CWY - Cleanaway Waste Management

[sptrawler]

$30m recycling plant to be built in Albury.
Pact Group chief executive Sanjay Dayal said the company had signed a memorandum of understanding with Asahi Beverages and Cleanaway Waste Management to jointly develop the facility. The NSW government will also provide a grant.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...ecycling-plant-in-albury-20200219-p5429j.html
From the article:
Asahi Beverages' group chief executive Robert Iervasi said "this venture will allow us to utilise Australian-sourced recycled plastic resins to assist in meeting our sustainability commitment to transition our portfolio to recycled plastics".

Australia's waste industry has been in crisis since 2018, when China banned 24 types of waste and implemented tough restrictions on the amount of contamination allowed in waste imports. Last year Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a ban on the export of waste plastic from Australia.

 

[Trav.]

Article about CWY - https://smallcaps.com.au/cleanaway-waste-management-boosts-revenue-commodity-price-environment/

I think the 20% SP rise is a bit over done and will retrace more next week, gaps up shown below.

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting that the emphasis on recycling separation, is starting to get serious, a friend who works in council waste management said they are starting to inspect peoples bins for compliance.
I guess now we can't just send it all overseas, it just has to be fixed, cost will be a secondary issue. IMO
https://au.news.yahoo.com/more-councils-see-recycling-overhaul-with-new-purple-bin-031710761.html

 

[sptrawler]

Article about CWY - https://smallcaps.com.au/cleanaway-waste-management-boosts-revenue-commodity-price-environment/

I think the 20% SP rise is a bit over done and will retrace more next week, gaps up shown below.

View attachment 100655

Yes Trav, i think there is always overshoots, both ways, one has to guess what the long term trend will be or get really good at charting.

 

[Trav.]

@sptrawler I am looking at short term trading so I am trying to capitalise on a couple of short trades at the moment.

Long term you could be on the money as overshoots will always happen, and you just ride them out if you believe in the company.

 

[sptrawler]

@sptrawler I am looking at short term trading so I am trying to capitalise on a couple of short trades at the moment.

Long term you could be on the money as overshoots will always happen, and you just ride them out if you believe in the company.

Yes I try to time the longer runs, rather than in and out.
With Cleanaway, I was never a fan of them due to the high labour and machinery content, for what in reality was picking up what nobody wanted.
But with China and Asia generally refusing to take our recycling, IMO that has put a different light on it, it is legislated that we have to process it and in reality Cleanaway has the market cornered so to speak.
So for a period of time, they will be the goto company for the councils to sort the problem, how long that lasts is the $64m question, but I wont be a holder for the extreme long run.
As IMO there will be problems for the marketing of the recyled product, and someone will be responsible to get rid of it, that could end up being CWY?
So hopefully I get a few divies, a bit of CG and then it will be looking for the next boat.

 

[sptrawler]

Article about CWY - https://smallcaps.com.au/cleanaway-waste-management-boosts-revenue-commodity-price-environment/

I think the 20% SP rise is a bit over done and will retrace more next week, gaps up shown below.

View attachment 100655

Good call Trav down again today, you have to keep a sense of humour.

 

[Trav.]

I actually think that it has held up pretty good considering the overall market is down. I have made a few bucks on this one but have closed my positions @ $2.23 so she can go up !!

 

[sptrawler]

I actually think that it has held up pretty good considering the overall market is down. I have made a few bucks on this one but have closed my positions @ $2.23 so she can go up !!

Yes it isn't dependent on the World market, for its income, I think the Australia centric shares will hold better than those with overseas income exposure.

 

[sptrawler]

This is the whole issue with the myriad of issues, relating to climate change and waste management, once the Government sets the agenda in most cases the tax payer is locked and loaded to pay for it.

Well that didn't take long.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...te-could-hit-hip-pockets-20200226-p544ma.html
From the article:
The Australian Industry Group’s Victorian boss, Tim Piper, said the higher landfill levy would raise costs for businesses at a difficult time.

