 
One good thing about guessing which way will go on any given day is that there is about a 50% chance of being right.

On that basis I'll guess that on Obama's big day the Dow will be down and that if it is not it will be below present levels by the end of the week.
 
drsmith said:
One good thing about guessing which way will go on any given day is that there is about a 50% chance of being right.

On that basis I'll guess that on Obama's big day the Dow will be down and that if it is not it will be below present levels by the end of the week.
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Good guess :)
 
DJIA INDEX 8,227.00 -95.00

There we go, it was a mistake!

I feel better now...

Thought I was going mad at the minute...:cautious:
 

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