CTP - Central Petroleum

[bordercityfirm]

Sorry leeTV.....I wasn't allowed to post the link as I hadn't posted enough times!......Please lengthen your post you have and so on

 

[LeeTV]

Sorry leeTV.....I wasn't allowed to post the link as I hadn't posted enough times!......Please lengthen your post you have and so on

No need to be sorry. It's not a bad site for a quick analysis of a stock. I recognised the layout when you posted and knew straight away where it was from.

John Heugh, Managing Director of CTP, presented in Fremantle Perth today at the Good Oil Conference so we should see an ASX announcement either tomorrow or Friday in that regard. I doubt there will be anything in it we haven't already heard but it's bound to attract more interest which is always a good thing.

 

[bordercityfirm]

LeeTV, I wouldn't mind if CTP stayed under the radar for a while longer so that I can pick up some more on the cheap. The only real problem I see with CTP will be when you have to press the sell button. With the acreage that they hold and one good find you might never want to sell. But if you don't sell then you don't make any money.

I started to get into CTP on the huge potential targets (Johnstone etc) that they have with CSG just a side bonus. However the more I read on their CSG the more the conventional oil and gas projects become a side bonus.....what a problem to have

 

[gaps]

hi all,

well havent seen the presentation posted on asx yet but i read it from hotcopper, bigstar, posted some extract from the presentation. He mentioned that he called JH and got a pdf version off him.

have yet to view the original pdf of the presentation, but looking at the figures presented, it's a summary of some of us here would have know about CTP.

this is an extract from what Bigstar posted.

•Central operates over 250,000 km²
•Proven prospectivity- ground surrounds 2 producing fields Mereenie, Palm Valley (Santos/Magellan JV)
•Billion barrel oil, multi TCF gas and multi BCF Helium* conceptual potential
•Trillion tonne coal UCG/CSG potential ( Maynard 2009)
•> 10,000 TCFG prospective syngas resources from UCG applications ( Mulready 2009)
•1.25 trillion GTL middle distillate (diesel) prospective resources from UCG syngas ( Mulready 2009)
•Dominant position in 4 whole basins
•Conventional and Non-conventional plays
•Underexplored-well density 1/5,000 km²
•Helium* c. $100/mcfg versus natural gas Australia c.$3-5/mcfg

imo, the helium prospect is really intriguing not mentioning the billion barrel oil and the trillion tonne coal.

judging from the ann, there should be some news about the drilling dates, likely to be in october now.

would appreciate input here please esp anyone who has been following ctp for a longer time. Thanks in advance.

i reckon with this kind of stocks, have to sell to est free carry.

 

[quarky]

the only thing i've seen is this:

28/08/2009 Response to ASX Price Query


where it was a reply to the ASX querying about the 'sudden' spike in trading and price last week when it jumped from 0.08 to 0.12

that's all.


CTP looks promising but traditionally, in the ASX the months of September/October aren't good months for stocks going up...possibly because all those in the northern hemisphere return home after their summer holidays and re-rate their portfolios, prices, etc.

 

[adobee]

Wow still looking promising today ...
Options breaking through 8c ( I still think they are really really cheap .. 2014 - trillion tonne resource can easily be confirmed by then...)
And stock breaking 14c which I saw as the resistance line with 2mill plus on buy side at 14c ...

I am sitting on small parcel of options from a week ago.. would have been a nice trade now.. but unfortunately there is no way i am selling these are in the store room to 2014 ...

 

[bordercityfirm]

Pacific Oil and Gas Ltd in 1992, intersected a thin sandstone unit in the Heavitree Quartzite, which flowed helium-rich gas at a non-commercial rate on test

The well intersected a thin (4.5 m) Heavitree Quartzite sandstone which flowed helium and nitrogen rich gas at a stabilised rate of 63.1 Mscfd (1784 m3/d). The gas composition (high C2+), extremely low flowing pressure (38 psi), low reservoir permeability and possible Type I (algal) source suggests that heavier ends may have been left in the formation, preventing liquids recovery (Wakelin-King 1994). It is uncertain whether fractures contributed to, or dominated the small gas flow.
Despite this encouraging result, the southeastern Amadeus Basin remains largely unexplored.

