CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[INORE]

anyone see the business section in the west australian newspaper today...it had a bit on CVN saying that Fat Prophets consider CVn a Hold...it says things like

'CVN's work in thai oilfields has exceeded even our most optimistic expectations'

'we continue to see further upside potential'

'we anticipate a continuation above 48c to new all time highs'

'fat prophets says cvn is worth around 77c a share'

 

[money maker]

certainly did inore

dont worry,sit and wait,news is just starting to flow , just like the oil is. People will jump on board soon enough.It just cant be ignored.

My perspective, am holding LONG term. This will be making me ALOT of money. Next results due out around 10 Nov (around then) on results from the other holes.

Just keep topping up on days like today and you are laughing.

 

[cgf]

'CVN's work in thai oilfields has exceeded even our most optimistic expectations'

'we continue to see further upside potential'

'we anticipate a continuation above 48c to new all time highs'

'fat prophets says cvn is worth around 77c a share'

Ive held CVN since 2002. The decision to get Ted Jacobson on board in late 2005 was the start of what will be a really bright future for shareholders. As Ted said at the AGM (last year) he sees more potential in CVN than he did at TAP oil, which for a guy with his massive oil experience is saying a hell of a lot. Looking at the scope of the 3D seismic work and Teds great understanding (of their ever increasing targets) there is great potential for this field to become very substantial.

Pressure data at various choke settings suggests the well is capable of production at rates much higher than 1,920 bopd.

I keep picking up stock because I really do feel "Fat Prophets" and "Hartleys" will be increasing their valuations of 70+cents to indicate the real future potential of CVN as they continue to increase reserves. Why anyone would be selling mystifies me especially considering their stunning success in 2007 with 6 more wells to come. They are also considering more rigs and at least 37 wells to be completed in 2008.

Success of the whole 2007 drill program continues to be just the start for CVN's future growth.
Well done CVN.

 

[resourcesman]

hi CGF, i was wondering what made you hold CVN for so long when it was going nowhere? were you sitting on a loss, or there was something fundamentally promising about the stock at the time?

 

[cgf]

hi CGF, i was wondering what made you hold CVN for so long when it was going nowhere? were you sitting on a loss, or there was something fundamentally promising about the stock at the time?

At the time the fundamentals of a small aussie oil exploration stock for next to nothing appealed. The reason I choose CVN was the promise of dumping what was a totally incompetent board and getting a team in there that could turn it around.

As it turned out I admit it took much longer than I originally thought it would take. But it was always going to be a long term stock that I locked into all our family members super fund holdings. Originally I bought them for next to nothing so the reality was I had little to loose, however its my long held belief that you don't invest in long term company "build ups" if you need the money (as they don't always work out).

All of which is why when you get a success story like CVN you reap extremely big rewards. The thing with CVN is they haven't even scratched the surface of the whats in Thailand (its got massive potential). Also doing exploration out of cashflow has (up to this point) been relatively slow, but thats not going to be an issue with 4000bopd++. With the already extremely low production costs (inc drilling costs of about US$500,000 per well) Ted has stated that although finding more oil is the big target they are working hard to improve all areas of operational costs. Gaining more knowledge of the areas geology is vital, which is why the new 3D seismic work is a big key to targeting "Well positions". Remember the L44G-D1 and L44-G Appraisal Wells where not targets based on the new 3D seismic work and flows are only from one of the zones in the producing wells. The AGM is coming up in late Nov so it will be exciting times for CVN to tell us about. I continue to pick up CVN stock (as finances allow) because they are well undervalued. The reserves will be the key to waking people up about how well CVN is traveling.

 

[resourcesman]

you are obviously very knowledgeable about CVN and its good to have on board someone who has kept track of its progress since years ago.... im 100% invested in this, but im looking to offload some soon (otherwise i wont have cash for my upcoming CVN-funded holiday!). I didn't realise that Ted made favourable comparisons for CVN above TAP, thanks for that.

They keep mentioning that they are producing out of only one zone. Would be interesting for someone to ask Ted in the AGM why they do not start testing out the other zones, because if one of those was oily, that could really put a rocket under the shareprice!

 

[INORE]

can anyone else see the 1000000 sell order that went thru at .485? but it says the low price today is at 49c....and i never saw 1000000 sells at .485c anyway... I use e-trade...does that explain anything???
yep its still there...perhaps its a cross trade...but i thought they only took place after the market closed...

was that u selling resourceman for your holiday? that will be some holiday at $485000.

