CTP - Central Petroleum

[hsv2001]

the market seemed to really like this just before close, if you look at the market depth, the buyers highly outweigh the sellers, with only approx 700000 sellers ranging from 25c to 72c, i believe we are in for an interesting trading day on monday. let's hope anyways

marc

 

[Gangis]

Thanks Young Trader.

I realise CTP's ann was in relation to a potential target they have, however are prices of KIK and MXR based on targets they have or finds thaey have officially made.

I know you can not give exmaples for ctp as nothing has been found. Im just trying to comprehend what sought of return there is based on finds of 10mil, 100mil barrels etc.

I am happy to do the research if you (or anyone else) can point out any other oil companys that have made drilled and found 10mil+ barrels. (the small cap comapnys if possible)

Im trying to get a context for the oil industry as i can not value the stock or its potential.

Thanks for your help

 

[doctorj]

That being said its an absolutely huge target, 2 Billion Barrels is monstrous, however I'm not sure what sort of confidence interval you can attach to it

I'd say there is an extremely low probability there is anywhere near that much there - without more detail (and more skills on my behalf), it's impossible to say, but my feeling is the probability of there being oil bearing structures there amounting to that much would be around 1-2.5%.

What they've done is interpretted old data and discovered targets amounting to that much potential size. It's a pipe dream created using the most optimistic of assumptions.

They're years, millions of dollars in drilling and truck load of luck away from getting anything near this 'target'.

 

[Jumbalumba]

Say there is 1% chance. That would be an expected value of 20million barrels (for the Pedirka Basin only) . I do believe CTP is still undervalued given this low expectation.

 

[robs12]

And there I was thinking I was talking to myself...hello all. Glad to see someone's taken notice. Some way to go here & potential is huge, but the newsflow should be high over the coming weeks/months.

 

[countryboy]

I have to say that recently we are seeing the rise of numerous announcements which state they are targeting Blah,Blah,blah billion of whatever. It helped me recently with MXR(I made heaps)

CTP could ann they are targeting oil fields twice the size of Saudi Arabia but the real chances of this are on a par with winning Lotto.

I believe we need guidance in this area from regulators...ha fat chance !

 

[copper_hot]

Pretty good article from the Australian April 10. Could get more attention with some more press this week following from the announcement friday:

A MONTH ago, the prevailing view on this central Australian oil and gas pioneer was that it was hiding its light under a mulga bush. But be assured that's no longer the case, thanks to A Current Affair.

In one of those shameless cross-promotion exercises (for PBL Media's Money magazine), the fearless exposer of dodgy realtors endorsed Central as one of three picks from veteran stock watcher David Hazelhurst.

The next day Central shares jumped as much as 40 per cent, or 5.5c, to a new high of 19.5c on stiff volume of 7 million shares, which proves that: (a) at least some Channel Nine viewers still exist and (b) they're just as receptive to a decent stock tip as a miracle fat cure.

In truth, your columnist is peeved he missed out on tipping the stock earlier, in that a couple of readers had sung Central's praises, but he was preoccupied with two-bit tiddlers elsewhere.

Central is an unusual play on three counts: its funding methods; its focus on the underexplored dead heart; and the intended exploitation of expected gas finds through a gas-to-liquids plant.

A fourth quirk is that, as a side play, it's exploring for helium, an abundant element that has become increasingly scarce in usable form. The Americans have been selling down their stockpiles of helium, prized not so much for party balloons but as a safer cooling agent in nuclear reactors.

Since listing in 1998, Central has acquired 250,000 square kilometres of acreage, the biggest onshore Australian tenement holding of any company. But it's what is under the crust that counts.

Central this month is due to embark on the first leg of a $30million, five-well program in the Northern Territory.

According to Central chief John Heugh, the turf has been "generally neglected" since the 1970s and 1980s -- and for good reason. Most of it is covered by the inhospitable Simpson Desert, which is more renown for camel power than manpower or infrastructure.

