CWN - Crown Resorts

[Garpal Gumnut]

IMHO take the money and sell now. @ 14.00 there's only 0.75 upside and price can fall 3.00 if the deal doesn't go through. Of course it all depends on Packer who holds 46%. You can always hope that this bid attracts other bids (?). Other bidders may have a better chance of FIRB approval.

There's some chance that the FIRB will knock this on the head. CEO of Wynns (close friend of Packer has had his issues in the US). Casino license approvals can take months as there's many investigations to complete (est 6 mths min). If this does get all the approvals, you end up with Wynns US shares. The palfrey divs are in US dollars and may cost just as much to convert to AUD.

I have had Crown shares since Pbl > CPH > Nine Network >FXF > Bond Media ... oh cripes where did i get them from.....????
The main thing I know is that for the last 20 years I have gotten a check for $19.06 (or thereabouts) every six months. and thats it !!!
if there was any advantage in holding them its been to get priority for the Bonds issues.
the biggest advantage is being a Packer and changeing the company every few years..

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/crown-resorts-becomes-10b-takeover-target

CWN up 20% to $14.10 following the news. I suspect this deal may go ahead, although I'm not sure how happy CWN shareholders will be about it.

IMHO take the money and sell now. @ 14.00 there's only 0.75 upside and price can fall 3.00 if the deal doesn't go through. Of course it all depends on Packer who holds 46%. You can always hope that this bid attracts other bids (?). Other bidders may have a better chance of FIRB approval.

There's some chance that the FIRB will knock this on the head. CEO of Wynns (close friend of Packer has had his issues in the US). Casino license approvals can take months as there's many investigations to complete (est 6 mths min). If this does get all the approvals, you end up with Wynns US shares. The palfrey divs are in US dollars and may cost just as much to convert to AUD.

A concern for me would be holding Wynn shares, and how to manage their sale as I don't hold foreign shares as I don't trust forners.

Chart wise they seem to have risen from the dead in the past week.

gg

 

[JTLP]

Wynn have terminated discussions. Suspect down she goes!

 

[Knobby22]

Wynn have terminated discussions. Suspect down she goes!

Yea, fun for day traders.
I wouldn't be happy if I bought yesterday, risky things these rumours.

 

[peter2]

This is scandalous. Will the ASX market regulator ask some questions?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I must admit I was half asleep at the wheel in the Arnage on a long trip back from way down in the southern part of Australia at Noosa Heads yesterday.

I did not realise the bid was made for CWN by WYN. I would/should have sold, but admit I would have bought back in again today.

CWN has it all for making money, footballers with runny noses, cricketers and models with runny noses and instagram stars with runny noses, singers with runnny noses, actors and actrirs with runny noses, all self treating their runny noses with lines of a white substance along the Yarra, and whatever that river is in WA, before hitting the tables, pokies, each other and the bed to entice more tourists to a gold mine which is my holding in CWN.

I'm quite sure Wynn is the same. Once they've tasted CWN I'm quite sure they will not be able to resist the lax political and legislative atmosphere that is gambling in Australia.

At $12.80 it's at a fair price for buyers and sellers today.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Reason given by Wynn for pulling out was disclosure at Australian end of offer/negotiations contrary to agreement.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

Well as the mist clears, light begins to shine on things.

https://www.smh.com.au/please-explain/crown-unmasked-inside-the-investigation-20190731-p52ci0.html

From the article:
The Sydney Morning Herald and 60 Minutes has this week exposed Crown involvement in money laundering, facilitation of Chinese espionage, links to people traffickers and prostitution, and failures in Crown’s corporate governance.

It also exposed an network of links to underworld figures and serious criminal enterprises .

How lucky was Packer and Wynn to dodge that bullet?

Great pick by peter2 in post #80

 

[basilio]

Ok so Crown Casino is used by money launderers both corporate crooks and run of the mill crims and facilitated by governments who get their take through taxes.

I just can't say I am surprised by this. This is an essential element of successful casinos. Many of the high rollers are turning black into white. Everybody knows...

The interesting question will be how these inconvenient truths are ignored in the name of "profits" "jobs" "government taxes" and jobs for the boys.

