DCN - Dacian Gold

[finicky]

Dacian Gold (DCN)
Current share price 0.37

Recent substantial purchases on market by insiders.

Director Ian Cochrane
Dec 7
Number acquired: 140,000 on market
Value/Consideration: $49,140k
(0.35 per share)

ManagIng Director Leigh Junk
Dec 4
Number acquired: 1,000,000 on market
Value/Consideration: $350,859
(0.35 per share)

Held
Bid in for 10,000 more

 

[finicky]

Weekly chart comments:
Higher low, rounding low, small bodied candles, narrowed Bollinger bands, positively divergent indicators, possible small head and shoulders completing.

 

[Trav.]

@finicky looking at the weekly chart my fist impression was that DCN is going sideways and waiting on some sort of catalyst for a break out etc.

But looking at the daily reveals another story of volatility and price ranging from .325 to .42 (22%) over the few months - October to December.

Daily below and an interesting stock to watch. Not for the faint hearted

 

[finicky]

@Trav. yes I can agree that the chart is not an emphatic turnaround. I'm surprised that your system or way of viewing it sees volatility as the feature though because an aspect of my interest in the current chart is that I am seeing the opposite (e.g small bodied small range weekly candles, narrowing Bollinger). Maybe the reason is that I look mostly to weekly and monthly (prior post) charts for guidance.

I've also been looking at the progress they seem to be making (cashflow positive, paying down debt, the new acquisition, some exploration success, talk of reviving the u/g Westralia operation) and that might be giving me rosy spectacles. Dacian is speculative for sure because, while a cash generating producer with a nice new plant, its previous model under a different m.d was based on false assumptions of grade and cost.

 

[Trav.]

@Trav. yes I can agree that the chart is not an emphatic turnaround. I'm surprised that your system or way of viewing it sees volatility as the feature because an aspect of my interest in the current chart is that I am seeing the opposite (e.g small bodied small range weekly candles, narrowing Bollinger). Maybe the reason is that I look mostly to weekly and monthly (prior post) charts for guidance.

Just my view of volatility mate, 22% range over the last few months, is volatile to me.

As I mentioned the weekly chart looked very calm and the small bodied candles were squashed up due to the large range 1.75 to current 0.37, but if you zoom in to the 24/4 to present in the weekly it paints a different picture to me (chart below)

But I am sure that if you gave the same chart to 10 people you would get 10 different interpretations, but I believe that it is worth having a look at each version as you might have missed something. The old unconscious bias get get us all.

I am not looking at the fundamentals so you might be on the money there mate.

Sorry to stalk your posts but things are quiet on here and always good to have a look at different stock......and the gold price was having a little run this morning which made this one even more interesting.

 

[finicky]

When I put in my bid @ 0.35 over the weekend I seemed to be near top of the queue. Now there're heaps ahead of me and check out buyers v sellers.

DCN - What's it worth?

After the acquisition of NTM Gold Ltd for the issue of DCN 280m shares - (diluted for options issued to NTM's management) - DCN has:

280m (diluted) +
580m (diluted) =
860m (diluted) shares on issue

To get a notion of how comparatively expensive the share price is, reduce to a hypothetical 100m shares and multiply by recent share price of 35c:

860m x .35 ÷
100m =
$3 per share for a gold miner with a modest 100m shares issued.

New 2.5 mtpa gold plant and infrastructure in a district that has hosted an unusual density of million oz gold mines. Plant performing above plate capacity. Making a profit, has deferred delivery into hedging contracts for greater exposure to spot price.

 

[finicky]

I'm looking at this as a breakout from a shallow, down sloping H&S now and my target is 0.55 but still can't bring myself to chase it. A good pullback and I'm in for more, to lower my cost average, but doubt that i'll happen now.

DCN Daily

 

[finicky]

Hit 0.55 with a shootin' star today. Hope it heralds a pullback because I'm in like Flynn if its a significant one.

Daily

 

[finicky]

I accepted a rough 50% correction of the rally from the November low and bought 10,000 more @ 0.45.
Price is almost at the rising 50 day moving average. Well they're my rationalisations for buying now anyway? really just bored. As an early punter @ $2.65 in DCN under the old drop-kick M.D my average buy price is now at 0.97, need a 2 bagger just to break even. Suppose I should have waited for a reversal signal or two which aren't in the chart yet that I can see.

