CTP - Central Petroleum

[idribble]

an extract from a report by Martin Place Securities.

CTP has several quality prospects that could result in 100+ mmboe
discoveries that could each be worth over A$1000m so the success leverage for each discovery is 20 times Central’s A$40-60m market cap.

....The Company has now a portfolio that gives it a virtual monopoly over more than 170,000km² of wholly owned tenements in some of the world’s last onshore 100 million barrel targets.

The tenements include:-


100% of Amadeus Basin outside Santos/Magellan production areas ( this
producing basin has exploration rate of only 5% of world average);


100% of Pedirka Basin tenements (same age and similar geology as nearby
Cooper Basin but is oil prone not gas prone);


100% of Lander Trough (frontier basin with oil shows but no seismic); and


100% of part of Georgina Basin (18 oil wells with many oil shows but no seismic
carried).

The fund raising will drill at least 6 wells (including two appraisal prospects) with max depth of only 2000m targeting 300 MMbls oil, 3,400 BCFG and 100 BCF Helium on targets as follows:

....The two Pedirka wells will be drilled from March 2006, followed by the Johnstone well in the Amadeus Basin. Significant seismic will be undertaken over other targets in all basins.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hmmm I remember that this one struggled to get funds for IPO,

Will put in watchlist, thanks

 

[idribble]

a further snippett from Martin Place Securities

CTP has 100% of several permits covering most of the rest of the Amadeus
and has an initial well-defined 100mmbbl oil target at Johnstone and two
appraisal wells following up previous gas flows from the 1960s. Onshore
targets of this size are now very rare around the world.

 

[idribble]

A little history that may explain the early endeavours of Merlin Petroleum / Central Petroleum .............. from PESA website

Central Petroleum Bets All On NT Basins
In the past 12 months, Central Petroleum Limited (formerly Merlin Petroleum) has undergone major changes in the last year. In addition to the name change, made to reflect the company’s area of focus, there have been changes to the board. New board members include Chairman Dr Henry Askin, who was exploration manager for Shell Development (Australia) from 1990 to 1997 and also headed the Shell International seismic analysis unit in the Hague for three years, as well as Bill Dunmore, a production-based reservoir engineering specialist who has spent a considerable time as a consultant to banks in merger and acquisition analysis.

The company has also pulled out of all of the farm-in deals it had in the Cooper Basin. “We spent a lot of money in attempting to list the combined farm-in deals that we had last year in the Pedirka and Cooper basins as Merlin [Petroleum]”, said Mr Heugh adding they were stymied due to timing issues centred around the farmin deals as well as the London market as a dual listing was attempted. “We felt that we could do better and have negotiated a package deal over practically the entire Amadeus Basin, which surrounds the producing Palm Valley and Mereenie fields … once Australia’s biggest onshore mainland reserves. Subject to the listing of the company, we will be acquiring the whole of the issued shares of two other companies that have the rights over about 85% of the Amadeus Basin, so we’re picking up a package, subject to listing, of about 80,000 km² with two appraisal prospects which have been previously drilled and returned gas to surface as well as a large number of other prospects and leads including the Johnstone oil prospect, targeting Pacoota Sandstone with recoverable numbers of 112 MMbbl upside potential .”

“At this stage we are primarily an exploration company but want to get into production as soon as we can,” he stated about the company’s current acreage, adding that Central is also open to picking up a producing reserve-based asset by acquisition as well as appraisal and exploration. “We would have preferred to have done that before we got to the prospectus stage, but there’s a lot of competition out there for producing assets – they don’t come cheap … With the previous board we were restricted in vision for the acquisition of a reserve-based asset in Australia. They felt that it wasn’t appropriate for the company to get involved in overseas operations, but now with the board we’ve got, although focussed on central Australia, we would no longer restrict ourselves to the Australian scenario if an appropriate reserve based asset became available at the right price.” Mr Heugh said Central would consider acquiring such an asset anywhere in the world provided the price is right and the sovereign risk is low, listing Australia, Europe, North America and Canada as potential areas of interest.
Central intends to raise enough funds (around $20 million Q3 calendar 2005) to drill no less than six wells over the next two years. The company has a capital raising planned for imminent release, and a strategy to initially drill three large oil prospects to help develop an early cash-flow.


