CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[jtb]

Flow results due out this week, looking for a nice upgrade. Going by previous flow results we saw an increase.

CVN curently have proven flow rates of 1400bpd, not bad going, and looks like more to come.

The chart indicates CVN has been in an upward trend since late Aug.

Hey STC,

Yeah >500 bpd net to CVN has been a while coming hasn't it.
Took some profit Friday as the 140 mil MC keeps me wary atm due to the last un-expected resource downgrade. (although MC seems to have little to do with things these days EGO etc)

I see the 3 mil bbl net value being bandied around again so soon we'll be back to where I originally bought in (waiting for the resource upgrade).

Once we get up to the 2000bpd value then the present program will become self funding and hopefully that will come soon as another placement would push us too close to a billion shares for my liking and the present drawdown won't leave a lot for any 'outside' diversification.

You still in WGP?
Big article in the paper today re: the ROC farm in off Perth.

 

[STEELPIG]

The sun rises in the east sets in the west and currently The winds are blowing very strongly from the North and it smells of Oil, lots of Oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

2twocents

 

[INORE]

The sun rises in the east sets in the west and currently The winds are blowing very strongly from the North and it smells of Oil, lots of Oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

2twocents

Hi steel Pig....do you know something that we dont steel pig? Please let us in on your little secret...

 

[wipz]

The sun rises in the east sets in the west and currently The winds are blowing very strongly from the North and it smells of Oil, lots of Oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

2twocents

hahaha nice one..... but IMO this has nothing to do with CVN
Correct me if im wrong, because i'd love to see this baby grow up and make me some $$

 

[Miner]

I did not buy CVN even though my friendly broker advised me that he was following CVN and it was time to buy at 13 cents.
A good broker when follows a share for 6 months means something.

Sorry can not name the broker in this instance but my advise was in confidence in writing. But not every time a written advise comes right.

I got broker's written (different broker) advise on MTS, ANG, INES, SRK, SIP - all went hell.

Regards

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've held CVN for many years hoping it will be another Woodside. I've contributed to all issues and am never surprised by its gyrations.

I enclose a weekly chart.

If it breaks its previous highs and goes beyond 30c then retraces to 28c I'd be surprised if it doesn't keep on going.

I enclose a weekly chart. Its moving up on higher volume and even the subprime drop was on relatively low volume.

Its not a stock for the fainthearted and on occasions I felt as if I were giving a donation to the board rather than buying issued shares.

Garpal

 

[INORE]

WOW any body seen this very good valuation by hartleys yet????


http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/Hartleys190907.pdf


Date
19 September 2007
ASX Code CVN
Share Price 21cps
Valuation 32-71cps
Market Cap (fully diluted)
$138.1m ($142.9m)
Issued Capital (fully diluted)
657.5m shares (680.54m)
Cash (as at 30 June 2007)
$8.9m
Management
Peter Leonhardt (Chairman)
Ted Jacobson (Managing Director)
Top Two Shareholders
ANZ Nominees Limited (6.0%)
Hamilton Capital Partners Ltd (2.3%)
Resources Analyst
Michael Robinson
Ph: +61 8 9268 2826
michael_robinson@hartleys.com.au
Resources Analyst
Andrew Muir
Ph: +61 8 9268 3045
andrew_muir@hartleys.com.au
Carnarvon Petroleum Limited (“CVN”, “Carnarvon”, “Company”) has
continued to experience a high success rate in the development of the Na
Sanun East field in Thailand (CVN 40%) through its JV with Pan Orient
Energy (operator). The JV is enjoying a better than 50% commercial
success rate, which is significantly higher than initial expectations of a
33%. This moves the Company to the verge of self-funding status,
expected to be achieved in Q4 CY2007. The Na Sanun East field has
emerged as the JV’s most significant producer and is set to underpin the
Company’s success in coming years.
A recent site-visit highlighted that the JV’s Phetchabun Basin fields are
well located, being very close to transport and other infrastructure. The
operator is developing the field in an efficient manner to boost production
and minimise costs.
We reaffirm our view that CVN is significantly undervalued based on our
32-71cps valuation range, and believe that the Company will be re-rated
as it achieves self-funding status and expands its development, appraisal
and exploration activities. We rate Carnarvon Petroleum Limited as a
Speculative Buy.
Investment Highlights
• Na Sanun and Na Sanun East Success Continues – Carnarvon
has improved overall production from some 50bopd in 2006 to
current levels of ~1,400bopd from four fields in the Phetchabun
Basin, largely through successful drilling in the Na Sanun East field.
• Currently Testing Potential for Additional 1,000bopd –
Carnarvon is in the process of flow testing three wells in the Na
Sanun East field that are expected to deliver an additional
1,000bopd, essentially taking the Company to the point at which
ongoing drilling becomes self-funding.
• Ongoing Success Can Deliver Re-rating – CVN is on the cusp of
becoming a self funding producer. This will enable the Company to
expand its exploration and appraisal efforts from its own cashflow.
This is an important step in the development of the Company and we
believe that, in this context, CVN will be re-rated.
• Site Visit Confirms Strength of Operations – A recent site visit has
highlighted that the operator has developed optimized production and
haulage systems which will ensure that maximum value is attained
from the field.
• Bo Rang and Si Thep Exploration Upside – The JV has developed
significant drilling targets in the Bo Rang and Si Thep fields. These
fields have many similarities with the Na Sanun field, making them an
important part of the Company’s exploration upside.
• Valuation Updated To 32 – 71cps – We have updated our valuation
range for CVN based on a scenario analysis assuming similar
success as seen at Na Sanun East. No change has been made to
our valuation of Wichian Buri as the Company’s focus has switched
to Na Sanun. Further exploration success in other fields such as Bo
Rang and Si Thep would deliver additional upside to our valuation.
Carnarvon Petroleum Limited Speculative Buy
Na Sanun Delivers
Share Price Performance
CARNARVON PETROLEUM LIMITED (CVN)

 

[jollyfrog]

The buyers are SHURE lining up for CVN this morning!!
Must be something to do with their new well, testing 1200 barrels a day or thereabouts?!
Could this be the start of something BIG??

