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CWY - Cleanaway Waste Management

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Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries



SP has taken a hit the last couple of weeks. High 3's and now $2.50. I got greedy on this one - nice profit now gone.

I put the slump in share price down to 3 things:
  • No news from the company recently - market treating no news as bad news
  • Market still hates debt - even more so for the reasons you mention above
  • TPI appears to attract short selling. Seems to average around 35-40% of shares traded each day and with relatively low volumes of shares traded can generated some panic selling.

These things on the back of talk of capital raising, falling demand for recycled material, drop in oil prices and likely fall in truck sales just makes it worse.

With all this I still hold (nervously). All these rate cuts should be offsetting some of the pain and hopefully past acquisition are starting to show some rewards.

Nice to see JPMorgan buying in.

A nervous wait to 25th Feb Half Yr.

Thrive
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Three good days' trading on rising volume and the SP back up to $2-80.
I'll have a closer look next week.

 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

oldblue said:
Three good days' trading on rising volume and the SP back up to $2-80.
I'll have a closer look next week.

Click to expand...

Lucky you waited oldblue.

My nervous wait has come to an early end, unfortunately the announcement today was not what I wanted to hear and the market reaction even worse.

Amongst other things they blame higher interest costs in the second half - this was one area I thought would not be a problem - I thought only 300m odd was in USD, are their other loans also USD?

The one off losses whilst high are at least one off and interest from large investors could be a positive.

Today looked like a short sellers dream backed up by some panic selling. What will tomorrow bring? Hopefully some buying to reflect selling being over done.

NPBT of $93m less the $46m brings NPBT to $47m for the half. Assuming second half achieves somewhere near the $93m without any further one offs will see annual NPBT of $140 and a PE on today's price of 4. Market cap now down to $566m. Probably got these numbers wrong.

TPI need some more large investors for SP stability otherwise if they are forced to raise capital the SP is going to look very ordinary.

These figures and comments are based on my own thoughts and calculations and may not be accurate.

Still holding - yipeee.

Thirve
Unhappy TPI investor
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Very dangerous place to put $, in my opinion. Look at current assit Vs Current liability
Look at non current asset(mainly goodwill) vs non current liability.

Big borrowings it would take approx 8-10 years to repay it!?

looks like they were expanding using debt. I think market is not going like it
I am no buying. May be placing put
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Yes, I've backed off too.

Not a good proposition at the moment when there are so many other enticing ( attractive?) alternatives.

 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

OLDBLUE what stock do you follow?

trading holt for TPI!? I think after trading hold end we see it going Down
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

AFR article on the weekend speculating that a $800m raising @ $1.50 inc right issue and placement to PE is imminent.

based at this price, debt/equity would drop to 51%, interest cover to double to 5 times, 2010 PE of 7.3 times.

Also TPI benefiting from government exclusion of legacy waste from Carbon Pollution Reductio Scheme.

The amount of time this has taken is a concern for TPI. With funding hard to come by at present, we can only assume that TPI is not in the driver's seat in this negotiation.

Can't see how the rights issue would be at $1.50 though. I reckon it'll be a lot lower. The sp would surely have fallen below $1.50 by now if it had been trading.
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

anyone still following this one ? equity raising at 1.20 by the looks ?

is this one worth bottom picking, or just heading all the way down i wonder


jonny
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

I, as a shareholder, will be entitled to 1.77 new share for 1 existing share at $1.20. I still like Mr. Peabody and he and his family are going to participate fully. IMHO I think there is a decent future for TPI (not next month, etc, but in 2 years time). I'll be taking my entitlement.
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

i was having a look at some, but would have to use all my own cash
which im not too keen on. Ive noticed that no one seems to be offering
them on a margin loan leverage anymore, probably fair at present
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Two brokers with valuations out there at 60-80c for TPI.

Seems the current share price is overvalued by their recommendations.

I think waste collection is not recession proof, but more a nice to have during econmic downturns. Hence I have chosen to not own any shares in TPI.
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Does anyone have any news or opinions on this stock at the moment. It's too damn silent for my liking...
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

I am liking this stock at the moment, anyone want to do some analysis?
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

been a good 18months since discussion on this stock, now trading at just
above its year low at 51.5 cents. interested in any other opinions on this stock

j c
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

jonnycage said:
been a good 18months since discussion on this stock, now trading at just
above its year low at 51.5 cents. interested in any other opinions on this stock

j c
Click to expand...

I wouldn't touch it unless you want to gamble. The price is swayed by the private equity investors/owners in the business who want to hype the stock up to provide returns.

The company however continues to erode shareholder wealth, has high debt levels and issues more shares to dilute your holding. Current intrinsic value if you subscribe to such thing is around $0.13 per share so to buy at any of the current prices is paying about a 600% premium for a very risky stock.

Give it a few years once they have paid down their debt if the company continues to perform but chances are it will still be overpriced.
 
Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

There's a very small inverted H&S pattern within a very large inverted H&S.

The small one has broken to the upside today, and could take it to 82-83. The large one is moving towards breakout and if the approach is strong, could go 88++ (a while off yet). If/when the price moves into the blue box, could get interesting.
 

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Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Last few upside pivot breaks have been strong. Hoping for a repeat performance.
 

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Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Looming resistance always draws the price towards it.

So shouldn't have any trouble reaching 90-92 from here.
 
On February 1st, 2016, Transpacific Industries Group Limited (TPI) changed its name and ASX code to Cleanaway Waste Management Limited (CWY).
 
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