Bliimp an excellent excellent post there,
Re this manipulation are you talking about the share price being held down so it looks like the placement was done at a premium??? or are you talking about insider trading from 10c up????? Both puzzle me as I can see both occuring
LOL...this thread has gone off the heaazzzzy!
I didn't say Angola was like Aliens Vs Predator territory, with no respect for human life.
G'day YT
I think Bliimp was talking about Feb/March 08'. Have a look at the chart.
The stock formed a solid base at 18c and it ran hard a few times, with people thinking 'breakout' only to have a placement announced the next day. The stock than dived back to 18c. You can see what happened the third time.
Tallmantim: EXM did a placement to Hong Kong investors at a premium to the on market SP. And can I add this: At lot of you guys are from HC, and the man with the most knowledge about CVI (T4P) even wrote it himself that CVI should have made placements at a premium to the SP, which would have equated to less shares issued and more confidence in the team.
You need something to entice the "sophisticated investors" - usually a discount, or a free option for speculative shares!
Secondly, don't twist my words. I didn't say Angola was like Aliens Vs Predator territory, with no respect for human life. I said it was A LOT riskier than Oxiana's territory in Australia.
You all sit here and say "oh it has to be done like this because that's business in Angola". Does that make it right? The people who you basically "employ" create dilution amongst your positions?
As if any of you can honestly say that when the placements were made and the SP dropped accordingly that you weren't left a little dumbfounded/annoyed? I know I sat there and watched the SP get manipulated...up up and away thinking "thank god" only to see another dreaded "3B" and see the price go DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN...
Well, CVI is staying in the portfolio because this one to me is basically a write off. I will keep it to teach myself a lesson...
LOL man keep these one liners coming, "AvP territory" love it
ohhh also I just checked what CVI did in the US and it looks like it closed at 23c US (I'm assuming) = 25.5c AUD, sorta bodes well for Monday I guess, but then someone said that the OTC is a joke mkt (think it was Goldman on the GCR thread re Legend)
p.s. Its in USD yeah??
LOL JTLP - you will note me message below. You are aware I assume that they gave away a free option with that placement? A free option that is trading currently at about 1 cent?
What would CVI entice shareholders in with? Do you think we should have done a placement when the price was at 15 cents at 20 cents with a free CVIO option? I don't think so.
No - what you said was that Oxiana was in a stable part of the world, which infers whether you meant it or not that Angola is not a stable part of the world. I put some evidence showing that while Angola is by no means perfect (it's sitting on the 30th percentile as a rating of stability) it is more stable than countries like Indonesia that are commonly invested in.
Risk is relative. Geological risk for many of CVIs holdings is very low - they are working off assays that the Russians did during the war, although they are not JORC compliant. There is a higher level of sovereign risk with it. Overall the risk is much lower IMO than many Australian explorers when you look at the overall profile.
Yes - hopefully that is a thing of the past and the company have learned from it. Very unsavoury!
LOL - at what price did you buy in? Either you bought at the top of the hype for the first time (ie. high 30's) or you are within striking distance of being in the money. What lesson do you want to teach yourself? Portfolio risk management? Doesn't sound like it is doing much teaching in your bottom drawer! They should have been sold already to teach you that lesson!
Yes - the overseas listing are IMO largely irrelevant at the moment, however I think they are a core part of the longer term strategy.
All is lead from the Australian market.
Yes, in US$.
OK. I'm going to try and number and title some things so we both don't get lost.
1. Placements
I am aware about the free options given out. That doesn't concern me. The general market looked at the investors receiving shares at a premium to the SP, hence the nice rise and support (not atm though!). CVI couldn't do this why?
Why not entice "sophisticated" investors (which reminds me of another thing which i will point out) with some CONCRETE evidence and deals? I'm pretty sure the people who were handling the 3B's pretty much killed all credibility in CVI. (again, T4P even criticized your saviour MS about the dealing of the placements)
2. Political Stability
Timmy, let me point something out to you. I do think that Angola is not a stable part of the world. Just because IMF or whoever puts it into some ranking system, doesn't mean i'm going to set up my local milkbar in Angola because it's better than Indonesia. Let me ask you this, would you travel to Angola and try to set up a business there as a foreigner? Or would you take your family there for a holiday?
Look at the surrounding nations (Nigeria etc). All countries that teeter on the edge of civil war. It is nice to see Angola rising from the ashes of its former self, but lets face it, it's no pheonix, and there is always a risk of someone snapping. You can say that CVI have connections in Angola, but have you ever studied Law? If so, you will take note that if anythign was to ever go sour, i'm pretty sure the CVI board would be up against these "prominent" Angolan's in Angola's courts (Hello Schapelle Corby!), quite the formidable task you must agree?