Acreage

Amadeus Basin


”The Amadeus Basin is one of the most underexplored [producing] basins in Australia”, stated Mr Heugh. “On our web site we have a comparison of the Cooper, Surat, Perth, Carnarvon and Amadeus basins, which shows that the Amadeus is second in average success rate for hydrocarbons discovered per exploration wells. The Carnarvon leads with 10 MMboe; the Amadeus follows on 4 MMboe; while the Cooper, Perth and Surat Basins are on 2 MMboe, 2 MMboe and 0.1 MMboe, respectively. Another statistic shows that the average total depth of wells in the Amadeus Basin is 1900 m, which is quite shallow compared to other onshore producing basins.”

The basin has had three major petroleum field discoveries – the Dingo field, the Mereenie field and the Palm Valley field – while another 13 wells could be regarded as technical successes, but were not optimised due to poor or non-existent seismic.

“The acquisition of the Amadeus Basin acreage gives Central Petroleum access to four already known prospects which the company will spend a fair bit of money reappraising – including Ooraminna, Waterhouse, Johnson and Mount Kitty , formerly known as Murphy South.”

“We see Ooraminna and Waterhouse as basically 1 Tcf upside prospects and we regard them as appraisal prospects because they have returned gas to surface before”, explained Mr Heugh. “They’re not ranked grass root exploration wells to see if there’s something there, and we know there is, it’s a matter of how much and whether it’s commercial.”

“While Ooraminna was last drilled as far back as in 1963, and has thus not seen the benefits of more advanced and modern technologies, what is regarded as Waterhouse’s primary reservoir has not yet been penetrated – suggesting that both prospects might have larger potential than what previous drilling has indicated.”

The Johnston prospect has got an upside potential P10 of more than 100 MMbbl of recoverable oil but, unlike Ooraminna and Waterhouse, hasn’t been drilled before. Mount Kitty has not been drilled before either. The main targets of this prospect are in the Bitter Springs Formation, sealed very effectively by salt, which has been drilled only once before in the basin. The drilling of Magee-1 50-60 km away from the Mount Kitty prospect returned gas to surface with a high nitrogen content and 6.2% Helium.

“These days, Helium is of course a very valuable commodity on the world stage, it commands a price of US$60-65 per thousand cf versus ordinary sales gas around A$2-3 per thousand cf”, he said. “So if we have a discovery with significant Helium content, it has the potential to add an enormous amount of income to the bottom line of the company.”

Central is in the final stages of negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding with one of the biggest suppliers of Helium on the world stage, BOC International, who recently commissioned the construction of a Helium extraction plant in Darwin. “They’re working with about 0.01% Helium in that gas, were working with 6% in the gas that we hope to find in the Amadeus Basin.”

Pedirka Basin

The other two oil prospects of the three (Johnston is the other) Central Petroleum plans to drill as early as possible, are located in the Pedirka Basin. These prospects are Avalon and Blamore, which are to be drilled back to back. “Existing data has been reprocessed with the assistance of Dr Askin who has identified abundant possible DHIs (direct hydrocarbon indicators). If any of the wells are discoveries we can monetise very quickly by trucking oil across to Alice Springs and then railing it up to Darwin”, explained Mr Heugh. “Avalon and Blamore have been assessed independently as having upside P10 potential recoverable numbers of over 200 MMbbl, so are a priority for the company.


Gas


Although monetising gas in central Australia could be difficult due to a lack of markets, one option could be to take over after Santos and Magellan (the Palm Valley and Mereenie prospect partners who are exporting gas via the Alice to Darwin pipeline) run out of gas. “They’ve got enough gas to supply the current contract until about 2009”, he said. “There are limited amounts of gas drilled reserves in the Amadeus that they can tap into and, subject to listing, shortly Central will control all of the most prospective Amadeus Basin acreage … subject to the listing we’ll acquire about 80-90% of the total acreage in the Amadeus Basin, so there’s no other gas exploration of real substance that Santos and Magellan can move into.” However, this could be as late as 2009 or 2010 and by then some of the offshore discoveries might have been brought on stream to supply Darwin with sales gas.