Daily

 

[mullokintyre]

I accepted a rough 50% correction of the rally from the November low and bought 10,000 more @ 0.45.
Price is almost at the rising 50 day moving average. Well they're my rationalisations for buying now anyway? really just bored. As an early punter @ $2.65 in DCN under the old drop-kick M.D my average buy price is now at 0.97, need a 2 bagger just to break even. Suppose I should have waited for a reversal signal or two which aren't in the chart yet that I can see.

Only a two bagger, I needed a three bagger to get out of it when the crunch came, so I bailed.
Took the pittance i had left and put it into SBM, which has not really done any better.

 

[finicky]

@mullokintyre yes pretty heavy disappointment back in those times, M.D was a salesman, always second guess someone that cultivates facial hair and meets the gaze of the camera with enjoyment and effusive confidence. Not talking about lazy stubble growth, 'cultivates' is the operative word. Different management now, Leigh Junk pulled Doray Minerals out of the muck and seems to be repeating that at Dacian.

Nice new plant, net debt free, manageable hedges, making cash, more open pittable resources from the recent acquisition. The clincher will be if they can recover the capital already invested in underground Westralia at a higher gold price. Not trying to sell it, still a gamble.

 

[finicky]

Seems goldies being thrown away? Added 5,000 more DCN @ 0.39
Feels reminiscent of March when general stocks appeared so cheap, boldness called for, yet could only timidly nibble away at this and that. This will probably turn out to be a time that money could have been made in gold stocks. It's just that big liquid money has temporarily ebbed away for whatever reason. The weekly chart of DCN does not yet trouble me - see the declining volume trend into this pullback since start Jan, albeit this week will finish higher.

A few short term reversal signs today in stocks like NCM, NST, RRL (charts)



DCN Weekly

 

[finicky]

Added 6,000 @ 0.37, cheap, not a chart based buy now, although momentum is suggesting oversold.

Dacian's target, NTM Gold, reported some infill results at its 'Hub' project. Adding continuity confidence to the shallow layer of resource (150 mtrs) ahead of a resource upgrade. Diamond drilling is currently probing what's beneath 150 mtrs depth. Mineralisation already known to occur at 500 mtrs depth - "the deposit remains open at c.500m depth and has a strike of at least 1.2km."

 

[Austwide]

@finicky yes 0.17 is cheap but I think you mean 0.37.

Best of luck

 

[finicky]

Thanks @Austwide - amended. Was on my tread-mill, dizzy

 

[finicky]

In for 10,000 more @ 0.37

Hourly chart - buyers matching sellers - might be something in it, might not. Got sick of waiting for lower.

 

[barney]

Just had a bit of a squiz at these guys @finicky

If you are a medium/longer term holder, I think you will do quite well from your recent investments

Their recent share price downturn now looks way overdone.

Good luck with the "rebound" in the SP. Only a matter of time i think.

 

[finicky]

The new M.D Leigh Junk spent $350 grand on these in early December @ 0.35 - a cool million shares. Doesn't wait to get awarded them via free options or the new craze for the insiders, performance shares.

I remember the chairman and the M.D of Saracen Resources forking out big time for SAR shares back in 2013 @ 17-19c. I was trying to get SAR shares myself at 17c then price went up and I refused to chase it up a few cents. Would have made a hell of a difference if I had.

From the past, note the dates - Saracen Resources (SAR). Not saying DCN is another Saracen.
Chair and M.D buying substantial shares

Guido Staltari, Chairman
8 & 9 August 2013
Number acquired 2,000,000
Value/Consideration $350,229 (average price $0.1751)
On market acquisition

Raleigh Finlayson, Managing Director
13 August 2013
Number acquired 810,211
Value/Consideration $157,181 (average price $0.194)
On market purchase

 

[barney]

Would have made a hell of a difference if I had.

Indeed @finicky

The recent Volume on this says it is at the stage of:

Being sold by punters who are suffering (unfortunately)

Bought by punters with a longer term agenda.

It may well go lower in the short term (who knows)

I think the worm will turn not too far down the track however.?

Good luck with it.

ps My view should be treated with salt/padding and numerous other anti-inflammatories.

 

[finicky]

Another 10,000 added today @ 0.35 from an order I made overnight. Didn't bother to amend it for the gold price dip. Good value as long as Leigh Junk continues to right the ship. At least he buys share of his own company on market, not like most free loader directors. Gold price will come back hard at some point imo.