Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

I set a risk of 1$. So I bought 160 shares with a total risk of 160$. At first I was going to set the risk at 50c which since I am undercapitilzed would mean I only risk 1% but I decided to risk a dollar as I wanted to be well under 40$ for two reasons.

Firstly pshycologically we all know round numbers are stronger support lvls ( I think) and previous support lvl was at 39$ with a standard devation of a dollar I guess.

So to minimize me getting stopped out as I was going to go to sleep I set the risk abit bigger to take into consideration price swings but I didnt set it to big to get me burnt.

Ive come to the realisation that my communication skills are horrible and I give the impression that im arrogant etc but im working on it.

Are you holding longer than 1 day?

 

[pinkboy]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

And you punched in 71% of your capital in your first trade?





pinkboy

 

[barney]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

The opinion of some traders on this forum have swayed me in the sense that I realise I cant short and im shifting my strategy abit to a more agressive short term trade style on rallies. But as foe twitter im up 3% and im going to let it run. I might move stop to Break even once it hits 46$ and confirms support.

Hi Dark,

I preface my opinion with "do what's right for you", but just an observation

You took an initial position with 2% risk .... all good

You are up 3% ..... all good

You are going to wait til it hits $46 till you move your stop to break even ...

You are not sleeping 3 nights running .........

Why not move your stop to break even now and sleep at night?

Bearing in mind stocks can gap overnight pretty severely so even a tight stop may not help

3% in a day or two is pretty good shooting from my experience, and as pointed out, if it dropped $8 in a day, I'd be concerned about a 2% stop holding for any period of time.

Not advice, just observation and I could be totally on tilt. I hope it continues up for ya

 

[skyQuake]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

And you punched in 71% of your capital in your first trade?





pinkboy

This.

Taking an extreme example, look at GTAT US (GTATQ now), -90% gap down in a day out of the blue.

These things will happen... Even to a $1.5bil company. Your portfolio has to be robust enough to be able to recover from a hit like that

 

[darkhorse70]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

tech, the earnings report from what I read met expectations. However that being said I don't even take it into consideration. I usually wouldn't go long after a bad earnings report as it's stupid but from my analysis of the volume I came to the conclusion that supply had been absorbed and I cant think of any where that there maybe overhanging supply. So I took that into consideration that most holders were not going to be shaken easily. Except for the 80mill trades done on that night regarding earnings

TH, I wouldn't mind taking profits quickly in less than a day but im going to hang on to this. My mobile phone app has live data feed for TWTR. Obviously it has a second delay but yesterday I watched the tape and when it got close to 40, the bids kept holding so I jumped on board. On tonight's open I might watch the overall markets and twtr reaction. If they show weakness ill cash in.

Haha pinkboy, from what I've read I should have bought a lot or two and then added on if it went in my position. My capital is only $8000 AUD, convert it to US and its like 7.5K or so. So its not really a big position size but ill learn my lessons if the market thinks its deserved haha.

Thanks for the feedback barney. Usually if the trade starts well, there you have taken one good step forward but from experience, I usually do well on entries but mess up on exits and during the actual play. So I have to work on managing a trade.

I just don't want to move my stop to break even yet as I believe the price could come back down to 40$ and I don't want to be stopped out and miss a possible upmove. Im not very familiar with IB system and its abit confusing so im abit weary.

You are right about the 8$ drop and the 2% stop but the second day the volume had dried up significantly compared to the initial big drop. Im taking that as a sign that the players are calming down. My hope is that people realise that a sell was a bad move and they hop back on board pushing up the price. Ill be ready to sell out on any sign of weakness.

Thanks for the feedback guys

 

[pinkboy]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Haha pinkboy, from what I've read I should have bought a lot or two and then added on if it went in my position. My capital is only $8000 AUD, convert it to US and its like 7.5K or so. So its not really a big position size but ill learn my lessons if the market thinks its deserved haha.

My hope is..................

So its more like 85%?

