CTP - Central Petroleum

[Slipperz]

A bit of panic selling this morning pre-empting some bad news.. I note from todays drilling report that they have penetrated the Pioneer sandstones and have stopped drilling - although no announcement to say that they are declaring TD yet.

Anyway, despite the selling, units were soaked up quite well, I was concerned we might see a price collapse and was ready to take advantage of that but it didn't happen.

So, the waiting continues. Hoping you haven't whacked your refresh button to death Slipperz.[/QUOTE

Lol no I've been a bit busy away from the computer this morning.

My stop got hit at .067 cos I figured if the news wasn't good it might go into a death spiral.

A bit over CTP anyways it has made a bunny out of me, given untold angst and delivered nothing to date.

I'll look elsewhere for now good luck to holders!

 

[lemmo]

A bit of panic selling this morning pre-empting some bad news.. I note from todays drilling report that they have penetrated the Pioneer sandstones and have stopped drilling - although no announcement to say that they are declaring TD yet.

Anyway, despite the selling, units were soaked up quite well, I was concerned we might see a price collapse and was ready to take advantage of that but it didn't happen.

So, the waiting continues. Hoping you haven't whacked your refresh button to death Slipperz.[/QUOTE

Lol no I've been a bit busy away from the computer this morning.

My stop got hit at .067 cos I figured if the news wasn't good it might go into a death spiral.

A bit over CTP anyways it has made a bunny out of me, given untold angst and delivered nothing to date.

I'll look elsewhere for now good luck to holders!

Cheer up Slipperz - Google this -(Petroleum systems in the Amadeus Basin: Were they all oil prone?). After you read this you will morgage the wife and maybe the mother inlaw, if alive.

regards Matt

 

[davido]

Any opinions on last nights announcement? I did not think it was totally negative, the gas is obviously there the flow rate is what must be spooking some investers. Fracing I dont know a lot about but it is a common practice to improve flow rates. Hopefully more gas is registered in the lower formations. Anyone with a greater knowledge on gas wells your opinion very welcome.
Coal results due anytime from the 26th onwards.

 

[boronia]

Any opinions on last nights announcement? I did not think it was totally negative, the gas is obviously there the flow rate is what must be spooking some investers. Fracing I dont know a lot about but it is a common practice to improve flow rates. Hopefully more gas is registered in the lower formations. Anyone with a greater knowledge on gas wells your opinion very welcome.
Coal results due anytime from the 26th onwards.

Agreed, the flow rate aint great but because a gas water contact hasn't been found its still open at depth. Frac or acid may improve the flow (the link below indicates fraccing has been successful regionally)

There seemed to be some selling pressure on CTP but I reckon it's still to early to call on this hole

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...eports-on-flow-rates-at-ooraminna-2-8600.html

 

[5haretrader]

The chart looks a bit sick at the moment doesn't it. I wonder what it will take to kick the share price in the right direction? In the next few weeks the following will act on the price in one way or another

• global market sentiment
• Coal report
• Ooraminna 2 announcements

The only one of the above three I have faith in helping the share price in a positive way is the global market sentiment which should pick up with some good company reports from America over the next week or so.

 

[BESBS Player]

G'day CTPers.

After doing some research and consulting Paul the Octopus, I have taken the plunge and taken a position in CTP again. As per usual, I am looking from a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before/during Spud) scenario.


The recent poor results and O2's current uncertainty (at least that is the way the market is pricing CTP at present) has meant that the SP trend has been downward. This is not what I generally like immediately before a BESBS play but I think CTP has a few potentially redeemable features from a BESBS perspective.

At present, the general market has stabilised somewhat. CTP has cash and a rig. Both these are essential in this market.

While O2 results are yet to finalise, the SP has dropped to levels that suggest that the general punters have depreciated the chance of commercial success (maybe unfairly but not surprising in this market). A final P&A might drop the SP slightly but given action ahead, this would be very limited at these already low SP levels. With some luck, O2 might still have a positive outcome but I'm not assuming anything.

In the current BESBS market, you need to have potentially mega quantities of gas, otherwise large oil targets it must be. Johnstone is just what is needed - a potential mega OIL target. This should attract some interest and assuming the market does not embrace the O2 result, still be substantial enough to turn the recent SP trend around.

Finally, the CTP share is near historic low levels. Given the cash and the Johnstone drilling, I'm happy to take a punt and try CTP as a short term BESBS play. CTP has been very kind to me in the past and hopefully shall be again. At this SP, one does not need a huge turnaround to lock in a handy gain.

Hmmm...an early oil show would be handy...hope Paul the Octopus thinks so!!!

 

[lukelee]

I am still holding this stock at the price of 0.160, terrible, isn't it?
0 dividend, negative eps. I don't remember what made me put money on this one.

 

[Putty7]

O-2 reached TD today, wireline and logging should be done shortly after, thankfully this long drawn out drill is over, whatever the result it will be good to head to J-1 and have a go at some oil. Good to see you are still around BESBS, not much BESBS action of late but your tiges are doing well thanks to Jumping Jack.

 

[BESBS Player]

G'day Putty,

Yes, the BESBS plays (largely) dried up in Q2 2010 so I stood asidemostly, apart from buying a few BAS on the cheap. A few BESBS plays are just starting to run now that tax loss sales have finished. I ended up with my highest returns ever but nothing much (close to zero) was contributed in the last 3 months. Still, new FY is off to a good start with MMR.

Agree with sentiment about O-2. The sooner we move onto Johnstone-1, the better. If CTP is to arrest the recent SP falls, it will need an oil target and plenty of attention. Hopefully we will get some attention...

PS. The Bombers are back (don't mention the Tigers last Saturday!)