The high helium content (6.2%) of the Magee-1 gas is evidence of high seal integrity.
With a retention period estimated to be approximately 700 Ma, preservation is the critical play element in the lower Gillen Member–Heavitree Quartzite petroleum system.
Proterozoic basins with giant oil and gas fields such as the Sichuan Basin (China), East Siberia Basin (Russia) and the South Oman Basin are all capped by thick evaporite successions.

Many commercial extracts of helium from hydrocarbons take place with concentrations of as little as 0.3% or higher.

"The 185 bcf of helium is part of a 3 tcf gas target at Mt Kitty, so keep that in mind, in regard to asset valuations. These estimates are at the P90 level, so are optmistic. Still possible though. If 1/5 of the P90 target is discovered the SP effect will still be major
15bcf of helium is at Magee and part of a .8tcf gas target. This is where gas and helium has previously flowed to the surface. That is something to be excited about."


Helium from Gas
"part of the total composition of the gas stream. It can range from mere parts per millions to a few percent of the total composition. In almost all cases, it has to be extracted as a by-product of the gas stream which is for the most part methane. Typically the gas stream contains inerts such as helium and nitrogen and corrosives such as CO2. Depending on the richness of the gas, heavier ends ie C3+..., may be present. Generally through refrigeration, recovery of these heavier components is possible ie propane, butane, pentane, etc.

Again the amount recoverable is a function of the quality of the gas and how lean or rich it is. The percentages vary field by field and sometimes well by well. For the helium to be extracted, the methane itself has to prove to be economic ie commercial rates required to build plant, infrastructure"

 

[bordercityfirm]

Demand for helium from high-tech industries is out-stripping supply. Why the sudden supply crunch?[1] Suppliers have had to ration while not refusing to provide helium for priority medical equipment, large research installations and NASA. But the supply was and will be withheld from general purposes and low priority applications.

As high-tech industries develop, worldwide demand is growing fast. Consumption increased by between 5 and 10% annually in the 1990s then slowed to around 3% annually this century. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, present helium consumption is estimated to be circa 75 tons per day or 170 million cubic metres per year. On current estimates, global consumption may only be sustained for a few more decades.

Handled and marketed by the industrial gases sector, helium was in the past simply obtained as a by-product of the separation of atmospheric gases, but as a result of the growing demand, nowadays it is mostly supplied as a by-product from the petroleum industry. Commercial production of liquefied or compressed helium for the World market is concentrated in seven countries: the USA (the world’s first producer), Poland, Qatar, Algeria, Russia, China and Australia. In the USA, the helium reserve was privatized in 1996 and is now in the process of being sold off, whereas helium production appears to have already peaked.

During 2006, most helium suppliers announced price increases of 10% to 15%. These adjustments were justified by record-high energy and transportation costs, continuing increases in crude helium costs, rising utility and labour costs. But essentially, increased helium costs were the result of a growing reliance on crude helium supplied by the US Bureau of Land Management, whose stockpile is playing an increasing role in the helium supply, as crude helium production from lower cost private sources declines, due to depletion of some of the richer natural gas fields. It is anticipated that helium costs will continue to rise along with increasing production costs as USA helium reserves continue to decline.

Two large helium projects at Algeria and Qatar (both countries holding large natural gas reserves) came on-stream in late 2005. These had been expected to increase supply by some 20%, but have run into technical trouble, and the international market was not eased. The Algeria expansion project, designed to increase production capacity by 16.6 million cubic meters per year came on-stream at about one-half of its nominal capacity. The Qatar project, a new helium extraction facility with a production capacity of 8.3 million cubic meters, also had operational problems and output has been less than expected.