 

[sptrawler]

Sounds like things just got murky for Packer, life wasn't meant to be easy.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...own-sale-just-got-bigger-20190829-p52lxm.html
From the article:
There is a lot at stake for Ho and Packer.
If this deal unravels Ho will be left holding 10 per cent of Crown and no board seat - a stranded investment whose value has already fallen since he acquired it a few months ago.

Packer, in the meantime, has to sweat it out. If Ho chooses to abandon Crown, Packer will need to go back to the drawing board to find a new buyer to take his stake .

 

[Dona Ferentes]

James Packer holds about 35 per cent of the listed Crown, thanks to the collapse of his deal with Hong Kong billionaire, close friend and former business partner Lawrence Ho, who was supposed to buy almost 20 per cent of Crown in a deal that was eventually scaled back to 10 per cent.

At the end of November, Packer’s 237.03 million Crown shares were worth about $3.2bn as the stock traded at $13.18. But since then Crown shares have dropped like a stone to trade down at $8.88. Packer’s stake is now valued at $2.1bn.

 

[basilio]

Just got me thinking..
At what stage are places like Crown Casino closed because of the risk of spreading the corona virus? It would be interesting to hear how China has managed to slow the spread of the disease and how many public events have been closed.

Of course it wouldn't just be Crown would it ? Pubs, discos, theaters, practically everything.

 

[bigdog]

ASX announcement 16/03/2020 9:56:28 AM Response to Covid-19

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Meanwhile, work on the $2.3bill Barangaroo shard seems to have slowed. Been stuck just below the tree placement (70 storeys) since Dec.

 

[basilio]

I am so surprised at health authorities allowing Crown and similar large poker venues to stay open. On a simple practical point, people are touching the same buttons on machines all the time. That is likely to be a significant vector to transfer viruses.

Also the distances between people to mimimise transmission of the disease are as follows

Close contact

A close contact is someone who has been face to face for at least 15 minutes, or been in the same closed space for at least 2 hours, as someone who has tested positive for the COVID-19 when that person was infectious.

I would have thought the risks of a large number of people playing the pokies in the same room would be obvious.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/novel-coronavirus-close-contact.aspx

 

[jbocker]

I am so surprised at health authorities allowing Crown and similar large poker venues to stay open. On a simple practical point, people are touching the same buttons on machines all the time. That is likely to be a significant vector to transfer viruses.

Also the distances between people to mimimise transmission of the disease are as follows

Close contact

A close contact is someone who has been face to face for at least 15 minutes, or been in the same closed space for at least 2 hours, as someone who has tested positive for the COVID-19 when that person was infectious.

I would have thought the risks of a large number of people playing the pokies in the same room would be obvious.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/novel-coronavirus-close-contact.aspx

And is hugely populated with the MOST vulnerable, people over 60. I was very surprised to read this and thought the same could be done in the sporting grandstands.

 

[So_Cynical]

Talking to some Star staff last week, they expected to be shutdown this week, a shutdown of all casinos is a certainly at some point over the next 3 months.

 

[Trav.]

Another stock that has an interesting path ahead of it, with things slowly returning to normal will the SP continue it's rise?

Some observations

- Small gap still to be filled
- Short term resistance @ $10.09
- Friday's red bar was a common theme so PB signal yesterday not a surprise
- No company update since 4/5 re - COVID-19

 

[Trav.]

And there you go, today CWN closed above the drawn short term resistance of $10.09.

Close $10.17 which was also the High, so looking good for continuing up and not worrying about the gap it has left behind.

 

[So_Cynical]

This FY with the last 4 months of COVID shutdown its doubtful Crown will even turn a profit, Next FY also doubtful,
so a 50/50 likelihood of no dividends for the next year and a half maybe - and the SP is going to keep going up?

I think we are in for some post GFC type sideways movement for many many stocks.

 

[Trav.]

and the SP is going to keep going up?

I think we are talking to different time frames. I am looking at daily charts as per previous post which has nothing to do with FY profit targets or even dividend payments.

You are probably right about post GFC type sideways movement but as for now on the day to day SP movements a number of stocks are recovering pretty quickly, which is creating good opportunities for traders.