Or, I can put it like this. We all know Australia is a free and beautiful country. I'm sure if you had a dispute with somebody in business, you would receive a fair and honest civil trial, and could be 99.9% sure that the findings that were returned and the way the case was handled was honest.
Could CVI expect the same in Angola if things turned Chromeo? (Nasty girl for all those playing at home).
3. Buy-In Price
Although it's really nobody's business, I can tell you that I've been in and out of CVI twice. Made nice coin off the first. This time around not so lucky (a few cents off my buy in yes).
And what does it tell me about risk management? I know I am a risky person...hell just last week I started crossing the road when the red man was flashing NO! BUT HELL TIMMY I DID IT!
Seriously, the thing I found with CVI is that setting close stops did nothing (due to the manipulation). Having it sit in my bottom drawer makes me look at it and think "what a stupid mistake that one was" everytime i see it. I will probably frame the CHESS certificate when I do sell it just for kicks.
It has actually taught me to understand a companies structure and make sure that you understand and trust the board. Until Mark Smyth starts signing, sealing and delivering...my trust will always be thattta way ---->
Well obviously the company has no focus, and since I first checked them out the fundamentals have been constantly changing.Price movement is the only thing most are interested in with CVI and may be worth a serious investment once they focus on a goal to completion.
Presently holding for s.p. movement alone.
.
I didn't say I don't believe in them. I said they have zero credibility with all the nonsense that has occured. Until they start churning out the SSD (signed, sealed, delivered) announcements, they will continue to have the big, juicy, fat ZERO credibility.
Obtain % rights to 4 oil blocks = +1
Successfully complete this underwriting facility = +1
Firm up JORC of Cu & Au grounds = +1
Stop %#^! placements = +1
Become a concreting business just for kicks (concrete deals + another pie for CVI to put a mutant finger in) = +1
See...it's not hard to gain credibility. Don't promise what you don't have
Selling? As I said: do the right thing it's an obligation, and the share price will thank you for your co-operation (CHA CHA sing it to the clean up Australia tune circa '99). If the trend is UP and CVI start to DELIVER why would I sell? They are currently an example of a very bad share IN MY VIEW in MY PORTFOLIO. If they start to come through I could re-frame the CHESS letter saying I bought them, only this time throw the phrase "Patience + Placements = WINNER" underneath it.
Timmy, I wish us all the best with CVI.
Well, guys let it be known there is at least one Top 20 holder posting here, and 1 not far off. So having contact with MS and Team, we might seem a little bullish.
The cost of a new refinery is pretty nebulous, but my best estimates (from so many disparate sources, I could faint!) is about $1,000 - 5,000 per (barrel per stream day capacity), depending on the capacity of the refinery. The lower the capacity the lower the unit bpd cost.
For example, a 20,000 bpd capacity refinery may cost $20 million, while a 100,000 bpd capacity refinery might cost $500 million.
For example, in Nigeria, I recently read that the 12,000 bpd topping modular refinery for Akwa-Ibom is for $10 million, while the 100,000 bpd complex refinery being touted for Tonwei Refinery in Bayelsa is estimated at $1.2 billion.
Prawn,
I agree that it is ambiguous, you need to take the company at face value. They have followed through with what they have said in past; minerals, oil, diamonds and funding etc all look like reality, however the structure is still not crystal clear.
If people are not comfortable investing in a company without crystal clear tangible assets, CVI is not for them. On the speculative side, something like EXM is more appropriate - great blue sky potential with clear title to ground in Australia.
Investing in CVI is to a certain extent about belief - amazing potential, but to some looks too good to be true. For me, they continue to show that it IS true.
Cheers
One of the outlays with the finance package is to construct and commission a 100,000 bbl/day oil refinery.Knowing a bit about industry and construction I thought this woulkd cost a fair chunk of the $1.1 billion.The quotes below are from a web page discussing costs/time etc.
Another price on the Tonwei oil refinery in Nigeria is $2 billion.
http://tonweirefinery.com/bayelsa_oil_refinery_to_cost__2bn.htm
http://www.dawodu.com/aluko60.htm
In the early days of refinery discussion MS has advised people that the refinery would require $200 Million.
More recently, some people that have been in contact with MS have advised that $400 Million is now required.
So there you go between $200M and $400M
Remember this is not a new refinery. It is relocation and recommision of an existing , PERHAPS elderly less technically advanced ( which is not necessarily bad) refinery.
This option is generally cheaper than a NEW high tech refinery.
The super High tech new 240,000 day /barrel refinery to be located at Lobito will touch $6 billion we are told.
Right you are 123enen about the relocation, do you know what happened to the onshore Kwanza Basin, Angola oil concessions and the Cameroon Matanda block?
I hope that the HC people that read this accept that I have been fair in my assesment.
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