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Direction of Housing?

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According to Westpac , the OZ house correction is largely over.
Westpac’s influential chief economist Bill Evans has become the latest forecaster to declare the housing market price slump won’t be as bad as initially feared.
But he has warned the housing market will remain on edge in the near term with prices expected to hold flat this year with a sustained recovery only coming in 2024.

Westpac had previously flagged a further 7 per cent fall in prices this year.
“Australia’s housing correction is largely over, several factors combining to produce a stabilisation,” Mr Evans and senior economist Matthew Hassan said in a market update on Monday.

“Prices now expected to lift 5 per cent in 2024, revised up from +2 per cent.”

They noted that increased migration, rising construction costs and a lower level of supply were contributing to the market’s stabilisation.

Prices nationally held flat in February, posted a 0.8 per cent gain in March and are tracking a similar gain for April based on daily figures for the month to date, Westpac said.

Westpac has revised its forecasts and now see a peak to trough decline nationally of 10 per cent in housing prices, rather than 16 per cent as previously forecast.
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Big call, seeing as there is no garantee we are done with the interest rate rises, which could push more people into arrears and eventually default.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
According to Westpac , the OZ house correction is largely over.

Big call, seeing as there is no garantee we are done with the interest rate rises, which could push more people into arrears and eventually default.
Mick
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2 million coming in this decade. There isn't enough housing being built. I think it's about half of what needs to be done per year
 
Two seemingly diametrically opposite articles from the Evil Murdoch Press.
Firstly, This one talks of an 'Unexpected " property rise that may trigger further rate rises.
New mortgage lending and home building approvals lifted solidly in May, underlining an unexpected rebound in the property sector that could tip the Reserve Bank into hiking rates for a thirteenth time at its Tuesday board meeting.
The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed new housing loan commitments climbed by nearly 5 per cent in May to $24.9bn, well above the consensus forecast for a 1.4 per cent rise.

Separate ABS figures also revealed a 20 per cent jump in the number of dwellings approved in May versus the previous month, albeit driven by a nearly 60 per cent spike in the volatile apartment unit approvals, led by a large number of apartment developments approved in NSW.

In contrast, approvals to build stand-alone houses were more subdued, the ABS said, lifting by 0.9 per cent in May after dropping by 3 per cent in April and continuing to show a downward trend.
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And then in the same edition there is this article warning that housing may be heading for a double dip as the rebound shows signs of fading.
House prices defied the odds and rose again in the month of June – the fourth month of consecutive increases, but fears of a “downward adjustment” in the market are intensifying.
Rising mortgage rates and a potential lift in the volume of housing stock for sale threaten a reversal of this year’s surprise upturn.

CoreLogic’s latest figures show the overall pulse of the market is “decelerating” as June prices gained 1.1 per cent against 1.2 per cent for May. The slender improvement in overall prices – national prices are up 3.4 per cent since February – is clearly vulnerable.


The immediate risk is that the RBA may well pierce the reflating market if it pushes through a 13th rate increase when the board meets on Tuesday afternoon.
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Gotta get my head around these competing scenario's.
Mick
 
As can be seen from the chart below, housing completions unsurprisingly lag housing approvals.
if this trend is maintained, the housing shortage is only going to get worse.
Mick


1721711085824.png
 
mullokintyre said:
As can be seen from the chart below, housing completions unsurprisingly lag housing approvals.
if this trend is maintained, the housing shortage is only going to get worse.
Mick


View attachment 181349
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Big developers seem to have stopped building in nsw. I'm hearing from Estate agents that they are not buying land to develop.
 
moXJO said:
Big developers seem to have stopped building in nsw. I'm hearing from Estate agents that they are not buying land to develop.
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Well is that because there is no confidence in the apartment sector? Opal Towers etc is fresh in the minds of buyers and when land value only makes sense if you can go up, but no one wants to buy the product that's a problem.

If no one wants to buy the go up product (apartment), it's because they don't have confidence in Government oversight of standards.

IMO just another example of unintended consequences, of a flcked up Government outsourcing critical responsibilities, yet again. 🤣

Also doesn't the Government already know that it is a problem and why they are trying to encourage overseas build to rent investors, with tax incentives,
just another case of unintended outcomes, when you are trying to patch a dam breaking, with band aid solutions while trying to make sure you're on the life raft. :roflmao:
 
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The Queensland government have announced a housing development on a flood plain.
I am sure it will work out ok.
From ABC News
The Gold Coast council and Queensland government are at loggerheads over a major housing development proposed a stone's throw from the Titans' home ground.

The Miles government wants to build 2,750 homes on a flood plain next to Robina Stadium — the first project to be considered under the State Facilitated Development (SFD) pathway — but the council says it is too big and will overwhelm the suburb's roads, schools and hospital.

The SFD is a new fast-track approvals process that requires applications to be assessed within 75 business days and for the projects to start within two years.
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Mick
 
At the rate of net loss of citizens from the cities, the shortage of housing should be relieved by around 2075.
Unless you live in Brisbane or Perth.
Mick
1727945886508.png
 
Unfortunately, it is difficult to verify these figures, but even if they are remotely accurate, its a damning reflection on the sector.
And you cannot blame the unions.
The bosses who run these companies have happily gone along with it all as they line their own pockets with ridculously high salaries.
Mick

1728288443809.png
 
mullokintyre said:
Unfortunately, it is difficult to verify these figures, but even if they are remotely accurate, its a damning reflection on the sector.
And you cannot blame the unions.
The bosses who run these companies have happily gone along with it all as they line their own pockets with ridculously high salaries.
Mick

View attachment 185548
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Where did you get those figures?
 
mullokintyre said:
From AFR
View attachment 185556
For me the killer quote is the following by Ms Owens
View attachment 185557

Mick
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Add to that the Oal Towers and Mascot Towers fiasco and there is little wonder the appetite for apartments has fallen away IMO.

www.afr.com

What are Australia's other defective towers aside from Sydney's Opal Tower?

Often the subject of quietly buried legal settlements, building defects claims are not transparent. Maybe Opal Tower will change things.
www.afr.com www.afr.com
 

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