 

[Putty7]

Drill date for J-1 set.

Road works and drilling pad preparation for the spudding of Johnstone West 1 and the supply of casing and relevant hardware has largely been completed and it is anticipated that the well will spud on or about the 14th August 2010.

They are still over O-2 doing an acid wash on the pioneer and results will follow the outcome of this. Not holding great hopes but a pleasant surprise would be nice, if it is worth fraccing at a later date it will be a better outcome than what it looks at the moment.

SP looks to have held at .055c and may be due to bounce.

Yes Knights appears to have pulled a rabbit out of the hat BESBS, I would still be shorting essendon in any tipping comp for 2010 lol.

 

[adobee]

I have been away for a while but still holding this.. I picked up another 100k at 0.054 this morning.. It is low at the moment which is fair enough as they havent got anything yet but the next drills are the big ones ..

Ooraminna 2 is the first well in a planned 3-4 well programme for 2010 including the 500 MMbbl oil (“high” estimate UOIIP) Johnstone West 1 prospect and the 800 BCFG (“high” estimate UGIIP) and 15 BCF helium (“high” estimate UGIIP) Magee 2 well. Road works and drilling pad preparation for the spudding of Johnstone West 1 and the supply of casing and relevant hardware has largely been completed and it is anticipated that the well will spud on or about the 14th August 2010

I have been waiting about 18 months for these drills .. Johnstone West & Magee will be make or break.. If they come up trumps especially with helium I expect great market reaction.. If they dont my options will be looking worthless.. but its all happening in the next month ..

 

[BESBS Player]

Announcement out today on the ASX.

O-2 flow rates a little better than before but nothing to right home about.

The GOOD NEWS: Johnstone-1 should be getting underway as exepcted by August 14. "500 MMbbl oil (“high” estimate UOIIP) Johnstone West 1 prospect and the 800 BCFG (“high” estimate UGIIP) and 15 BCF helium (“high” estimate UGIIP) Magee 2 well.are about to occur.

SP has risen to 6c this morning on this news.

Disc: holding CTP at 5.7c.

 

[BESBS Player]

ASX announcement out today.

CTP have farmed in to EP97 with Rawson.

While this is fine by me, the real news is fast approaching...the spudding of Johnstone-1 should only be a little over a week away (scheduled to commence around Aug.14).

"500 MMbbl oil (“high” estimate UOIIP) Johnstone West 1 prospect and the 800 BCFG (“high” estimate UGIIP) and 15 BCF helium (“high” estimate UGIIP) Magee 2 well to follow...

While CTP have been on a recent downward SP trend (largely since Christmas), I'm hoping that this oil drilling will turn momentum.


Disc: Holding CTP

 

[Donga]

CTP has been very disappointing over past few months but looks like BESBS has done it again (referring to PEP 11 holding).

Comfortable to have averaged down to around 11c (yeah bought in initially at 16c as well lukelee) and looking forward to recovery over the coming weeks and profits over remainder of 2010.

 

[adobee]

ctp starting to look better.. options are looking good at 2.9 & 3c.. I have bought more this morning.. they will sit pretty until after :

500 MMbbl oil (“high” estimate UOIIP) Johnstone West 1 prospect and the 800 BCFG (“high” estimate UGIIP) and 15 BCF helium (“high” estimate UGIIP) Magee 2 well. Road works and drilling pad preparation for the spudding of Johnstone West 1 and the supply of casing and relevant hardware has largely been completed and it is anticipated that the well will spud on or about the 14th August 2010


I am hoping JH isnt all talk. .

 

[BESBS Player]

Not long now to wait. Assuming no delays, August 14 should see the start of Johnstone-1.

"500 MMbbl oil (“high” estimate UOIIP) Johnstone West 1 prospect and the 800 BCFG (“high” estimate UGIIP) and 15 BCF helium (“high” estimate UGIIP) Magee 2 well to follow...

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the onset of drilling.


Holding CTP @ 5.7c

 

[adobee]

Has held up well last few day and some buying activity starting.. I think it could go well in anticipation however my concern is that unfortunately we have such high estimates that there is a good chance of market disappointment even if we strike gold.. We could come up with 400 MMbbl oil 600 BCFG and 8 BCF helium and the market could say ohh not what they were prediciting we'll dump it rather than saying bonza !

well see what happens..

 

[UPKA]

Has held up well last few day and some buying activity starting.. I think it could go well in anticipation however my concern is that unfortunately we have such high estimates that there is a good chance of market disappointment even if we strike gold.. We could come up with 400 MMbbl oil 600 BCFG and 8 BCF helium and the market could say ohh not what they were prediciting we'll dump it rather than saying bonza !

well see what happens..

with its cash holding valued at 5c/share, how low can it go? the market is pretty much valuing all of CTP's projects @ 1.5c/share, which is <$20m...

 

[BESBS Player]

Interesting Adobee & UPKA.

With tiddlers like CTP, I suspect that psychology will determine much of the initial trading in the case of any success.
Once news is released of 'oil shows' or anything similar, this one shall rocket quickly, simply because no-one would know the size of the target but as it is in largely unexplored territory and the high estimate is so large, many punters will say "why not jump in and see", given the potential reward on offer.

By the time we get to valuing CTP and working out more factual calculations, much of the emotional run shall be over IMHO. It should be a little easier play this stock at that time, if CTP did experience success.

Just watch this space. If CTP get a sniff of black gold early on, this will fly. If nothing, then I'd expect emotions will drive this back to near 5c in a hurry.

Anyway, just my thoughts.

Cheers,
BESBS


Disc: Holding at 5.7c

 

[happytown]

johnstone-1 spudding 14 august or some such thing

can't find any ann re spudding or delay to spudding and it's now 19 august