Central is therefore considering two approaches. The company could “discover a gas reserve of sufficient size to warrant connecting it to the pipeline to Moomba” – this discovery would have to be in the order of 200 Bcf to justify a connection. The other option outlined in a pre-feasibility study by Holt Campbell and Payton, based upon notional gas discovery and conversion by GTL (gas to liquids technology) into syn-fuel of two main types: Low sulphur, low pollution synthetic diesel and jet fuel; with naphtha as a co-product. “All three products could be produced in situ in the Amadeus Basin or anywhere in central Australia close to a rail facility and railed out to either Darwin or Adelaide”, explained Mr Heugh. “Our independent report on this indicates that probably most, if not all, of that product would be absorbed by the domestic market, particularly now that Australia is forecast to be only 40% self-sufficient in oil by the year 2010.”

“There have been a lot of developments in GTL technology and there’s a huge demand for low sulphur diesel throughout the world … and this trend is coming here.” This particular type of diesel is very environmentally friendly and can be mixed with conventional diesel to make reduce pollution at an economical price: “About 20% of syn-fuel diesel will get you inside all of the environmental legislatios that are planned until at least the year 2010. We think that is a very positive development.” Central has also lodged a provisional patent application for the novel application of GTL in central Australia on specific gas reserves.

 

[idribble]

and the second half of the text which I couldn't fit in before .....

Seismic


The existing data for the Pedirka and Amadeus Basins was reprocessed and re-mapped by Troy Ikoda, and Young Geoconsultants. Dr Askin has examined some of the data in detail for DHIs. Approximately 150 to 200 km of seismic was reprocessed over Avalon and Blamore, whereas all the available seismic in the Amadeus Basin was reprocessed in two stages – the first stage was undertaken by the NTGS) as part of an initiative by Young Geoconsultants. “Then we asked Young Geoconsultants to take those results and remap the four prospects that we’re interested in”, he said. “In fact, they remapped half a dozen prospects that we brought down to four prospects that we wanted to drill in the Amadeus.”

In addition to reprocessing existing data, the company wants to acquire additional seismic over the Amadeus acreage. “One of the keys to success in the Amadeus is fracture prediction, so we need more accurate data over the four prospects we’d like to drill”, he explained”, not only to be able to identify the biggest concentration of fractures in the structures, but also because of the enormity of the structures – Mount Kitty is 500 km² of potential closure, Ooraminna and Waterhouse are up to 300 km² and Johnston is 180 km².

“Whereas our Amadeus Basin acreage requires additional seismic before deciding where to drill, in the case of the Avalon and Blamore prospects in the Pedirka Basin, we believe we are ready to drill.” Central is hoping to drill all three oil prospects before July/August next year: “By then we also hope to be gathering more seismic over some of the larger gas prospects in the Amadeus Basin.”


Joint Ventures


Central Petroleum has entered into a Joint Venture with White Sands Petroleum which Mr Heugh said would give the company access to their high-tech, highly mobile hydraulic top-drive rig, in return for an interest in the permit. ”It is capable of drilling to depths of over 3000 m and only takes about 12 truckloads of equipment to get in and set up, thereby saving money on mobilisation and de-mobilisation. The rig also only requires about half the crew of a conventional rig. Of course, the main advantage is … the ability to access a drilling rig at all, which is becoming increasingly difficult”, stated Mr Heugh.

Central was at one stage considering perhaps acquiring a rig of its own, but will continue with the White Sands deal as long as it works to the company’s satisfaction. “These are the sorts of deals we want to do to give us some sort of strategic advantage rather than just simply saving money on exploration, which is good, but it’s not the only reason why we want to do a farm-out deal”.