We're not sure how the rock kickers nut these things out without the benefit of a hole or two, but Central has reason to believe there's plenty of the slimy stuff below, as well as conventional and coal-bed methane gas.

The first effort, Blamore 1, targets 70 million barrels of "undiscovered oil in place". The second, Simpson 1, will target 190 million barrels. Then there's three wells to flow-test coal-bed sites known to contain gas.

Central is being helped by two farm-in buddies, Petroleum Exploration Australia (linked to chief backer Martin Place Securities) and the listed Rawson Resources, the latter through both farm-in and farm-out deals.

Central's grand plan is to quickly exploit any finds for cash flow, but its grand plan is to build a large-scale gas-to-liquids plant in Alice Springs.

Rather than selling stranded gas to the eastern seaboard at a relatively low price, the plant would convert the gas to ultra-clean diesel, jet fuel and naptha for export markets.

The idea is to ship the stuff to Darwin on that snazzy new rail line. What a fine idea: the rail line, which cost taxpayers $800million, would then be used for a purpose other than conveying travel writers on freebies on The Ghan.

To give a flavour of the economics, Heugh and co are eyeing CBM reserves of 44 to 77 trillion cubic feet, with "34 tcf would be sufficient for a 140,000 barrels a day plant over 70 years", Heugh says. "There's sound reason for looking at the viability of such a large-scale plant." On the flipside, development costs would amount to several billion dollars.

Funding-wise, Central has availed itself of a $80 million rolling bond arrangement, pseudo convertible notes, which can be drawn down in $1 million lots when the funds are needed.

Heugh says it's cheaper than going to the market for equity funding, while both the company and the bondholder, a hedge fund, enjoy the flexibility to walk away. "If we drill six dusters in a row and the share price is driven down to 15c, the thing will be terminated," he says. There's also protection mechanisms so the bondholder can't take control on the cheap.

We're reluctant to ascribe a speculative buy to Central -- "as seen on TV" -- Petroleum, given the share ramp-up over the past week. But if Central attains a fraction of its potential, the stock would be worth much more than its $30 million market cap, so we'll do so anyway.

Watch for the first drill results by the end of June.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

CTP has just announced a 2000 M illion Barrel field target in Aust


Thats 2Billion Barrels,

I think the mkt is yet to catch on to this


DYOR

I have no idea HSV,

It must be stressed that this is a target only and thus is speculative,

that being said I will offer the following examples

NDO 11M bl field Sp 24c -48cc now 55c

KIK 2Billion Barrel Oil Field 16c-25c now 28c

MXR target 3Billion tonnes Fe Sp 13c - 33c back to 20c

and who could forget EPS 1Bt Fe target 20c-80c now 35c

The point is although they are targets the mkt is captivated by such ann's at the moment and as such this could go for a similar run
Please DYOR as its Spec

Well this played out to a tee, mkt missed the ann when it was 20c when I first posted and like other "ramped" stocks with multi billion tonne Iron ore or in this case Oil targets it went for a run

I sold all today and made a very nice profit (40%-50% in 1 day is nothing to scoff at)

Now lets wait for the next stock to do this kinda ann and all get on board early

 

[strayda11]

I took half shortly after open- holding half as I still think it may have some way to go. Still huge volume. What are your thoughts?

 

[Max_ob]

hey YT


does this mean that you feel ctp hasn't got what it takes to keep going higher?


i must be the sucker that buys after it takes off. . . . i have been watching since 16c myself and was too foolish not to jump in then and now jump in 10c higher. . . as i thought it actually has got potential. . .

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Max, if you read my post I said clearly at 20c the mkt has missed the ann and that the stock could go for a run

It opened up today at 29.5c so it clearly did go for a run of almost 50%,


The volume today shows that now lots of traders are on board, it could do anything, I am surprised at the volumes, I will look to buy back, but you must treat this for waht it is a spec oiler with a target, a very very large target

 

[TheAbyss]

hey YT


does this mean that you feel ctp hasn't got what it takes to keep going higher?


i must be the sucker that buys after it takes off. . . . i have been watching since 16c myself and was too foolish not to jump in then and now jump in 10c higher. . . as i thought it actually has got potential. . .

