Daily Market Predictions

[el_ninj0]

Hey everyone, this thread is for those who either want to voice their opinions about the direction of the market for the current day or next day, or those who wish to want to know what other people are thinking about the market for the day, and their reason(s) for thinking what they do.

 

[el_ninj0]

I think the market was responding to what happend to other countries exchanges on friday. The Oil prices are relitively low compared to recent highs, so I think it will be a positive day tommorow, but I cant be sure yet because the american markets have not yet opened.

Positive go for tommorow I think.

 

[clowboy]

what was up with retail stocks today?

 

[el_ninj0]

I think i'll have to take back that previous prediction, Market Depth isn't showing good confidence in stocks today.

 

[doctorj]

I reckon the ords will be down 10-20pts today.

Profit warning from Ford overnight is concerning; down from US1.5bill profit to breaking even. Signalling (again) perhaps a reduction in consumer confidence. Capital goods are amongst the first to go during an economic down turn.

 

[RichKid]

I saw a short word on the the US trade deficit figures being released today or tomorrow (anything above $59 Billion is supposed to be a surprise). Also General Electric due to report this week. Both will have an impact on the US bourses and hence Australia- especially if it's really bad news.

 

[doctorj]

I'll give it another go today. 30-40 point drop.

 

[el_ninj0]

I'll give it another go today. 30-40 point drop.

i'll second that dj. Im thinking mabey even further than that. Depending on what the base metal prices open at.

 

[el_ninj0]

i'll second that dj. Im thinking mabey even further than that. Depending on what the base metal prices open at.

XAO 4,020.30 -43.00 -1.0582

In the first 10 minutes. Looking like another great day to be a fisherman...

 

[markrmau]

as i write, dow is down .8% but metals (particularly base) are up. and money is flowing back to aud.

i think we may have rebound monday

 

[el_ninj0]

Last updated 09:28 : Sydney Time

Commodities:

Oil Value Change % Change
WTI Oil US$/bl 50.61 -0.5 -0.9783
Precious Metals Value Change % Change
Silver US$/oz 6.99 0 0
Platinum US $/oz 864.6 2.7 0.3133
Gold US$/oz 424.6 0 0
Base Metals Value Change % Change
Copper US$/t 3330 25 0.7564
Aluminium US$/t 1879 16 0.8588
Nickel US$/t 15800 325 2.1002
Lead US$/t 949.5 -5.5 -0.5759
Zinc US$/t 1251 23 1.873
Tin US$/t 8175 150 1.8692

Market Indices:

Index Value Change
All Ordinaries 3993.442 -69.858
Dow Jones 10087.51 -191.24
FTSE-100 4891.6 -53.8
Hang Seng 13638.75 -133.65
NASDAQ 1908.15 -38.56
Nikkei 225 11370.69 -192.48
S & P 500 1142.62 -19.43
SPI Futures 3965 -62

Doesn't look good at all. I think there'll be another huge drop on monday, atleast 50 points.

 

[emily]

not kool at all what do you reckon is the cause of all these ?

 

[el_ninj0]

not kool at all what do you reckon is the cause of all these ?

Well the friday drop is mostly due to speculation of a down turn I think. Nothing really solid, except reports from IBM and future down graded profit reports from GM and FORD, which will not make the markets a nicer place at all.

 

[markrmau]

i think we may have rebound monday

Well when I wrote that, the us was only down .8% (20min delayed yahoo data)

However, after the bloodbath that was apparent at the end of the day, I'm not so sure.

I think we will be green overall next week though. There are many bargain hunters around, lurking to feed off the carcuses of all the traders who blew up last week.

Here are a few snippits from AFR:
[Does anyone have a take on the arbitrage selling mentioned below?]

The S&P/ASX200 is now down 5.91per cent and the All Ords down 6.17 per cent since they both registered record highs on March 21.

Some analysts have attributed the breadth of the sell-off to international investors and hedge funds reducing their exposure to Australia's resources-rich market as commodities prices fell following an unexpected rally in the US dollar.

Others have blamed aggressive selling activity from index arbitrage traders, who seek liquidity through selling large stocks that enjoy high trading volumes.


.....


Some commentators have suggested the Australian market will continue to decline if sentiment in the US worsens during its March-quarter profit-reporting season.

IBM, the world's biggest technology company, delivered earnings well below expectations on Wall Street on Thursday night, and futures contracts indicated another losing session in New York on Friday night.

But local fund managers, who have reportedly been involved in very little of the week's selling, continued to welcome the buying opportunities presented by the pull-back on Friday.

Ausbil Dexia associate director of equities John Grace said he believed the market would turn around and climb back up again in the near future.

"It hasn't had a decent pull-back for a couple of years, so a lot of stocks are now coming back to levels where they will find good buying support," Mr Grace said.

"The market has not crashed by any stretch of the imagination. It is only off a few per cent. I don't see any panicking going on out there. Commodity prices are still firm."

BT's Mr Murray agreed. "There are going to be some good opportunities to buy back into the big resources stocks," he said.

 

[dutchie]

With very limited experience and with no statistical evidence I predict:

That like lemmings the Aussie market will react to the DOW's further fall on Friday. The markets will fall 50-60c Monday morning, flatten out over lunch and make a small gain in the afternoon as bargain hunters make money from the panickers.

There must be some stocks out there that are already a bargain buy - Monday may make them even more attractive. Experienced traders only - newbies (like me) stay clear!

Hope this week is better for everyone.

 

[chicken]

Markmaru...I hope you are right but I feel the brokers are going to give it all on monday..that drop in the dow will be the impitus..I predict another $10 billion of the ASX .....but I hope you will be right..I see RED INK.....

 

[el_ninj0]

Markmaru...I hope you are right but I feel the brokers are going to give it all on monday..that drop in the dow will be the impitus..I predict another $10 billion of the ASX .....but I hope you will be right..I see RED INK.....

I agree chicken, I think it'll get close to 100 point off the XAO today.

 

[markrmau]

xjo down 45-55 intraday, rebounding to finish down 20-30.

 

[el_ninj0]

xjo down 45-55 intraday, rebounding to finish down 20-30.

There is a significant pre Market Depth drop going on at the moment. We are heading for alot more than 50 thats for sure. MBL and RIO already dropped 4-6% each off their last price on friday.

This will be one of the worst days we have had yet I think.

 

[el_ninj0]

I should probably also mention that:

BHP 17.330 14.440 16.660 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2,197,956

Market Depth showing that it will fall to around 15-15.50 on open.

MBL 44.600 42.000 44.270 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 238,136

and

RIO 44.000 38.000 43.110 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 589,066

CBA and SUN seem to be the only banks holding up ok in the pre open figures.

Time will tell....