Under the terms of the farm-out deal White Sands will fund 22.5% of the costs of drilling two wells in EP93 (Avalon and Blamore) to win a 15% interest in the permit, as well as funding 22.5% of one well in EP92 and PLA77 to win 15% of the permits.

Central also has a letter of agreement with Perth-based Terrex Seismic Pty Ltd, who will have a crew available for the company in March or April 2006. “The Alice Springs-based environmental consulting group (Low Consultants ) that know the area and the local people very well, something which is beneficial when it comes to remote acreage such as this will be available around September or October of this year to do the reconnaissance environmental survey”, he said.

Timing is everything

The paper Petroleum Resource Potential of the Amadeus Basin by John Warburton, Titus Murray and Torey Marshall will be presented at the Central Australian Basins Symposium in Alice Springs, August 16th – 18th. “So it’s good timing for us”, claimed Mr Heugh. “It’s certainly going to open a lot of people’s eyes about the Amadeus Basin.”

Central Petroleum has to list by a certain date to acquire the acreage in the Amadeus Basin. In addition to the Amadeus acreage, the company also has two applications in the Lander Trough, one in the Georgina Basin and three in the Pedirka Basin, one of which has been granted. Each of the permits has an individual work program, which increases in expenditure from $100-150,000 in the first year to perhaps
$400-500,000 in the second year, and is a contingent commitment.

“If all the permits are granted at the same time on the day of a succesful float, we have enough money to enable us to evaluate data, drill those six wells and acquire additional seismic.”

Central would then make the decisions on which permits to keep, which to farm out and perhaps which to get rid of. “The first two years of activity will be a major screening process for us to delineate whre we’re likely to have the most success and to bring in other joint venture partners.”

 

[TjamesX]

Dodgy

I wouldn't touch....

There's a reason they struggled to raise money

 

[idribble]

If you know the reason TjamesX ..... then I'm all ears.

I'm not immune to being wrong and bailing out, so any knowledge would be appreciated.

 

[jemma]

I just bought in here, IMO cannot lose at low levels like this.

Drilling due in June/July as per their ann.

Massive upside potential, worth a bet!!

 

[GreatPig]

IMO cannot lose at low levels like this.

IMO famous last words

GP

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

As requested, here's some astroanalysis for CTP.....

This first part was posted earlier, on 06 March 2006,
in the AussieOilers forum:


=====

Up front, no advice here .....

CTP ... let's put this into some historical perspective.

These are the same guys, who promoted the FAILED Merlin
Petroleum float, during the hottest oil market for 30 years!~!

Looking ahead, it may be pumped up initially, with some
good news expected through April 2006, but around 19052006
we may see a high, with some particularly NEGATIVE news
surfacing around that time .....

=====

..... and so CTP has by and large traded, as expected to date.

Technically, it would be good to see CTP make a
confirmed bottom, around 8.5 - 9 cents.

So, let's look a little further out, at more
anticipated key dates for CTP:

30-31052006 ..... minor

02062006 ..... significant and positive news???

19062006 ..... positive spotlight on CTP

22062006 ..... negative and finance-related???

23-26062006 ..... minor news of difficulties here???

14072006 ..... news of changes (board???) here.

17072006 ..... positive and finance-related???

11-24072006 ..... underlying cycle, addressing long-term
changes for CTP???

18-20072006 ..... 2 significant and negative cycles here???

27072006 ..... minor and negative cycle here.

09-11082006 ..... significant financial news and changes,
with 2 difficult cycles here.

21082006 ..... negative spotlight on CTP

25-28082006 ..... significant and negative news???

04-05092006 ..... 2 significant cycles ... difficulties
with finances???

11092006 ..... minor news

20092006 ..... minor cycle.

28092006 ..... minor and finance-related???

2909-02102006 ..... signifcant and positive news???

20-23102006 ..... 3 significant and positive cycles bring
a strong rally ... finance-related ???


10-21 November 2006 - an extremely negative period ???

