Did you suffer before doing well or vice versa?

[blaster]

The futures have been great lately... but stocks have been porcupine esque when it comes to entries by the looks...

I know nothing about futures I mainly I spose you'd call it swing trade at 5-25% which has done me really well up until just recently . Sorry state of late though .
Do agree with trembling though there is so many opp's out there with things the way the are .
If I could read it I'd prefer it to any to tell you the truth but hell you can't even read BHP or RIO at the moment - I can't anyways. To me probably the most two predictable stocks on the market that I know off.
But there's no pattern right now anywhere - resistence mean nothing , charts , who buys out who . Things take off this time last wk yet good news from the states this wk at the same period but it dies - all very weird right now .
One company does something huge- nothing , another does nothing , jumps 40% she's a whole new animal lately isn't it - well to me anyway which I guess all the pro's have delt with many times eh.
Where as I do agree with trembling I also see other remarks here as she is certainly not behaving herself and without the experience and the old account looking pretty grim- beginning to wonder if I should be on that fence for awhile.
Cheers

 

[tech/a]

(1) I dont think you know whether your trading plan or the way your trading has a positive expectancy.From what youve written

Meanwhile the very stock I've had in mind and ordered but cancelled - comes in and even well under what I was willing to pay for it if only I'd waited which I spose happens to everyone but I do seem to be doing extra well in that area lately .

I doubt you have one which you know will return consistent profit---hit and miss,in a bull market you can have more hits than misses.

(2) It appears you only trade long. If you dont have the capability of trading short and your trading stock only the next few years will see you out of the business of trading.

(3) More than likely your holding your losers and cutting your winners short.

of all my analysis is the old ordering or selling finger [ on that key board ] seems to be my worst enemy at the moment.

Id take the advice of not trading until you know you have a consistently profitable trading methodology.Its OK for TH to suggest you keep going if you had a clearly profitable method with a blueprint of results that was showing wether you were simply in drawdown or going broke.

Thats about all I can add from the little info presented.
A plans not worth the paper its written upon unless you KNOW WHY its profitable.
If you cant answer this your in the wrong business.---well possibly not for much longer.

 

[mayk]

Talking of BHP it is aging down in LSE tonight No dead cat bounce either for this baby. Someone does not like BHP.....

 

[>Apocalypto<]

How about putting things in paragraphs and then someone might actually read it.

Great post dhukka.

you feel like a big man now.

 

[r m]

BTW: A dictionary wouldn't go astray either.

It looks like the dictionary has already gone astray.

My advice:
Take one trade at a time and try to detach yourself emotionally from the excitement/fear you encounter as you trade.
Before you trade, count to 10, walk around the room. Stop and think, do I really want to do this? Am I sure? Then write down your exit plan. If it goes up I get out at ..., if it goes down I get out at..., after x period of time I ..., etc. Then, if you are sure carry out the trade. Then stick to your exit plan.
You will be right some of the time and wrong at other times. Accept that rather than get upset when you are wrong.

 

[zengin]

Great post Dhukka
Blaster needs advice not a teacher, if you have nothing good to say please dont say anything

 

[Whiskers]

Great post Dhukka
Blaster needs advice not a teacher, if you have nothing good to say please dont say anything

Auh... don't be too tough on the old perennial on-heat magpie. It's about all he knows what to do.

In another thread my old mate dhukka... funny that... he tends to try to make people whom he clashes with... dhukka for cover ... anyway, he had trouble winning the point so he nit-picked on a little spelling error of mine.

Needless to say, he made a spelling error in the very same post and again in the next when he got more excited (trying to) rubbishing me.

The moral of this story... keep your mind on the job at hand... playing the market. Critics will pesta ya like a pissed perrennial on-heat magpie trying to protect their position. :hide:

Aim to take high percentage (fundamental) positions so that if your timing is a bit out you get another bite of the cherry next time around. :bounce:

 

[MRC & Co]

(2) It appears you only trade long. If you dont have the capability of trading short and your trading stock only the next few years will see you out of the business of trading.

Actually, one of the most successful traders I have read about, Gary Smith, basically only traded long for years and on mainly stocks (well mutual funds, but still a "stock" all the same).

Not sure his progress over the past several years, but his trading statements were damn impressive! Weird style of trading, but hey, it worked for him! Barely had a loosing month in over a decade I beleive, 15 years if I remember correctly (only skimmed much of the book).

