CWY - Cleanaway Waste Management

[hypnotic]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Sorry i didn't know about that......
That makes it really interesting then. why would you buy so much stake if you don't believe in the value and future growth company???

Sounds like a positive thing right?

Hypnotic

 

[Dutchy3]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Hi Everyone

I'll bite ... reasonable happy with the weekly trend on this one and the short term weakness since June ish could soon prove to be a nice way to compound some capital ... waiting for a signal

 

[Chief Wigam]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Nice chart Dutchy.

The GMMA was quite useful for me when I was trading the uptrend.

Unfortunately held on too long and gave away a fair amount of profit.

I still think this will test recent lows in Aug and Sep.

I'd like to see the averages converge first before buying in. At least that is what Guppy teaches.

 

[Chief Wigam]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Anyone still looking at this one?
I would think this industry will see investors flock to it, as there will always be waste generated and therefore needing processing, regardless of whether there is a recession in the US and slows growth elsewhere.

 

[nikkothescorpio]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

With the trend now being to hammer any company with an above average level of debit on its books - does anyone think that TPI could be one of the next ones up on the chopping block?

I hold myself but am beginning to feel that I need to tighten my stops up on it as its sliding and might pull an Allco or MFS anytime soon.

 

[Chief Wigam]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Cannot see it is going to go down much further. TPI is making lots of money. They have recently confirmed profit guidance.

Brokers have their valuations still around and above $13.

They will do well since their operations are all in Oz and whilst business is doing well, waste will be produced.

TPI also have Nationwide Oil, which sells recycled oil which can be blended into diesel. Raw material is free for them as they have truck collection service which picks up the waste oil from around the country. The price they sell it at follows the oil price. This business was profitable 6-10 years back when the price of oil was low, so imagine what it is making now.

 

[alicemaude]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

I have been watching this one for some time and have held it in the past (made a small amount out of it) but I think that it should have a good future as it is a growing product and as councils want increased recycling etc there may be a good chance for growth. The price at the moment is looking good (but that is just my thoughts so do your own research as I am often wrong).

 

[subaru69]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Once again the scent has gone cold on a stock...could it be that no-one wants to talk when their investment has plummeted. :flush:

Well here's some good news. :band

TPI up 28% from it's bottom of $6. :bounce:

I'm not going to pretend I was smart/lucky enough to buy there but there does seem to be further upside.

If there are any FA/TA individuals who would like to comment, it would be much appreciated.:bowdown:

 

[Gundini]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

TPI at $1.90.

Has a big debt!

But people create rubbish.

What, nobody throwing rubbish out anymore?

 

[Chief Wigam]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

They keep talking about further acquisitions.

Probably good in that they could pick up co's fairly cheaply at this time, but market obviously thinks they have to much debt already.

 

[Gundini]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Yes, but the sales are on!

Surely the lower fuel price must help them.

Don't know about you, but I have a s--- load of garbage to clear!

 

[Gundini]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Had to lock in profit for this one today.

Up 15% on no news

Will wait for another pullback to re-enter.

Seems to be very volitile this stock, can't imagine it can sustain such a fast pace!

 

[skc]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

TPI at $1.90.

Has a big debt!

But people create rubbish.

What, nobody throwing rubbish out anymore?

Applying the same logic...

ABC Learning at 50c.

Has a big debt!

But people have kids.

What, nobody having kids in childcare anymore?

 

[michael_selway]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

TPI at $1.90.

Has a big debt!

But people create rubbish.

What, nobody throwing rubbish out anymore?

Hm but there is no growth in "rubbish"? peopel have more garbage to throw out in future?

Also do you know how much debt they have? Articles in BRW and AFR this week listing stocks with lowest interest cover (i heard)...

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 58.4 64.5 73.0 81.1
DPS 18.1 19.7 22.5 25.1

thx

MS

 

[prawn_86]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Had to lock in profit for this one today.

Up 15% on no news

Will wait for another pullback to re-enter.

Seems to be very volitile this stock, can't imagine it can sustain such a fast pace!

Kept going up today. I wonder why. Profits a profit still well done Gundini, what was your criteria for exit?

 

[Gundini]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Kept going up today. I wonder why. Profits a profit still well done Gundini, what was your criteria for exit?

Not really sure why it is going up, prehaps interest rates in a heavy decline takes the heat off their enormous debt.

As for the exit stratergy, simple really. 20% profit in 3 days was worth locking in. Also, this was one of my first purchases in 15 months, and still a little tentitive and unsure. The debt worries me alot but the stock came off so hard it was worth a trade imo. 40% + growth rate in all major indicators made it enticing!

In hindsight I should have held the stock, but happy with my profit.

 

[Thrive]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

TPI debt:

$0.7b maturing in Dec 2009 (1 year out)
$1.4b maturing in Dec 2010 (2 years out)
$0.5b maturing in 2014 and beyond

Large debt can be good and bad?

Bad - Only recently due to banks less willing to rollover maturing debt, however is this only the case with businesses either directly exposed to the crisis, likely to see less demand for their product or profit forecasts being downgraded.

TPI is not impacted by any of these, so assuming banks have funding available which I believe the deposit guarantee is helping raise funds offshore I believe this wont be an issue for TPI.

Good - Rates have plummeted 3% odd recently, assuming TPI's 2.1b debt maturing in the next 2 years is on a floating rate their interest cost most likely fell by $50m+ pa.

TPI's net profit is running around $175m to benefit $930m (19%) in shareholder capital. Assume TPI replaced its debt with shareholder capital this would increase net profit to around $300m to the benefit of $3.5b in shareholder capital (9%). I hope they gradually reduce debt from profit rather than raise capital to do it. Capital gains will give us the returns we want.

I hope they stay in regular contact with their banks to ensure rollover wont be an issue - which I'm confident their doing.

I think investors are staying away from TPI for debt reasons only, so should debt concerns reduce or disappear TPI sp will quickly return IMO.

TPI is hungry for growth and with some businesses looking cheap I have no doubt that if they can get their sp back up over $5 they will pounce on competitors with a takeover using script. This could be good assuming they target the right companies.

The only bad news I see from a profit outlook is truck purchases are likely to be well down (hopefully offset by spare parts sales) and the price of oil has dropped impacting the energy division.

TPI sp has much further to go IMO.

Debt information was obtained from TPI's November 08 AGM presentation so I assume that is all. This post is my thoughts only please do not rely on it for its accuracy.

Disclaimer - I own TPI shares.

Thrive

 

[babka]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Thrive,
thanks for your post - very informative. I share your opinion and too believe in TPI further growth and prosperity. I own TPI shares, albeit not too many. Will buy more very soon.

 

[oldblue]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Thrive, you make a good point.
It's very easy to overdo the negative aspect of debt in today's circumstances and to conclude that financiers want all debt repaid as soon as it falls due. Banks need to continue to lend to creditworthy borrowers if they are to stay in business and make profits.
I'll be having a closer look at TPI.

 

[oldblue]

Re: TPI - Transpacific Industries

Any particular reason why the TPI SP should be down 9% today?
My own guess is the market getting unnerved by capital raisings at big discounts, eg today's SUN announcement, and fears that TPI may need to do something similar.

I have it on my watchlist but waiting to see developments.