15112006 ..... significant and negative ... finances??

20112006 ..... negative spotlight on CTP

01-04122006 ..... significant and negative move.

06122006 ..... significant and negative news???

08-11122006 ..... minor and positive.

20122006 ..... CTP in a positive light here???

28122006 ..... minor and positive news to end 2006 ???

-----

Let's hope that this analysis is wrong ... and it could
well be so .... but, the promotion on many forums of this
ipo, by the seed capitalists could well be seen as ramping,
given their track record in the past, with the failed
Merlin ipo.

happy days

yogi

P.S. ... this is NOT advice, but pure speculation and
discussion about a stock, that would seem to have
little going for it, except some potential as a cyclical
trading stock .....



=====

 

[jemma]

Yogi,

Many thanks for such a quick reply.

Hmmmmm, there must be news of a rig booked into drilling, that must be the positive, but not much else it seems. Thanks again.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

..... you have every right to be annoyed with
CTP management, but it really is no
surprise, as this is the same outfit that
failed with their Merlin float, in the hottest
market for oil stocks for 30 years ..... now
you can appreciate why people were really
reluctant to hand over their money to these
wowsers.

And it will be no different, when their
"aide-de-campe" in Merlin scrapes up
enough cash for the NTO float ..... yes,
there will be an initial flurry of interest,
just like CTP, but come mid-Feb 2007, NTO
will also come unstuck ..... big-time ...!~!

So, beware of all this ramping by their
apostles, NTO will have its parallels with
CTP ... difference being CTP is going to
be hit hard, in November 2006 ... and while
they may theoretically be worth 10 cents
right now, any payment towards another rig
was not in the budget, so you may well
see your 5 cent target.

Some analysis can be found in the post above on 28052006,
but briefly, CTP will have us looking for a serious slide:

10-15112006 ... big downmove???

20112006 ... negative spotlight on CTP

01-04122006 ... sharp downmove???

06122006 ... more negative news

08-11122006 ... minor and positive = low?

CTP may then improve somewhat,
in December 2006 and January 2007 ... ???

..... then, if NTO gets started at all, their
reckoning will come with some long-term
changes in February 2007, when they are
in considerable pain ... lol ...

Thank God for true justice ... !~!

happy days

yogi

 

[Geomean]

White Sands Petroleum Farmin Agreement Terminated
Yesterday Central Petroleum Limited filed an announcement in which it "advises that the Heads of Agreement relating to a White Sands Petroleum Limited farmin to Merlin Energy’s permits EPA92, PELA 77 and EP 93 has been terminated for reasons including uncertainties associated with the availability of the White Sands Petroleum Limited drilling rig".

http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/doc...uY2UueWFob28uY29tL2FjYS9kZWxheWVkP3M9Q1RQLkFY

 

[jemma]

I was lucky enough to dump these at 13 cents and get my money back.

What a dog of a stock.

 

[mpv]

Just announced mou for farm in with a newly formed company.
Targetting for helium.

 

[Geomean]

Re: CTP - Central Petroleum--Notes on 1Q07 3B Quarterly Report

This is a company that commissions one study-- then another study. This quarter we have a report on CBM and a report on GTL.

I wish they would keep their eye on the ball.

They are talking about building the biggest GTL facility on planet earth, and they haven't found an ounce of hydrocarbons.

I'd like a report of a rig in the field. I'd like a report of a spud.

The latest quarterly report notes:
"Tenders for the drilling of Blamore #1 with an option to drill Avalon #1 back to back have been suspended pending a decision on the access route."

Cash is down to around 5MM.

They now look like they don't have enough cash to drill two wells. Aargh!

The dilution that is going on is incredible. Today's form 3B filed with the ASX for the period ending 3/30/07 reflects 139MM shares outstanding, and 68MM of unattached options to purchase @ $0.20 to $0.25. This is up from 78.2 MM shares outstanding, and 38.3MM [free] unattached options to purchase @ $0.20 in March 06.