 

[peter2]

Blaster: If you are serious you will do this.
Review your last ten or more trades. I have prepared a checklist to help you get organised.
If you don't have any written trading plans then I am wasting my time and so are you.

Planning: (5 points total)
Trade setup: the setup was perfect according to your plans. This includes any confimation filters that you might use. (1 pt)
Entry trigger: You identified the price trigger that would tell you when your trade starts. (1 pt)
Exits: You identified the correct price that would invalidate your setup (stop loss). (1 pt)
Exits: You decided on a trailing stop strategy or a price target to take profits. (1 pt)
Position size: You calculated the correct number of shares to buy in accordance with your money management strategy. (1 pt)

Trade Execution: (5 points total)
Entry: You started the trade at exactly the right time and as soon as price triggered your entry. (2 pts)
If you entered asap after you noticed that the trade had triggered but not immediately. (1 pt)
If you entered before the trigger or waited and entered late. (0 pt)

Exit: You exited the trade at the stop loss or the trailing stop or the profit target (breakeven is a trailing stop designed to lower the risk). (2 pts)
If you exited after hesitating, but close to your planned exits. (1pt)
If you ignored or even changed your exit strategy. (0 pt)

Documentation: You have detailed records of the trade including your thoughts about any aspects of the trade. (1pt)


A disciplined trader will score 10/10 almost every time. There will be an occasional 9/10 if either the entry or exit wasn't perfect.

 

[tech/a]

Pete.

This is good stuff but.

Even scoring 10/10 you could still be unprofitable in fact you could go broke.
You need to know that in the long term you either.

(1) Have more winning trades than losing trades.
OR
(2) Your winning trades in aggregate are more than your losing trades in aggregate.
OR
(3) A combination of both.

 

[dhukka]

Auh... don't be too tough on the old perennial on-heat magpie. It's about all he knows what to do.

In another thread my old mate dhukka... funny that... he tends to try to make people whom he clashes with... dhukka for cover ... anyway, he had trouble winning the point so he nit-picked on a little spelling error of mine.

Needless to say, he made a spelling error in the very same post and again in the next when he got more excited (trying to) rubbishing me.

The moral of this story... keep your mind on the job at hand... playing the market. Critics will pesta ya like a pissed perrennial on-heat magpie trying to protect their position. :hide:

Aim to take high percentage (fundamental) positions so that if your timing is a bit out you get another bite of the cherry next time around. :bounce:

Noone has trouble winning points of you because you've been completely wrong with every call you've made on the markets year. Your record speaks for itself.

 

[dhukka]

Great post Dhukka
Blaster needs advice not a teacher, if you have nothing good to say please dont say anything

Funny that, I don't get paid to teach but I do get paid to give advice. I suspect Blaster needs advice on a lot of things, the best piece of advice right now would be for him to stop trading for a while. What he doesn't need is meaningless cliches that he can find on the back of a cereal packet.

 

[tech/a]

Its not about being right its about being profitable.
Being right 30% of the time can still bring massive profits.

 

[MRC & Co]

Funny that, I don't get paid to teach but I do get paid to give advice. I suspect Blaster needs advice on a lot of things, the best piece of advice right now would be for him to stop trading for a while. What he doesn't need is meaningless cliches that he can find on the back of a cereal packet.

I have to agree with this.

Blaster appears to have a LOT to learn and should probably stop and read read read, until he starts risking his $$$.

I am yet to see one trading strategy from him.....

I think he would be better waiting for a bottom of profits, the SP to catch up with this and a turnaround in profits, before he starts investing. And I mean investing.

If you are going to trade, you should learn everything possible and establish your own trading style which prooves profitable (and better than indicies).

 

[blaster]

Funny that, I don't get paid to teach but I do get paid to give advice. I suspect Blaster needs advice on a lot of things, the best piece of advice right now would be for him to stop trading for a while. What he doesn't need is meaningless cliches that he can find on the back of a cereal packet.

You still here dhukka ! Reckon we'll have some fun in the future .
Actually I did a post this morning on exactly what I do and some of my lately wonderful trades , allot of work to but it seems to have gone West.
As I said though I basically do quick trades and shoot for 5 to even 30% sometimes which has gone very well until recently - now west like my post of late though .
I trained and studied my area for 3 yrs and follow my stratergies which I really like and have served me well but - also gone West to lately and suddenly my calls are all wrong.

