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From what i see of the charts that you are showing is that it dont matter if it goes past the resistance but it seems to be afarid t go through it so thats where u make your 5 ticks.... But im still not sure if its a good stragety.. Ill have to keep an eye on it
 
Walkabout said:
Hey... So does TG really have a success of 90%. I am new to trading especailly the SPI and i am being taught that my risk/reward ratio should be 2:1.. TG's is 1:2 which means she needs a success rate of 66% to break even. Does not sound right to me.. TG- Do you always short for only 5 ticks?
Click to expand...

SPI is a bit of a different beast to most markets due to the way it moves during the day, so to be successful strategies need to be adapted to its intricacies. SPI is a small market in the scheme of things and can be like watching paint dry most days, if you watch it long enough you will understand the best way to make money from it is to either learn how to capture it's one or maybe two 20 point moves each day or find a way to scalp the 4/5 point chop it has for most of the day - this is what TG appears to do.

tech/a said:
Actually it's a very good strategy with sound technical reasons why it will have such a high win rate and why counter trend trading makes perfect sence.
Click to expand...

Actually TG's best days are when trading with the trend and selling/buying the counter trend moves when they finish. But there is no doubt TG has a bias to the short side atm, will be interesting to see if the results stay the same when the market moves into a bullish phase.

effraye said:
are you making money? selling into strength with such deep value around is kinda suicidal imo
Click to expand...

Not really applicable when scalping.

And lmao of at deep value. Could be plenty more value around in the next few years.
 
I get a lot of PMs asking about which
Cfd broker I use to trade. The Spi is not
a CFD market it's a futures contract
traded on the SFE.You need a broker
who has access to the SFE to trade
the Spi.
 
Actually TG's best days are when trading with the trend and selling/buying the counter trend moves when they finish. But there is no doubt TG has a bias to the short side atm, will be interesting to see if the results stay the same when the market moves into a bullish phase.

This observation is spot on and is my
main weapon in trading the Spi.Not my
only strategy but certainly a big part
of it.
 
Trader Girl said:
Actually TG's best days are when trading with the trend and selling/buying the counter trend moves when they finish. But there is no doubt TG has a bias to the short side atm, will be interesting to see if the results stay the same when the market moves into a bullish phase.

This observation is spot on and is my
main weapon in trading the Spi.Not my
only strategy but certainly a big part
of it.
Click to expand...

This thread started as a humble trader learning the SPI.
It's developed into a trading expert of the SPI holding their
Strategy close to their chest.

With the muppets held in intrigue.

Nothing mysterious to this trading strategy.
That's not my only observation but a big part of it.
 
Walkabout said:
From what i see of the charts that you are showing is that it dont matter if it goes past the resistance but it seems to be afarid t go through it so thats where u make your 5 ticks.... But im still not sure if its a good stragety.. Ill have to keep an eye on it
Click to expand...

I fully agree with those comments made below by nomore4s.

When I first started following the SPI about 10 years ago there were hardly any trades overnight - maybe sometimes only a few 100 and the spreads could be up to 20 points. Over the years it has really grown in size to the point where the spreads are often just point for point. Still overall it is not a big market in the whole scheme of things.

During the day if you are range trading the average range has for a long time been around 40 points though in recent times when the market has been all over the shop the range can be more than double that.

TG has a strategy that works for her and even though her preference may be for shorting it is not silly - remember "up via the stairs and down via the escalator".

After the XJO closes the SPI mainly follows the DJI and if it has a big run there will be either a big premium of discount depending on the direction. I have regularly noticed that the SPI likes to come back to meet the XJO when it opens, or just hovers waiting for the XJO to catch up. If the SPI has done a lot of work overnight it more often than not allows the XJO to have a major hissy fit one way or the other and doesn't do much for the rest of the day but go either sideways or be very choppy.

Mostly the only thing you can do there is scalp though I do know a lot of very patient range traders who work to a very specific pattern.

I realize these are a lot of generalities but working with it for years gives you a bit of a feel for what it "might" do.

I used to be like TG and scalp a few points here and there and in fact I still do that if I have the time. Unfortunately at the moment I am totally time poor as I'm full time carer for my wheelchair bound Dad so use a different method which takes a longer term view.

That last bounce though was a bit of a no brainer - straight off old support. Had it fallen through it would have been TIMBERRRRRR but it didn't and was a perfect long.

IMHO though it has to really hit 4300 and hold convincingly before I would think a decent rally would be on the cards. My bias, unless and until that happens, is still to the short side.

FWIW.
 

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