'Hope' is not a strategy!


pinkboy

 

[tech/a]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Then I guess I have to find as many 'SELECTIVE' trades as I can

Followed by

So I bouggt twitter last night @ 40.20$. Why? Im not to sure.

Then

My brain is abit messed up as my friends been losr in blue mountains for 11 days but I thiught it was a giod R/R

Don't trade.

Subconsciously I have looked at that particular chart so many times so I still believe I know what its doing. To whatever degree that is possible in trading.

Your belief is that its a long trade and over more than a day?



We are looking at the same chart??



My take.

 

[darkhorse70]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)



From the chart as I can see 43$ and 40 and 36$ range are all supports. 43$ could still be a support level which was violated but rebounded and is close to again. The problem is that you don't want to predict a reversal, only hop on board when its confirmed. Unfortunately I tried to predict it but the results will be clear soon.

The good thing is the brokerage fee is so minimal I can get out very quickly with near no damage if its doesn't gap down.

 

[darkhorse70]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

But pinkyboy, its all about hope. If you have a working strategy, you still have a chance of being wiped out as long as your capital is finite I presume. So luck still plays a role but im just being loose with word choices.

But tech that was all before the markets violated some major trend lines. Now Im trying to adapt to new rules.
When I said why, its more so that its hard for me to explain as I'm a bit of an emotional wreck but subconsciously I might still know why but harder for me to explain.

I shouldn't trade but what can I say, I'm a fool.

I can just say that its just a correction after a decent run up. Its come back down to a major pivot point.
What suggests that the trend is broken?

 

[darkhorse70]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Also, it looks as though the gap is just being filled in. There are a couple of factor s in my favour and a couple out of my favour. If the markets keep going up though I believe I will have the upper hand.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Scatter chart of the gaps down for Twitter and this dude's stop in RED. Nothing wrong here,

 

[darkhorse70]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

TH, im assuming that the chart signifies that the probability of me getting stopped out in the 1$ range and more probable than the more extreme spectrum? By the way that's a neat tool. I have to look into that.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

TH, im assuming

Ok I've tried hints (they are not gonna work here)

You may do better to stop reading what you want to believe and hear what is reality.

You haven't got enough capital to be going anywhere near a stock like twitter. You have a 14% chance of taking a 4-20 R loss on this trade.

F'in nuts!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Julia]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Ok I've tried hints (they are not gonna work here)

You may do better to stop reading what you want to believe and hear what is reality.

You haven't got enough capital to be going anywhere near a stock like twitter. You have a 14% chance of taking a 4-20 R loss on this trade.

F'in nuts!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Plus, when you concede yourself that you're an 'emotional wreck', this is no time to be experimenting.
You're all over the place, dh. Understandable when you're worrying about your friend, but consider just accepting that, get out and rethink your whole strategy.
e.g. given your emotional lability, what about putting your very limited capital into a couple of Australian stocks which are stable enough to allow you to take more of a long position which is probably less stressful than trying to manage a situation which experienced traders have probably taken years to perfect.

 

[pinkboy]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Plus, when you concede yourself that you're an 'emotional wreck', this is no time to be experimenting.
You're all over the place, dh. Understandable when you're worrying about your friend, but consider just accepting that, get out and rethink your whole strategy.
e.g. given your emotional lability, what about putting your very limited capital into a couple of Australian stocks which are stable enough to allow you to take more of a long position which is probably less stressful than trying to manage a situation which experienced traders have probably taken years to perfect.

I have to strongly agree here. You would have made circa 10% in the last 2 weeks of (sh)October by just putting some funds into some ASX Top 50 stocks. WES, IAG, SUN, Big 4 banks, WOW, BEN, BOQ, ARG etc. Then you have the dividends coming from NAB/ANZ/WBC before Xmas.

