Doing the same thing but expecting a different result

[MichaelD]

Hi All,

Not meaning to be rude, but I just can't help but bluntly state the following...

I find it extraordinary dropping in for a visit here and reading recent posts seeing that people do not appear to be learning the blindingly obvious...and then continue to be surprised or outraged that they lose money trading the markets. Some even manage to blame other people for their losses.

Wake up and smell the roses, folks!

1. If it's going down, SELL IT. It's NOT a bargain. It's a falling knife.
2. If it's going up, BUY IT.
3. NEVER meet a margin call. NEVER throw good money after bad.

 

[tech/a]

Michael your not in my view being rude.

From the lack of response your post may have been like a spear to the heart in some (Read most) ASF members.

Having a read of the A-Z stock threads really hammers the point you make home.
"Follow the herd---get herd results."

It never ceases to amaze me reading some of these posts how so many great speculative opportunities turn into longterm value investments.

 

[Smurf1976]

Doing the same thing but expecting a different result?

I tend to quote that one quite often as being the very definition of stupidity whether it's the markets, engineering, politics or anything else. Very common but not very sensible under most circumstances.

 

[tech/a]

Smurf.

Opens the thread to cliche.
"Common sense isnt all that common."

 

[MichaelD]

your post may have been like a spear to the heart in some (Read most) ASF members.

Sure is lots of pain around at the moment - the unbelievably powerful urge to be right instead of profitable is in ample evidence at the moment.

 

[dhukka]

There definitely has been an increase in the number of people blaming everything except themselves for their investment/trading failures. It's the hedge funds, short sellers, lack of disclosure by directors, panic selling etc. The real cause is that a lot of people simply don't know what they're doing.

One question that keeps popping up is "Why is XYZ down so much?" A more relevant question from a fundamental perspective is "Was XYZ deserving of its previous price?"

On the bright side MD, if it weren't for the stupidity of others, it would be much more difficult to make money in the stockmarket. I guess I should add a cliche as well. I'll use one coined by the Oracle of Omaha which I think is particulary prescient;

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

 

[ithatheekret]

Not a bad quote from Mr Buffett there Dhukka , but in keeping with rules 2, 3 and 4 as was eloquently put by Micheal , perhaps we could also say ....

Don't fight the tide , it can take you with it , wait for it to ebb and then start swimming .

Just watch out for sharks .

 

[Julia]

Hi All,

Not meaning to be rude, but I just can't help but bluntly state the following...

I find it extraordinary dropping in for a visit here and reading recent posts seeing that people do not appear to be learning the blindingly obvious...and then continue to be surprised or outraged that they lose money trading the markets. Some even manage to blame other people for their losses.

Wake up and smell the roses, folks!

1. If it's going down, SELL IT. It's NOT a bargain. It's a falling knife.
2. If it's going up, BUY IT.
3. NEVER meet a margin call. NEVER throw good money after bad.

Good to see such a clear and basic message. Goodonya, Michael.
Hope it might prevent a few customers from gobbling up all those 'bargains' as they continue to slide.

 

[nioka]

Hi All,

Not meaning to be rude, but I just can't help but bluntly state the following...

I find it extraordinary dropping in for a visit here and reading recent posts seeing that people do not appear to be learning the blindingly obvious...and then continue to be surprised or outraged that they lose money trading the markets. Some even manage to blame other people for their losses.

Wake up and smell the roses, folks!

1. If it's going down, SELL IT. It's NOT a bargain. It's a falling knife.
2. If it's going up, BUY IT.
3. NEVER meet a margin call. NEVER throw good money after bad.

Can't agree with you on 1 and 2. I have had plenty of good stocks that I would have lost out on by following those guide lines. My idea is different.
1. If it going down THINK as to whether you should sell it or whether you should buy more.
2. If it is going up look to see if is going too far. It MAY be a good time to sell, then again it MAY be a good time to buy.
2. Forget about margin borrowing unless you are prepared to lose the lot. There are as many exmillionaires as there are millionaires that have used margin borrowing. The money is usually made margin lending and not margin borrowing.

 

[Nick Radge]

1. If it's going down, SELL IT SHORT. It's NOT a bargain. It's a falling knife.

 

[tech/a]

Can't agree with you on 1 and 2. I have had plenty of good stocks that I would have lost out on by following those guide lines. My idea is different.
1. If it going down THINK as to whether you should sell it or whether you should buy more.

Your making a judgement if its going down it isnt making you money WHEN it goes up then consider.Do as Radge suggests if its shortable.

2. If it is going up look to see if is going too far. It MAY be a good time to sell, then again it MAY be a good time to buy.

The reverse of the above.

3. Forget about margin borrowing unless you are prepared to lose the lot. There are as many exmillionaires as there are millionaires that have used margin borrowing. The money is usually made margin lending and not margin borrowing.

Really Id like to see the figures that lead you to that conclusion.
The correct use of leverage is the fast track to wealth creation.
Its the incorrect use which sets up disaster.

 

[MRC & Co]

"Doing the same thing but expecting a different result" - great quote.

Appears the forums are full of mum and dad investors who hope that beleif in their stocks will push up the price but dont seem to analyse either fundamentals, technicals or intermarket analysis.