“While industry supports the goals of reducing waste and developing the capacity to recycle much more than we do presently, the additional levy costs being imposed on consumers and industry are significant,” he said.

Mr Piper said he would be surprised if ratepayers did not pay more for household bin collections due to the levy increase.


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He welcomed extra money announced to help businesses enhance recycling and to educate consumers about improving waste practices but insisted more money should come from the increased landfill levy.

I do hold

 

[sptrawler]

Cleanaway give a earnings guidance.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200324/pdf/44gbgyjmvnq7cr.pdf

I do hold and have been adding.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Cleanaway gives earnings guidance.

the company will be one of only a few to do that, I suspect.

some companies now have no revenue, so how are earnings going to appear? Travel, entertainment, hospitality industries.

 

[sptrawler]

the company will be one of only a few to do that, I suspect.

some companies now have no revenue, so how are earnings going to appear? Travel, entertainment, hospitality industries.

I have started adding to some of my holdings, that I feel will be coming out of the other end of this situation, there are a lot that have been dragged down by stampede. Trying to stick to those companies that don't rely on consumer spending.
Just my opinion, in for a penny and all that.

 

[sptrawler]

The tonnage should increase as more people stay home, so cleanaway's business in theory should also increase.

 

[qldfrog]

The tonnage should increase as more people stay home, so cleanaway's business in theory should also increase.

hum less money means less buying, less crap in less crap out; I would expect overall tonnage to diminish, less takeway would reduce waste volume significantly as well
And councils may become tighter as they may have to stop raising rates the way they did in the last 20y

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And councils may become tighter as they may have to stop raising rates the way they did in the last 20y

councils offering (one-off) rate reductions. Mine, at least

hum less money means less buying, less crap in less crap out; I would expect overall tonnage to diminish, less takeway would reduce waste volume significantly as well

in the short term, definitely

CBA CEO Matt Comyn has warned of a 10 per cent contraction in the economy in the March quarter, as Australia weathers a “substantial demand shock” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Mr Comyn said he had revised down his expectations from a week ago, when he expected a 5 per cent or 6 per cent slump in output, given the notable decline the nation’s largest retail bank was seeing in transaction data. “There is no question there is going to be a substantial demand shock, and you’ve seen that particularly across a number of different sectors,” he said...

 

[aus_trader]

hum less money means less buying, less crap in less crap out; I would expect overall tonnage to diminish, less takeway would reduce waste volume significantly as well
And councils may become tighter as they may have to stop raising rates the way they did in the last 20y

I don't think the domestic waste volume will decrease. It might actually increase if adults and kids are staying home for some time disposing of all that packaging...

However if a lot of small business stay closed for a while, they may cancel that regular dumpster pickup...

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Cleanaway give a earnings guidance.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200324/pdf/44gbgyjmvnq7cr.pdf

I do hold and have been adding.

of course, on 24 March, earnings guidance was suspended, citing Covid-19 related issues, especially in the SME sector.

The outlook was generally positive:

Cleanaway provides a range of essential services to a diverse customer base which includes municipal councils, government infrastructure, hospitals, resources, manufacturing, commercial and industrial customers. We have not observed any decline in overall trading in any of our operating segments to date. However, as the COVID-19 situation evolves and uncertainty increases, we expect the SME part of our C&I waste volumes to be impacted. At this stage, we expect the demand for other services, such as health, municipal collections and related post-collections services to remain strong.

 

[sptrawler]

of course, on 24 March, earnings guidance was suspended, citing Covid-19 related issues, especially in the SME sector.

The outlook was generally positive:

Yes I am happy enough sticking with them, they are currently one of the solid performers in my portfolio, but anything can happen. I still believe their business will increase as the councils look to outsource their waste management headache.
Just my opinion I do hold.

 

[sptrawler]

The tonnage should increase as more people stay home, so cleanaway's business in theory should also increase.

Just have to see if increased tonnage = increased earnings?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...s-household-waste-spikes-20200428-p54nyt.html