The world market is highly concentrated as mergers and acquisition have taken place rather recently. Very few large industrial gases corporations, which trace their ancestry to more than a century ago, lead the helium World market. Air Liquide, founded in 1902, has a labour force of nearly 36 thousand and operates in about 70 countries, with sales amounting to € 10.4 billion in 2005. It is a world leader in industrial and medical gases and related equipment and services. The Group offers solutions based on constantly enhanced technologies, over an ever increasing range of applications.

BOC Group plc and Linde AG are now members of The Linde Group, having merged in 2006, after approval first by the European Commission, in June, followed by the US Federal Trade Commission, in September. The Linde Group is another world leader in industrial gases with a 53 thousand strong labour force, operating in some 70 countries, with a sales volume of about US$ 16 billion in 2005.

Another important World player is the Tokyo based Taiyo Nippon Sanso Corporation (TNSC), that resulted from the merger of Taiyo Toyo with Nippon Sanso in 2004. As an ancillary part of Linde's 2006 acquisition of BOC Group, TNSC bought certain helium assets from Linde AG and BOC Group plc, including long-term helium supply contracts in the USA, Poland and Russia, two trans-fill locations in the US, and operations in Europe. This transaction was officially approved by both the US Federal Trade Commission and the European Commission, in September 2006. In the USA, the acquired helium business will be managed by TNSC's subsidiary, Matheson Tri-Gas, Inc. under the name Matheson Tri-Gas Global Helium.

There are no known sources of refined helium not already committed in long term contracts. A hypothetical new entrant in this market would need to locate a new source of crude helium and build a refinery. Constructing a helium refinery large enough to be viable in the world market would cost between $25 to $100 million dollars. In addition, tens of millions of dollars would be needed to acquire the necessary infrastructure for distribution, trans-fill facilities, cryogenic and high-pressure tube trailers and liquid dewars, capable of transporting helium from the refinery to customers.

Peak helium is a challenge to geologists as it is to economists who assess market trends and the viability of investments. It might turn into a nightmare to technologists who require those properties that helium alone holds.

http://www.sandersresearch.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1240

 

[adobee]

Good Oil Presentation Announced, I love when people talk in the Trillions..

Highlights:
•Central operates over 250,000 km²
•Proven prospectivity- ground surrounds 2 producing fields Mereenie, Palm Valley (Santos/Magellan JV)
•Billion barrel oil, multi TCF gas and multi BCF Helium* conceptual potential
•Trillion tonne coal UCG/CSG potential ( Maynard 2009)
•> 10,000 TCFG prospective syngas resources from UCG applications ( Mulready 2009)
•1.25 trillion GTL middle distillate (diesel) prospective resources from UCG syngas ( Mulready 2009)
•Dominant position in 4 whole basins
•Conventional and Non-conventional plays
•Underexplored-well density 1/5,000 km²
•Helium* c. $100/mcfg versus natural gas Australia c.$3-5/mcfg

 

[bordercityfirm]

This has to break 14.5c now otherwise it's not going anywhere for a while. A lot of selling pressure at the moment, how many times will it try for a fail at 14.5

I'm thinking about locking in some profits "average 8.5c" and getting some OEX who have just got a rig (songa mercer is the word on the street) and will be drilling 2 wells this year.

 

[LeeTV]

This has to break 14.5c now otherwise it's not going anywhere for a while. A lot of selling pressure at the moment, how many times will it try for a fail at 14.5

I'm thinking about locking in some profits "average 8.5c" and getting some OEX who have just got a rig (songa mercer is the word on the street) and will be drilling 2 wells this year.

Without a positive announcement on a drilling date and/or JV partners I doubt the resistance @ 14.5c will be broken anytime soon and expect the sp to fluctuate around 12 - 14c till we get some news. Good time to sell some @ 14c and pick them back up @ 12c imo, but don't get caught out :

 

[bordercityfirm]

don't worry LeeTV I was only talking about some profit, I usually work on the 75% basis and leave in 25% just in case. CTP is diffinantly one I don't want to be caught out on, but OEX is just too good with an ann out at any time with their rig. OEX are one step head of CTP at the moment so prepared to move some funds across.