The text in the release on the 23rd May should have waved a great big danger sign to all. Any company who places a throw away line such as the below is on an obvious fishing expedition in my opinion and just looking to fan the fires of market sentiment.

Mobilization of Hunt Rig 2 to commence Central’s 2008 drilling programme is
poised to start shortly with the planned sequence of the Blamore 1 well
followed by a Coal Bed Methane well (CBM) or two and then the Simpson 1
well in the Pedirka Basin. An update of timing will be released shortly.last

 

[Max_ob]

thanks for the comments YT and TA. . .


still way too much of a virgin trader. . . . but learning. . . albeit very slowly

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Max,

After your post I had to re-read mu original posts to make sure I had not given the wrong impression or anything, I hope I made it clear that at 20c the stock presented a potential run up just like others had done on the back of such ann's and I think I did

Kinda like CVI which I bought because I thought based on the ann it released about $1B of funidng it was worth 26c-26.5c and it did get there so I sold,

CTP is hard to value, the target is huge but its just that a target, the rotary lie detector as they call it will be at work soon with the Balmore and Simpson wells which are targeting 200M bls,

To give you an idea you usually value Oil in the Ground at $20 a barrel, so 200M barrels in the ground would be worth $4Billion, huge numbers I know but remember its just a target,

I expect the stock to be very volatile given the volume as no doubt alot of traders are on board however if they find something none of this will matter as fundamentals will take over

Anyone know when the wells being drilled? all I could find was "soon"

 

[nyo]

CTP announcement....Any comments?


ASX ANNOUNCEMENT RELEASED to the ASX DATE: 27/05/08
TO: Manager, Company Announcements ASX Limited
CONTACT: John Heugh +61 8 9474 1444
27/05/08

Rig Moblisation to Blamore 1 oil well Pedirka Basin

Central Petroleum Limited (CTP-Central) has today decided to begin moblising Hunt Rig No.2 to the Blamore 1 oil well location in the Pedirka Basin on June 5th 2008. Water is being produced from 3 water well sites to assist in road preparation. Any change to this programme brought about by possible operational exigencies will be promptly notified to the market.

The Pedirka Basin is a recognised prospective province for oil exploration with many similarities to the Cooper Basin. Previous drilling has underscored the presence of three distinct petroleum systems in the Permian, Triassic and Jurassic as well as highlighting the potential for Coal Bed Methane prospective recoverable resources.

The Blamore 1 oil well is to be followed by one or two CBM exploration wells prior to drilling the Simpson 1 well.

Total Undisovered Oil Initially in Place “high” estimate (UOIIP) to be addressed by the Joint Venture with Petroleum Exploration Australia Limited (PXA) in the Pedirka Basin is now over 700 MMbbls in the Blamore, Avalon, Simpson, Bejah and Dune prospects together with assessed prospective recoverable resources (“low” to high” estimate) of 34-70 TCFG in CBM in the shallower coal sections of the Pedirka Basin.

The initial programme planned for 2008 is Blamore 1, and 3 CBM wells, (some of which will also test deeper conventionally reservoired oil and gas potential) and Simpson 1. Seismic has been shot by the Joint Venture with PXA over the Madigan prospect, (EP 97) the Guinevere prospect and the Vivienne prospect (both in EP 93).

Central with Joint Venture partner Petroleum Exploration Australia is farming in to the Simpson, Bejah and Dune prospect blocks in EP 97 held by Rawson Resources Limited. (RAW).

Subject to drilling success and the results of new seismic being mapped, the Joint Venture may determine to keep the drilling rig in the Pedirka to drill additional prospects prior to releasing for the remainder of the 2008 drilling programme inclusive of Mt Kitty 1 and Ooraminna 2 in the
Amadeus Basin.

