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CVN - Carnarvon Energy

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yogi-in-oz

Joined
6 November 2005
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Hi folks,

CVN ... so much for the "oil experts" ... this
stock has not stopped ticking up, since they
were bagging it down at 2 cents !~!

We will be alert for more good news from CVN,
early next week, around 12-13 June 2006.

07-10 July 2006 and 01 August 2006 also looks
positive for CVN .....

Will be alert for a high, around 16-17 August 2006.

happy days

yogi

 


Hi folks,

CVN ..... chart says it all .....

happy days

yogi

 

Attachments

  • CVNupdate09062006.pdf
    85.5 KB · Views: 243


Hi folks,

CVN ..... and as per post on 5th June 2006 above,
positive news come in, right on time .....

"Development Drilling Commences Wichian Buri Oilfield"

Today's report announced the start of 2 drilling
programmes, with a total of 26 wells, in 2006/2007.

CVN up 7.4%, today .....

happy days

yogi

 


Hi folks,

CVN ..... trading to the script so far, as per post on
5th June 2006 above .....

"07-10 July 2006 and 01 August 2006 also looks
positive for CVN .....

Will be alert for a high, around 16-17 August 2006."

More positive news today, as another payzone was added
to reserves, in the current well.

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... holding CVN

 
yogi-in-oz said:



We will be alert for more good news from CVN,
early next week, around 12-13 June 2006.

07-10 July 2006 and 01 August 2006 also looks
positive for CVN .....


Click to expand...
I see they've requested a Trading Halt, looks like you might be right.
 


Note for Joe: Chart for CVN would not load up on ASF.

Hi folks,

CVN ... after refloating the old lugger, back in
May 2005, she has defied the "eggspurts"
and more than tripled in value, since then:

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/8/cvnupdate08092006-901714.pdf

..... whilst the CVN chart above, shows us the
potential for a blowoff top over the coming months,
it does not show the VERY positive time cycle, that
we expect to be in play for most of this week .....

happy trading all

yogi

P.S. ..... AZM, AZZ and NWE may be other stocks to watch
over coming weeks, as well.

Will also be alert for a HUGE positive week
on the DOW this week ..... !~!



=====
 
Was asked an opinion on the chart of CVN elsewhere. Here it is, but just my opinion of course. Happy for anyone else to comment or make any other assessment.....

Looks to be back on the up, but will find it hard to crack $0.09 ish. Then through $0.10/.105 highs. MACD turned on the up recently, so it has some momentum. Volume way off since that Sep/Oct excitement. Not much else really....
 

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  • CVN.gif
    20.5 KB · Views: 1,636

Thanks mate, Hopefully the volume shouldn't be too far away HNY
 
This is from a Dec 06 Fat Prophet Report on the CVN site,
"Wichian Buri contains upgraded 2P (proven and probable) oil reserves of 14.2 million barrels, of which Carnarvon's share is 5.7 million barrels. Ignoring the premium for control of the asset, this values Carnarvon's 40% stake in the field at US$81.1 million (A$104 million) - or 21.5 cents a share. This compares with Carnarvon's current market cap of $38 million and share price of around 8 cents."
Resistence today seems around the .105 .11 cent mark, if it breaks and stays above .12, things should be very good for cvn holders IMHO.
 
Support coming in for CVN lately
Any Aussie Stockers thinking about the likes of HZN, PPP or FAR near term could do worse than have a look at CVN imo.
Less diluted than the first two also.
Funding issue has been resolved and a 'significant' (MD's quote) reserve upgrade due in April could be quite substantial. With the two new discoveries adding to the likely primary field upgrade also
3D seismic coming and lots of holes to be drilled starting any day.
Technically looks as though 10.5 / 11c could be the new floor.
Hartleys valuation @ 20-40c (see CVN website or yesterdays Sunday Times)

DYOR

Cheers
 
Can anybody breakdown the trades in this from yesterday afternoon please?

After yesterdays ann re: first hole of phase 2 we could be seeing a re-rating happening directly.
As the market seems to have been valueing CVN @ about $10 per bbl of WB field reserves the significant reserve upgrade due this month should be interesting .
As the reserve had only been calculated on the producing upper 'F' sand and the succesful wells from phase 1 intercepted previously untapped G and H sands (below and in addition to the F sand) I would conservatively expect an increase in reserve from 6 to 12 million barrels in th WB field alone.

This would equate to 20c per share @ $10 per bbl.

As the POE 6 and 9 discoveries are in separate fault blocks and 9 is presently producing from only one of the four intercepted zones, I can only speculate on the impact to reserves these will have:

With the first hole of this phase 2 program targeting a separate fault again (that has already flowed >1000 bbl/day) than I can see significant upside.

CVN have stated a phase 2 program risked (25%) potential of 16million bbl and P50 of 32 million bbl (CVN share).
This is in addition to the reserve announcement mentioned above.
So conservatively we could be looking at reserves >25 million barrels.

Which would be around 40c per share again @ 10c per bbl:

Please DYOR and have a good read of the recent investor presentation.
Have tried to attach the image showing the size of the structures but it's in B&W and looks RS
 
Amidst all the carnage today there are a few nice lookers. Especially (CVN) early in the day. Broken through resistance at 16c. But I will probably wait till end of day for entry, as has hit 61.8 fibonacci resistance from June 2006-April 2007 leg up, which is at $0.18. Notice the huge volume supporting the rise all this week, next target $0.22. Also supported by rising OBV.
 

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Thought I better let it run by not picking it in this months stock comp
Good move on a rough day.........................
 
I think this one is gonna run big time.

Just broke into 7-8 year highs and was a strong close on volume on friday which was generally a weak day.

Had an exam on friday so didnt have time to pick up any but i will put an order in for tuesdays open, and then top up on the pullback.

Pullback if it even happens i cant see much downside below .16. Should bounce off this or maybe just an intraday tail before we are away again.

On the fundies side i hear they have 35 wells planned for this year, their hit rate so far 8 out of 10. Broker report valuations are between 40c-50c.

Just my opinion...
 
CVN still has great potential. Their oil reserves continue to grow at a very good rate (success rate is 80% this year), yet CVN is still being undervalued by the market. I first bought into CVN a while back around the 6c mark on the back of Fat Prophet's buy recomendation. I should have held on to my 1 million shares. Such is life. But CVN had an excellent day on Friday considering all the red ink. Good luck to existing shareholders.
DYOR
 
CVN is doing well.
glad i bought into it @ 0.16 and it's at 0.225 today

good rise, and previous mgmt decided to divest exploration acerage and invest in production field.
Unfortunately that all went pear shaped due to operator self combusting.

Current operator appears to know on how to operate and this maybe the last chance to pick up sub 20 cents.
 
Forget picking up sub 20c, will be struggling to pick them up sub 30c very soon....

Announcement due soon and will fly.Has been gaining momentum.ASX query re price sent out so that will be raising a few eyebrows bringing it to the attention of many more.
 
Well I got to admit this came a bit earlier than I expected and I offloaded most of mine today.
Have been holding for a 100mil market cap and @ 23c she looks fully priced for the moment.
Still got my toe in the water.

Spewing I didn't pick her again in the june comp doh!
 
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