 

[gaps]

hey bc and lee, yea nice presentation with impressive potential we have here.

we have been trying 14.5 cents for the third time, hopefully third time lucky!!

still a big resistance at the 14.5 mark and i think it can only be overcome with some ann from the coy.

nice profit there bc, with a strong gain today as well. i have toyed with selling now and re entering later too. but seriously dun want to miss out on it. should be hearing news about NT gov approval, opcon JV and the drill dates soon enough. i m esp keen to hear about our Jv, British gas.

JH mentioned about drilling mid sept to oct. so we shouldnt be too far from those dates now. with the amount of cash we have for our marketcap, and the drilling programme we are due to embark, this is surely an exciting time for CTP holders.

a little patience here i reckon.

regards gaps.

 

[bordercityfirm]

3rd time, more like 6th time lucky! and that's just in the last 6mths. CTP have huge potential, huge! but just can't break 14.5c and hold too many happy with their profit at that.

I usually like 100% plus on my investments, but I might just have tobe happy with 65% on this one. Will hold some as a long term as you just never know as I've said before. So I'll keep in touch, check out OEX if you get a chance leeTV and gaps and tell me what you think. I have heard that shell wanted in as it was better than Sunrise but the Japanese had already got in first. Rig is booked, annoucement anytime which should set a small rocket under the wings.

Locking in profit is the name of the game. You never go bust making profit.

 

[zippy69]

A friend has these and thinks they will go to $10 within a year or so. Do others hold this view or is she dreaming

 

[UPKA]

A friend has these and thinks they will go to $10 within a year or so. Do others hold this view or is she dreaming

so has she put her house on it yet?

at the current MC, CTP is valued at $80m, so 66x current MC will give u a value of $5b... with 1 or 2 drill rigs, which hasnt even started drilling yet, come on...

 

[Pallen]

A friend has these and thinks they will go to $10 within a year or so. Do others hold this view or is she dreaming

Lol.

This friend on hotcopper, bunch of mindless rampers who live on cloud nine 24/7.

Never going to happen, I had to laugh at the presentation done by the MD - suggesting CTP could have access to 1100TCF on its tenements, now doesnt that sound impressive?

Pity that there is less than that in known resources around the world.

Hot air, and a heap of it.

They would be better off focusing on their helium play.

 

[zippy69]

Lol.

This friend on hotcopper, bunch of mindless rampers who live on cloud nine 24/7.

Never going to happen, I had to laugh at the presentation done by the MD - suggesting CTP could have access to 1100TCF on its tenements, now doesnt that sound impressive?

Pity that there is less than that in known resources around the world.

Hot air, and a heap of it.

They would be better off focusing on their helium play.

When she told me I thought she was dreaming, but didnt have the hear to tell her. I thought i would ask just incase there was some potential.

 

[BESBS Player]

Hi guys,

Despite the PR put out by the company, I tend to take these valuations with a grain of salt. Most are based on computer programs and until the drill bit turns, we don't know. It is largely speculation.

That said, CTP does have some redeeming features.
It is drilling in largely virgin territory and Johnstone will excite the market pre-drill due to the potential estimates. Yes, they are potential estimates, but punters do read them. And wildcats do have an approximately 1 in 10 chance of success. Whether the projected oil quantities would be present if drilling is successful is still to be seen. Nonetheless, the punter excitement is enough for me to see serious $$$$$ in this as a BESBS (and maybe leave a little on the table as the drill bit turns).

The CSG adds potential value but to me, the real potential here is Johnstone.

Just MHO and I'm sure some long termers will really rate the CSG potential much higher than I do.

Good luck with CTP.

Holding CTP at 9c ave

 

[adobee]

A friend has these and thinks they will go to $10 within a year or so. Do others hold this view or is she dreaming

Your friend might need a rest...

That being said the options are really drying up.. 2014 is looking very attractive...