I also joined an advisery when things started to look ugly on the market knowing I was a bit green to read it under those conditions and their advice actually wiped out a good size chunk of my account .
I also joined another mob and between there stock and their fee - another chunk and I parted company .
I also started actually reading some of the dozens of reports I get in daily when things began getting ugly and again their views costed me.
My calls turned sour of late have only actually taken 20% of it down .

I only deal with me and real people that actually trade now .
But you are right about the break , thinking about it myself - even some p/t work as someone else was saying here - sit back for a mth or two and regroop is my first step. Wifey says I've suddenly become flustered and it has me out of wack . I need it and she's right so that's step one.

Cheers

 

[MRC & Co]

Actually I did a post this morning on exactly what I do and some of my lately wonderful trades

I trained and studied my area for 3 yrs and follow my stratergies which I really like and have served me well

even some p/t work as someone else was saying here - sit back for a mth or two and regroop is my first step.

Cheers

First two paragraphs, where did you post these? Do you use TA (which particular TA strategies?), FA (what do you look for in your FA?) etc?

Last paragraph was suggested by me. As I said, I beleive you need a LARGE base to trade for a living. I would say well over $100k, which is measly if your trying to live off it, unless you can make 50% p.a on average which is RARE (practically unheard of), no matter who tells you what!

Anyways, answer those above questions or point me out to where you posted them? I would be interested to know.

Good luck mate!

 

[cuttlefish]

Peter2 - good post - easily implemented starting point for putting structure around each trade, and also an immediate guide to the beginner as to how emotion gets involved in the equation, and also provides a log to go back over and review.

What do you think blaster? - do you do this already and if not will you give it a go? Even if you take a break from the markets you could at least paper trade Pete's approach for a bit.

I suspect that what youve been doing so far is not trading or investing, but gambling, using the market as your roulette wheel. If only going long this is obviously more succesful in a strong bull market and less succesful in a flat or falling market. If you like gambling and only gamble what you can afford to lose there's nothing wrong with it - though its good to understand that this is the reality of what you are doing. On the other hand, if you want to become a trader or investor then there's plenty of good advice on this thread to get you further on the way.

 

[tech/a]

unless you can make 50% p.a on average which is RARE (practically unheard of), no matter who tells you what!

Do you really believe that?

 

[prawn_86]

Do you really believe that?

I would say for anyone to make 50% pa compounding consistently over a period greater than 5 - 10 years would be very very rare indeed. The longer the timeframe moves out the rarer it would get.

In 10yrs that is turning 10k into nearly $600k.

I sure havn't figured that out yet...

 

[blaster]

(1) I dont think you know whether your trading plan or the way your trading has a positive expectancy.From what youve written



I doubt you have one which you know will return consistent profit---hit and miss,in a bull market you can have more hits than misses.

(2) It appears you only trade long. If you dont have the capability of trading short and your trading stock only the next few years will see you out of the business of trading.

(3) More than likely your holding your losers and cutting your winners short.



Id take the advice of not trading until you know you have a consistently profitable trading methodology.Its OK for TH to suggest you keep going if you had a clearly profitable method with a blueprint of results that was showing wether you were simply in drawdown or going broke.

Thats about all I can add from the little info presented.
A plans not worth the paper its written upon unless you KNOW WHY its profitable.
If you cant answer this your in the wrong business.---well possibly not for much longer.

Thanks for that but ofcause I understand my stratergy crikey and why it works I chose the damn thing and studied it for years - how could you trade otherwise ?
I'd said it served me well consitently and had the account and a couple of very nice cars to prove it - until recently .
I seem to be disobeying my very beginning after somehow getting myself in a state after afew bad calls and adviseries plus new presures in life in life this year along with a crazy market I hadn't delt before.
Things along these lines I know have upset my apple cart hugely for a start and paticularly the damn advisers I'd joined account wise.

I spose the main thing I was actually asking in a way deep down but put it badly was do traders find that they start shooting blanks suddenly at times , maybe presure or getting slack and bitten , has it come back , what did they do , anything along those lines really .
I actually still have 100% confidents in my stratergies they've prooved themselves over and over and consitently . I actually did close to 90% straight calls for 5 mths at one point and not much below that since the day I started - until lately - I wish now ! Couldn't call a one horse bloody race this mth .
It's me that has strayed carelessly, it's left me for some reason i've lost focus and with the market of late that can't be done and i've payed.

Cheers