 

[Sean K]

The buyers are SHURE lining up for CVN this morning!!
Must be something to do with their new well, testing 1200 barrels a day or thereabouts?!
Could this be the start of something BIG??

I don't know about that. The match is .235 after a close of .225. Surplus on the ask.

Let's not turn this thread hotcopperish....

 

[Sean K]

I don't know about that. The match is .235 after a close of .225. Surplus on the ask.

Let's not turn this thread hotcopperish....

Hooly. I might have to eat my words here. Things certainly picked up in the last 10 mins.

Let's still try to keep it real...

 

[jtb]

L44-H Appraisal Well
The L44-H well is located in the central lobe of the Na Sanun East (“NSE”) oil field,
approximately 3.25 kilometres north of the producing NS3-D1 well.
Well testing is continuing and a stable rate of 1,265 bbls/day has been achieved. The oil
is good quality at 35 degree API. A small amount of water is being produced varying
from 0.7% to 1.2% as the well continues to clean up and unloads the remainder of the
drilling fluids lost into the reservoir while drilling (“lost circulation”).
The well is free flowing on choke settings of 8/64 inch on the annulus and 17/64 inch on
the tubing. Flowing casing head pressure is 220 psi and flowing tubing head pressure is
280 psi indicating the well may be capable of oil production at even higher rates.
L44-H penetrated the top 14.5 meters of the target volcanic reservoir interval at a depth
of approximately 866 meters. Lost circulation (an indicator of good quality, fractured
reservoir) was encountered at three levels with total drilling fluid losses of more than
1,100 barrels. Electric logs indicated the best volcanic reservoir section yet encountered
in any well over the entire 14.5 meter thick volcanic interval. This has been confirmed by
the excellent oil flow rate.

Nice

 

[jollyfrog]

HEY KENNAS! I TOLD YOU SO! thanks for all your good posts, I always look forward to them.
By the way I did ok with dio the dog!

 

[lazyfish]

Sigh the market sure is fast though. I was somewhat hoping this ann won't be announced so early this morning so I could pick up a few, but oh well. I even woke up early today At the current production level 1000bpd net to CVN, @ AUD 60 profit (prolly a bit conservative), CVN nets around 21 Million, but after 50% Thailand company tax this is only around 10.5 Million. With 682 million shares (fully diluted) I think at this sp there's very little to take advantage of. I guess will have to wait. going back to bed

 

[1234]

going back to bed

.. no you're not.

You'll keep an eye on this and hope to hell you can pick some up before the second hop Monday.

 

[INORE]

I agree these guys are drilling "in the zone"...


Two more wells are to be tested with results expected in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Combined
with a continuous ongoing drilling programme of exploration, appraisal and development
wells, there should be plenty more excitement over the coming weeks and months.”
Yours faithfully
Carnarvon Petroleum Limited
RA Anderson
Company Secretary

 

[1234]

Massive day for this stock, huge volumes massive open ( 5+ year high).. didn't even look like correcting! Waiting for the second hop, for all the slow pokes to catch wind of it on Monday!! then it's go go go.

No idea where it will stop, or what it's worth. Blows the Hartley's valuation out of the water imo..

MORE drill results coming in the next week, this little stock could be something else..

Now well into self funded operation with 2700bopd at present +++

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Massive day for this stock, huge volumes massive open ( 5+ year high).. didn't even look like correcting! Waiting for the second hop, for all the slow pokes to catch wind of it on Monday!! then it's go go go.

No idea where it will stop, or what it's worth. Blows the Hartley's valuation out of the water imo..

MORE drill results coming in the next week, this little stock could be something else..

Now well into self funded operation with 2700bopd at present +++

It still needs to penetrate the 30c mark

Chart enclosed.

Sorry to be such a contrarian but I've been in this stock since way before the first date on the chart and every year or two get asked for a donation much like Vinnies, although Vinnies work keeps on in an uptrend.

Garpal

 

[1234]

mm, but they've never had this much success before either. ( from one drill )

All the other green candles (June etc ) have been on flow rates ~1/3 the size....

Nothing previous compares to this latest find... or potential !

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

mm, but they've never had this much success before either. ( from one drill )

All the other green candles (June etc ) have been on flow rates ~1/3 the size....

Nothing previous compares to this latest find... or potential !

Its a spinning top with a reasonable gap.

It didn't close at its high.

It may retrace to fill the gap.

Lets hope it doesn't

Garpal

 

[resourcesman]

its also the first time CVN has become self supporting
i think the market is ready to rerate it now as more than just a junior explorer.... maybe in the next week or so.......its derisked significantly because of this drill and because of it, its suddenly become more likely to go into full production sometime in the future

agree with gumnut, i hope it doesnt fill its gap in the next two weeks when i plan to offload a little