In other words, fully diluted shares went from 116.3MM to 207MM shares!! WOW!! And I can find no explanation or value received for this kind of dilution.

In addition, CTP farmed out 25% of its top helium prospects to He Nuclear Limited whereby He Nuclear can earn 25% of the EP125 Mt Kitty Prospect Block and the EP82 Magee Prospect Block. The terms of the agreement include He Nuclear funding 50% of pre-drilling seismic and the drilling of a well on each Prospect Block to earn a 25% participating interest in each of the blocks.

While the geological work on file is extensive, this is no way to get a junior up and running. More dilution or reductions in their mineral interests appear likely.

 

[Geomean]

Yesterday's announcement regarding operations was most distressing.

They don't have access to the drill site.

They have sought Federal help, so apparently there is an impass.

They say that they are talking to farm in partners

If there is another farm in, then the asset base will be further diluted

They say that they are talking about raising more capital.

Even more dilution.

The initial offering buyers are so underwater and more is to come.

They've suspended trying to get a rig, because they can't get the rig there.

The news is just terrible.

I don't care how many geology and other studies they carry out.

What matters is getting things done.

They still aren't close, and now cash has been drawn down to the point that they won't be able to drill more than one well.

OUCH!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hmmm I remember that this one struggled to get funds for IPO,

Will put in watchlist, thanks

They were knocked back by Pato's and Haartleys from memory when they went to do IPO, Martin Place picked up the slack.

Martin Place have a great track record of pulling rabbits out of the hat, but given they were kb'd by 2 good brokers I always just watched CTP

 

[ongchuan]

Anyone checking this out? It was mentioned in the MSN Bulletin and MiningNews Net. What do you guys think bout this? Got lots of tenements for drilling. Any potential??

 

[moneymajix]

Gasbagging with confidence

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

We've passed the 100% gain mark for the year - and we could be on to a gusher with our decision to buy into Australia's best gas-for-oil prospect.
Last week's market shakeout delivered a great opportunity to buy Central Petroleum Ltd (ASX code: CTP) ahead of a roadshow beginning in Sydney this week to talk up the stock to potential investors.


Central has a top-rated board and is the biggest onshore hydrocarbons tenement holder in Australia. Its prospective ground totals 230,000sq km covering the Amadeus and Pedirka basins, which straddle the southern part of the Northern Territory from the Queensland border into Western Australia.



So far, 200 drilling targets have been identified, but for decades this vast region has been sparsely explored because there was no viable gas reserves market. That is about to change with record high oil prices likely to open the way for a gas-to-liquids (GTL) conversion plant to transform the commercial potential of the region.

It's expected the company needs to raise $10m over the next 12 months to drill up to six wells on targets with a hopeful upside of 300 million barrels of recoverable oil to establish an early cashflow. That's why managing director John Heugh is doing the rounds in Sydney this week with the support of enthusiastic stockbroking backer Martin Place Securities.

Heugh is a petroleum geologist previously with Santos, Ampolex, WMC and Kufpec. Chairman Dr Henry Askin is a geophysicist and former Shell Australia exploration director and Shell global seismic manager. Other directors are Bill Dunmore (a reservoir engineer turned banker with HBOS, Rothschild, Dresdner Kleinwort, Unocal and BHP) and accountant-company secretary Richard Faull.

Central Petroleum listed on the ASX in March, 2006, having started putting together its land package in 1998, when oil was $US12 a barrel and there was no competition for the remote area. Its tenements surround the Santos-Magellan-operated Mereenie oilfield and their declining Palm Valley gasfield. Those companies hold zero exploration acreage in the area.

Central's tenements are assessed as having potential to yield more than 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent. If this is proved, a pre-feasibility study suggests a 140,000bls per day GTL plant could operate for 50 years with a projected break-even at $US30 a barrel, less than half current prices.

At 20.5c Central carries a market capitalisation of $31.4m and has $5.5m in remaining cash after spending nearly $3m on recent seismic surveys. If its projections stack up, it should have no trouble attracting majors to farm-in.


From The Speculator in The Bulletin.