Don't buy a house. Buy shares. $20,000 to $7,400,000 in 30 years

[Stormin_Norman]

shares now may seem cheap. but in the future they may seem expensive.

look at a real (adjusted for inflation) graph of the DOW between 1925 and 1960; and again from 1970 to 1980.

 

[nomore4s]

Sir Osisofliver ya kidding!!

Is he talking to you or Tech?

But either way I'm rotflmao big time.

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

Sir Osisofliver ya kidding!!

Sorry I did mean Tech not you

 

[tech/a]

Thanks O

Patronising is normally my specialty.

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

Is he talking to you or Tech?

But either way I'm rotflmao big time.

I'm not sure I understand the levity here guys do you think I am joking? I'm not saying you can pick it exactly - but to take advantage of the circumstances you don't NEED to pick the exact moment that the market turns. I've seen it in another thread where another adviser started doing things in August 07 - but admitted that they couldn't do the same for their clients.

I was able to do it in '02 and I've done it again in '07 - yes I know two times doesn't make a trend - but tell me now if you don't want me to detail this out - It's not like it won't save me a heap of time and effort writing it out.

Sir O

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

Thanks O

Patronising is normally my specialty.

Look tone is really hard to convey in a written medium - I don't mean this to sound patronising and I apologise if it does. Bottom line - as much as the real estate agents will tell you that property is the best and as much as the stock brokers will tell you that shares are the best - 1) you need both asset classes and 2) It's possible to TIME your investment into each asset class effectively.

Sir O

 

[tech/a]

Statement made by TH on 15 August 2007

I'm guessing the "correction" will end when people stop comparing this to previous ones.
This is different. This was distribution then a fall. Not a run up of hot money and an Unwinding of leverage. This is a bubble bursting in credit, not a nasty pull back and run higher which in its self is a part of a bubble. Bubbles do not unwind in three weeks and when they involve hard assets (US houses) they tend to have effects on the world economy.

Just before you start jumping up and down I didn't say that stocks where in a bubble, just credit. and the Financing of Real estate. What sort of effect does that have on the economy. Ironically part of this mess is a result of the Japanese real estate bubble that goes back 20 years. Have a look at what has driven this credit bubble. The Yen carry trade. Its so linked you have to laugh. Rates that are so low tyring to stimulate growth that has never really got going since money was poured into Sub prime real estates bubble 20 years ago have had there effect 20 years later to fund anther credit/real estate mess. To perfect to believe.

And If you have time you may wish to follow the analysis on this thread from post 546 posted by tech/a.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=28

As I have said before

To spruik how dumb the general populace is with regard to cycles-----I certainly wouldnt narrow it to
You guys.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Statement made by TH on 15 August 2007



And If you have time you may wish to follow the analysis on this thread from post 546 posted by tech/a.

Thanks for that Tech my crystal balls was flying around then. But that goes to my point about creating wealth is best done through a business not hindsight asset game.

I mean there is many here that picked this mess that we are in. Many, you included. Many punters that are actual traders. But how many have nailed it to make REAL $$. And in hindsight everyone should of made more. It all looks easy in hindsight. But if actual traders find it difficult to implement their correct ideas what hope has the punter? Better to create a biz.

But Financial advisor's know that, that's why they sell a "service". :

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

Statement made by TH on 15 August 2007



And If you have time you may wish to follow the analysis on this thread from post 546 posted by tech/a.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=28

As I have said before

Ok Now I'm confused Tech

1) I know you like wave analysis - I was being cheeky - when I get to that in the Newbies thread I want you to comment on my remarks. Please. As much as I started the thread and it is substantially my pet project here - I do not assume I am the font of all knowledge - there is always something to learn.
2) I know you also picked that the market was peaking - See it's not hard when you know what to look for (Although wave analysis is more technical, slightly more subjective, and probably requires a lot more experience than most newbies have), although I like to use wave analysis in conjunction with fundamental factors which I will detail in the Newbies Thread.
3) You're last comment about spruiking my view on cycles - Are you agreeing with me that most people forget about cycles???