 

[Rocket man]

Guys can anyone please estimate a time frame when DBZ will stop manipulating the price down to get their issue ? as announced drill is mobilising so expect this to move positively once DBZ stop selling

 

[robjb5]

Hey Max,

After your post I had to re-read mu original posts to make sure I had not given the wrong impression or anything, I hope I made it clear that at 20c the stock presented a potential run up just like others had done on the back of such ann's and I think I did

Kinda like CVI which I bought because I thought based on the ann it released about $1B of funidng it was worth 26c-26.5c and it did get there so I sold,

CTP is hard to value, the target is huge but its just that a target, the rotary lie detector as they call it will be at work soon with the Balmore and Simpson wells which are targeting 200M bls,

To give you an idea you usually value Oil in the Ground at $20 a barrel, so 200M barrels in the ground would be worth $4Billion, huge numbers I know but remember its just a target,

I expect the stock to be very volatile given the volume as no doubt alot of traders are on board however if they find something none of this will matter as fundamentals will take over

Anyone know when the wells being drilled? all I could find was "soon"

Mobilisation commences approx.5th.June..Spud-in approx.15th.June.....................................................

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey guys,


I reckon CTP may go for a run next week

Today they have released a comprehensive report outlining their CBM recoverable resources

Prospective recoverable resources of CBM in Central’s 7 Pedirka Basin permits and applications now stand at 34, 47 and 70 TCFG at “low”, “best” and “high” estimates according to the reports.

Even the Low Case 34 TCF is huge

On top of that they have made the following comment

Although approximately 14 wells have been drilled in the Pedirka Basin, many of which have intersected coal, none of these have attempted to flow test CBM potential as they were intersecting coal at probably non-commercial depths for CBM exploitation. Central aims to drill an initial 3 CBM test wells this year in its 2008 programme as the first ever flow tests of Permian and Triassic coals in the Pedirka Basin which will focus on flow testing coal above a cut off depth of 1,250m. It is thought that on Central’s permits and application areas, a total of up to 30,000 km² of coal beds up to a cumulative thickness of 60m may exist above this cut-off depth based on previous drilling and approximately 2,000 line km of seismic.

So how much Coal could they have?



Also they have already completed studies for plants and designs etc etc

Independent studies by Holt Campbell and Payton Pty Ltd, consulting engineers, concluded in a pre-feasibility study dated February 2007, that a 140,000 bbl/day plant producing ultra-clean diesel, jet fuel and naphtha fueled by such potential CBM resources could be profitable at any
prevailing oil price over USD$30/bbl provided that the gas could be delivered to the plant at Alice Springs at A$2.20/Gj or less. Later updates of the figures provided in this report indicates a break even oil price of c.USD $40/bbl with gas delivery costs at $2.50/Gj for such a conceptual plant as engineering costs have risen significantly in step with rising oil prices.

While I don't understand this all 100% given how crazy stocks like MEE and LNC have gone over these Coal Gasification or GTL type operations I see no reason why once the mkt fully diggests CTP's potential it may run


May being the key word

 

[blehgg]

Hey guys,


I reckon CTP may go for a run next week

Today they have released a comprehensive report outlining their CBM recoverable resources

Prospective recoverable resources of CBM in Central’s 7 Pedirka Basin permits and applications now stand at 34, 47 and 70 TCFG at “low”, “best” and “high” estimates according to the reports.

May being the key word

Probably off-track.. my apologies..

I wonder how much influence YT has on the market... This forum is read quite alot, and he is well respected, because he backs his comments with research and his track histroy. Quite interesting following his trades around~

Probably a bit off track here YT, but how did you learn the technical side behind analysis? I'm pretty sure I'm still a noob. Did you just read books ~ or is it just years of experience... though YT - young?? how young is young???

 

[Rocket man]

All this talk about coal and CBM is a huge bonus .. but these guys are targetting up to 12 billion .. yes BILLION barrels of OIL and drill is mobilising next week.

lots going on here for CTP and it all should be positive for sp over short term and if they strike oil soon hold on to your hand bags