 

[resourcesman]

hahaha Inore, I wish I had that many.... only have 190k shares... and just looking to sell 10k-20k of them..... i didn't see how many went thru, but i did see 48.5 at one point today

 

[cgf]

They keep mentioning that they are producing out of only one zone. Would be interesting for someone to ask Ted in the AGM why they do not start testing out the other zones, because if one of those was oily, that could really put a rocket under the shareprice!

I will be asking this at the AGM, but I imagine its to do with time/expense along with getting a better feeling for the geology of the target/success areas. At this build up of stage of the stock I guess its better to get them producing income than to delay things to test every zone. They pretty much clean up the hole during testing and put it straight into production which is great for instant cashflow.

Their costs are so negligible that at US$90 per barrel its amazing profit very quickly. Ted did say at the last AGM that the geology has been the tricky thing to get a handle on. Of course their strike rate is still running very good which means they are certainly getting a good handle on things.

Nothing wrong with a fully funded CVN holiday.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

can anyone else see the 1000000 sell order that went thru at .485? but it says the low price today is at 49c....and i never saw 1000000 sells at .485c anyway... I use e-trade...does that explain anything???
yep its still there...perhaps its a cross trade...but i thought they only took place after the market closed...

was that u selling resourceman for your holiday? that will be some holiday at $485000.

It was an off-market trade. Directly after it there was a small sell of about 20-25k shares but after that it went back up.

 

[wipz]

Jeez, how old are you guys, at 23 i can only afford 10,000
got 8,000 more today, so i am officially broke.

 

[cgf]

you are obviously very knowledgeable about CVN and its good to have on board someone who has kept track of its progress since years ago.... im 100% invested in this

CVN pre 2005 is not even close to the same company without boat anchors like Len.

can anyone else see the 1000000 sell order that went thru at .485?

The shares marked XT are off market transfers so ignore the pricing. I do XTs if I want it swapped between my super funds or family members.

 

[Rob 17]

Hi

I have been watching this stock for a while and bought in when the SP was 30 cents. I have kept topping up as the share price has reached .50cents. I did my own research and faith in the management and future prospects. I feel the CVN story has not reached people yet. Hopefully the next two results are postive than the stock will attract plenty of attention in my opinion. It is tightly held so if the fund managers like it, even better.

I have always found fellow posters info informative. I wish everyone all the best!

PS
I trade with comsec. I too saw the trade 1,000,000 at .485 (time 15.18.52)
The condition on comsec pro trader was XTOS

XT = crossed trade
OS = overseas

always do you own research ![/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
Robbie

 

[cgf]

More success with the 6 wells this year will only be topped by the reserve announcement. At .50c its very hard not to see the fund managers stepping in to gobble up CVN stock. If they can get some decent hits up to the north the stock will be in very high demand and priced accordingly. Meeting some stockholders at the AGM (some of whom have been in the oil game for as long as Ted) I asked the question of what made them buy CVN and the answer was always that Ted is such one of the best in the oil biz (a smart well respected operator) who will put CVN into another league.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Well, I'd like to see some big buyers step in today. There is no buying demand and it has been dumping since open.

 

[Rob 17]

Stock normally picks up a bit after lunch. I bought some more at .48. Nows not the time to get nervous.

It may come down a bit more if the Dow dips tomorrowbut Ill be sticking solid.

DYOR

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Nah, not nervous. Just waiting for a clear bottom and then upwards to buy more. Waiting on bigger buyers than me to soak up the selling pressure. I would rather buy on the way back up then try and pick the low.

 

[cgf]

Even though the US was up, the Oz market is down with only one of my stocks up. Still its very funny how so many investors think the skys falling and sell. I love these days as its my pickup time.

When the US housing fallout saw CVN fall in Aug I picked up a heap at 11.5c which was great because these people where just panicing and selling, while us long term guys loaded up. Day traders are like horse punters most have little idea on what they are investing in and so panic if anything changes.

Understanding all aspects of a company gives you the confidence about your investment. So many investors are speculators who are just jumping in and out of bed with the next moving stock. I prefer a good operation with a future not guesswork with no understanding of what you are buying into.

 

[Rob 17]

All things going well we should get an operations update on NS5-D1 & NS6-D1
soon.

DYOR................Do you own research

 

[wipz]

POE is going strong at $9.95, in my mind no reason why CVN should be sold down at this stage. NS5 and NS6 results expected later this week, will be topping up my holding while price is down.

POE Shares on issue 41,634,842 @ $9.95 gives market cap of roughly 410million. Vs CVN currently at 310mil. Seems reasonable considering the 60-40% interest in thailand JV.

Cheers