I too feel you have some emotional attachment to Twitter, perhaps a Social Media account addiction?


pinkboy

 

[barney]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Understandable when you're worrying about your friend, but consider just accepting that, get out and rethink your whole strategy.
e.g. given your emotional lability, what about putting your very limited capital into a couple of Australian stocks which are stable enough to allow you to take more of a long position which is probably less stressful than trying to manage a situation which experienced traders have probably taken years to perfect.

Good advice I think Julia.

Dark, firstly on your mate who is missing, that is a very distressing situation. I hope it works out ok.

Mate, there is a possibility you may have picked the short term bottom in your trade. If so, that's great, but heavy gaps to the downside after a long grinding (slightly upward) consolidation often don't end well. (TH gave you the Gap stats ... have a good hard look at those results)

If you get fortunate and do ok with this trade (which I hope you do), bear in mind the odds were against that happening.

Listen the words of the wise here (that's not me by the way) Tech suggested this may end badly ... I know its only one trade, but you need to listen to advice from people who have been trading successfully for a long time so you can hang on to your Capital long enough to be in the game when you finally become a gun trader!!

Good luck with it, and good on you for being man enough to put your trades up for scrutiny, and also having a reasons why you took the trade etc. At least you made an objective assessment of the situation which is more than I do at times

 

[darkhorse70]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Skyquake, missed your post. Thats nuts.

TH, ive got a 14% chance of it gapping down 4-20% you say but your putting the 20 and the 4% in the same probability. As the potential risk increases the probability will decrease. Im not saying you are wrong but you cant expect me to know all this info. Even if the best trader in the world told me, some stuff I have to experience to understand.

I dont understand what stocks im meant to trade then. Dont get me wrong I appreciate the advice and all but I dont understand it hence I cant see the threat. It probably took a lomg time for you to understand the things you possibly know and its hard to dish it out in a few lines.

Julia I dont know if im an emotional wreck. My anxiety has been stemming up from this disaster but I feel trading calms me. As if I have a task and I can hone in and focus. Maybe its good for me.

Thanks barney. I hope he is ok to. Me and him basically did everything together from picking up hitch hikers in barrington tops, to camping, to feeding homeless guys to kfc, to having a crush on the same chicks and having very similar views on life. He is/was a very good/unique character which can never be replaced.

I understand that this trade was the lesser of my good setups but as tech once said there are no perfect set ups. I looked at some odds and the risk /reward and the current potential short rally and said ill trade it. Other than the trade gapping on yhe low side I dont see in any other way why its risky or bad.

By the way the stocks up 2.5% pre market so if I feel any resistance ill cash out and be happy with some gains. Maybe take a break for a week or two.

Thanks for ghe feedbacks. I do appreciate them and I question them so I can get a better understanding of them. I dont disregard them what so ever.

 

[darkhorse70]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Tech regarding the revsal of the trend line I never drew one as I thoughts its to early for a longer term veiw to do as such. But ube seen many more charts then me sp I will be cautious and defensive. THanks

 

[barney]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Thanks barney. I hope he is ok to. Me and him basically did everything together from picking up hitch hikers in barrington tops, to camping, to feeding homeless guys to kfc, to having a crush on the same chicks and having very similar views on life. He is/was a very good/unique character which can never be replaced.

Mate that is devastating ..... I truly hope they find him!

By the way the stocks up 2.5% pre market so if I feel any resistance ill cash out and be happy with some gains. Maybe take a break for a week or two.

Not advice again, but if it goes higher on open, I would be running todays stop so far up its proverbial that you can't see the light of day ..... 5.5 + % in a couple of days on a Stock which has just gapped ferociously to the downside ........ Take the money and run

Seriously, I hope they find your mate!!

 

[darkhorse70]

Re: Darkhorse's "REAL MONEY" trading diary (noob friendly haha)

Barney I might just do that. Its more like 1.6% right now.

I dont know man, ill watch the tape and see how it reacts. Maybe get out amd wait for some confirmation for a long position.

By the way pinkboy I know im bias tpwards twitter because ive just enjoyed watching its chart progress. I got to snap out of it.