CY2025 XAO Prediction competition

[frugal.rock]

Same again, but a little different.
Choose a number which will result into a band or bracket of 33 points. XX00-XX33, XX34-XX66, XX67-XX99.
If it all ends in a decimal, it gets rounded.

I'm going with 9050, so my bracket is falling within 9034 to 9066.
"hopefully the bourse continues".
Don't forget your 4 or 5 word spiel.

Entries close on 26th January 2025.
If it's a profitable year, prize is $100 donated on your behalf to the ASF legal fund, unless a sponsor wants to come on board with extra.

 

[Sean K]

I just watched a @ducati916 youtube and the guy was saying there's going to be a crash worse than 2008, so I'm going for 5000.

 

[divs4ever]

I just watched a @ducati916 youtube and the guy was saying there's going to be a crash worse than 2008, so I'm going for 5000.

i watched that vid. as well , and am thinking 'runaway inflation' ( melt-up ) ( complete irrationality )

so put me down for 12500 ( you can't let ALL the banksters pay for their crazy gambles , they will prop up the mega-caps )

 

[Smurf1976]

8726 - with a lot of volatility

I'm thinking some of the economic chickens come home to roost, so a substantial decline occurs, but that'll be promptly met with another round of inflation.

 

[qldfrog]

Put me in at 9000.
"Crash but hyperinflation" helped by aud fall propping the big mining boys here and fangs in the us market pushing our own.

 

[Knobby22]

Same again, but a little different.
Choose a number which will result into a band or bracket of 33 points. XX00-XX33, XX34-XX66, XX67-XX99.
If it all ends in a decimal, it gets rounded.

I'm going with 9050, so my bracket is falling within 9034 to 9066.
"hopefully the bourse continues".
Don't forget your 4 or 5 word spiel.

Entries close on 26th January 2025.
If it's a profitable year, prize is $100 donated on your behalf to the ASF legal fund, unless a sponsor wants to come on board with extra.

I greatly respect your opinion frugal as you are usually pretty close and I am usually pretty positive but I am really concerned that the share maket will act a bit crazily this coming year. First going up, then down then up but maybe not in time to save the year.
So I am going for a down year. 7600

 

[Dona Ferentes]

markets can put on 8 percent pa on average.


I have no idea what the consequences of world events or market conniptions will be, but from 8420, we get 9093.

Let's see how wrong I can be.
... and thanks FR for an innovative approach.

 

[macca]

In keeping with tradition I failed miserably this year but I do think Trump will keep the USA up so we won't sink too far.

I think I will call on some Asian luck and say 8888

 

[peter2]

8777 - Persistent inflation, slow growth. That gives me 8761 - 8794.

 

[farmerge]

With a stab in the dark and absolutely no assistance from "the Bloke in the Mirror' I will have a hit at 8550.

 

[frugal.rock]

Current scenario.
Will add the witticisms at some other stage.
Don't expect any fancy running charts either, unless @debtfree clues me in on his method- then perhaps something will happen sooner rather than later, or never...!


So, it looks like the frog and DF are my neighbours!

User	Chosen #	Band Lower	Band Upper
Sean K	5000	5000	5033
Knobby22	7600	7600	7633
farmerge	8550	8534	8566
Smurf	8726	8700	8733
peter2	8777	8767	8799
macca	8888	8867	8889
qldfrog	9000	9000	9033
frugal.rock	9050	9034	9066
Dona Ferentes	9093	9067	9099
divs4ever	12500	12500	12533

 

[frugal.rock]

I should probably point out now, by picking a number, you are really choosing a band spread of about 33 points, but these bands are pre-set.
If you choose a number inside an already taken band, you will be asked to choose another band.
Hopefully its not too confusing and the table above clears things up, but its working ok so far without any clashes.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I should probably point out now, by picking a number, you are really choosing a band spread of about 33 points, but these bands are pre-set.
If you choose a number inside an already taken band, you will be asked to choose another band.
Hopefully its not too confusing and the table above clears things up, but its working ok so far without any clashes.

good choice of range,... & encourages early participation

 

[Faramir]

8945
Why?
Don’t know.

Who were my neighbours last year? Hopefully I was a good neighbour. Hope that I can be a good neighbour again this year.

Even if there’s a big drop, things always rise again by December. So I think it may look like a modest rise but it will be volatile in the middle. Only a very wild guess.

 

[TimeISmoney]

I'm saying 9133, my guess is the markets will drop a bit due to bad economic news and then kick-started again by China's slow working stimulus package.

 

[wayneL]

Once again I pull out my crystal ball for a bit of soothsaying. I think a major correction followed by a recovery later in the year, the ASX to underperform compared to America.

I say 8178.74 "plucked straight out of my @55"

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Same as last year for me please.

10946 :

Fibonacci

Floccinaucinihilipilification

Antidisestablishmentarianism

honorificabilitudinitatibus

sesquipedalianism

gg

 

[frugal.rock]

Update.
Have i got everyone so far?

User	Chosen XAO #	Band Lower	Band Upper
Sean K	5000	5000	5033
Knobby22	7600	7600	7633
wayneL	8178.74	8167	8200
farmerge	8550	8534	8566
Smurf	8726	8700	8733
peter2	8777	8767	8799
macca	8888	8867	8899
Faramir	8945	8934	8966
qldfrog	9000	9000	9033
frugal.rock	9050	9034	9066
Dona Ferentes	9093	9067	9099
TimeISmoney	9133	9100	9133
Garpal Gumnut	10946	10934	10966
divs4ever	12500	12500	12533

Macca band upper corrected. (say that quickly...)

 

[Ferret]

7920. We are due a down year and a trade war should ensure it.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So @divs4ever takes my 2024 spot with the highest guess so far. All good fortune to you Divsie.

gg