Ok I just re-read your response to me originally - Maybe it's because I hadn't had my morning coffee when I read your remarks - or because I skimmed it speedreading style and missed some comprehension - but I realize I was projecting a negative sarcastic tone on your remarks. Sorry - Maybe I'm being too sensitive being under the pump at present.

Cheers

Sir O

 

[tech/a]

Ok Now I'm confused Tech

1) I know you like wave analysis - I was being cheeky - when I get to that in the Newbies thread I want you to comment on my remarks. Please. As much as I started the thread and it is substantially my pet project here - I do not assume I am the font of all knowledge - there is always something to learn.

I commend you for your effort after 7000 posts of my own i know the amount of time and effort it takes. Interesting reading --- I havent commented as Ive had neither the time or the inclination as there is so much to wade through. More a practical thing than anything else.

2) I know you also picked that the market was peaking - See it's not hard when you know what to look for (Although wave analysis is more technical, slightly more subjective, and probably requires a lot more experience than most newbies have), although I like to use wave analysis in conjunction with fundamental factors which I will detail in the Newbies Thread.

Ye well as T/H points out quite a few did pick it and I did manage to protect my financial situation better than most
BUT I didnt participate in possibly the greatest SHORT trading opportunity I'll ever see in my lifetime.

I dont care how good people/I are at analysing ANYTHING if they DONT participate then they may as well have not had any interest at all in that which they analysed.
I've always said.

(1) Most recognise opportunity
(2) Few understand how to take advantage of it
(3) Fewer still actually do anything!

3) You're last comment about spruiking my view on cycles - Are you agreeing with me that most people forget about cycles???

Here or the population at large?
Here most have a grasp I think
The general populace dont have a clue and dont care (Until its too late to care!)

Ok I just re-read your response to me originally - Maybe it's because I hadn't had my morning coffee when I read your remarks - or because I skimmed it speedreading style and missed some comprehension - but I realize I was projecting a negative sarcastic tone on your remarks. Sorry - Maybe I'm being too sensitive being under the pump at present.

Cheers

Sir O

No problem I'm usually on the other end.---handing it out.

 

[nooberator]

I'll be dead in 30 years, try 'factoring' that into your equations.

Solid gold coffin anyone?

 

[Tysonboss1]

Solid gold coffin anyone?

Just be be sure to have your family post the details of your burial location so we can rob your grave, oops. I mean pay our respects.

 

[mallymcl]

worth noting this thread was started pre GFC

 

[Tysonboss1]

worth noting this thread was started pre GFC

The GFC does not really change anything, every investment plan should be made knowing that such things will occur at least 2 or 3 times a century, and smaller crashes maybe every 10 years.

If your investment stratergy does not allow for the fact that your holdings can decline top tick to bottom tick by 50%, then you are sitting on a financel time bomb.

 

[Atomic]

Just a thought after reading this thread

Who's property portfolio survived the GFC . march 2010 turndown and is and was producing an income throughout it all,

Did these properties act as a buffer for it all and even if you did see the 09 crash coming and pulled back to cash , would you have bought more properties?

 

[TKline]

Just a thought after reading this thread

Who's property portfolio survived the GFC . march 2010 turndown and is and was producing an income throughout it all,

Did these properties act as a buffer for it all and even if you did see the 09 crash coming and pulled back to cash , would you have bought more properties?

Property survived the GFC because of reckless bribes and handouts thrown on the bubble. Debt piled on top of more debt. What happens now the govt is out of ammo?

 

[Atomic]

Property survived the GFC because of reckless bribes and handouts thrown on the bubble. Debt piled on top of more debt. What happens now the govt is out of ammo?

hmmm im not sure either , but i am not seeing houses for a dollar here yet, unlike the USA

 

[Tysonboss1]

Just a thought after reading this thread

Who's property portfolio survived the GFC . march 2010 turndown and is and was producing an income throughout it all,

Tenants don't stop paying rent just because the share market or property market has a price correction.

And that's all crashes are "price corrections".

Property is the most long term asset there is, you should care if the price goes up year to year. All you should care about is that the rental yield keeps coming in and your principle holds pace with inflation over time, any extra growth is a bonus.