CSS - Clean Seas Seafood

[Basilica]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Sorry, I meant truevalue because he seemed to know things that weren't released yet. you can't post less than 100 characters here. that's why i left the quotation tags out.
they might offer you more pay once the revenues are flowing in. but hopefully you'll stay invested till then and won't need to work anymore

Thats OK Fi$h i have nothing to hide. I acually started laughing when i heard the wage they were offering and no options included either (It was in the hatchery so the job would of been cool). i m past the idea of a job now, Hope to buy a yact over the nex year and sail the world.

I was also curious where the
"I have been told they now have fingerlings of 5cm"
size came from.

Cheers

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

The March quarterly cash flow report looks pretty impressive. What do you think Truevalue, Fi$h, Basiilica?

It looks like the YTK sales are really starting to ramp up , excuse the pun.
Hagen is providing a temporary line of credit whilst they determine the scope of the Cap raisiing, This is very prudent, in my opinion, but I don't think much of the Stehr group funds will be drawn down if YTK sales continue to grow at the present rate.
I was very anxious to see the SBT business succeed but it has always been as equally as important, for me , to see YTK business succeed.
TGR are proof that you can succeed with aquaculture products once you achieve economy of scale. CSS have reached that milestone with YTK , it should only get better from now on as they increase biomass.

 

[FI$H]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

If I'm not mistaken they've secured a 5 million $ credit to delay capital raising . The management is apparently very confident the stock will trade higher soon! I'd really hate to see a stock dilution at this point of time to be honest.

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

If I'm not mistaken they've secured a 5 million $ credit to delay capital raising . The management is apparently very confident the stock will trade higher soon! I'd really hate to see a stock dilution at this point of time to be honest.

Gee that was quick Fi$h! I'd only just stopped typing!

Yes, this will allow more time to determine the scale and timing of the Cap raising but I think that it is very appropriate for the time being.
The market needs time to value CSS on the basis of the YTK news and the pending SBT update.
It may take some time for this to " sink in" but the market will reflect these values accordinlgy. If the SBT update is very poistive I would expect to see a material re-evaluation of CSS.

 

[FI$H]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

the net operating cash flow has been reduced from -12.9 million to -12.1 million for the whole year. To break-even (or have a small loss as they announced) they have to sell ~4000t at a 3$ per kg margin in the coming quarter. is this realistic or am i missing something?

 

[truevalue]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

the net operating cash flow has been reduced from -12.9 million to -12.1 million for the whole year. To break-even (or have a small loss as they announced) they have to sell ~4000t at a 3$ per kg margin in the coming quarter. is this realistic or am i missing something?

Yes you are mising something. Operating cashflow is not profit. Operating cashflow will significantly lag profit in a growing business because Cleanseas is having to invest in growing out its biomass today that it will sell tomorrow. So while sales today may be 3000t pa CSS is growing 5000t and this means that they make a profit on the 3000t but the extra 2000t in production is eating up cashflow that will not be recouped until that fish is eventually sold. this is called working capital drain.

I was very happy to see operating cash flow positive for the quarter after a few quarters of very negative numbers. This means that sales revenue is starting to catch up to cash outlays in production and some of the pressure is taken off the reliance on bank debt.

Obviously when the tuna is being grown out operating cashflow will be very negative for a number of years.

 

[FI$H]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

sorry, i'm a little bit tired. i noticed something was fishy when i compared it to the march quarterly 2008. revenues are up from 5.5 million (march 2008) to 8.8 million (march quarter 2009). the next quarter should be significantly stronger (june quarterly 2008 7.2 million).

 

[truevalue]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

sorry, i'm a little bit tired. i noticed something was fishy when i compared it to the march quarterly 2008. revenues are up from 5.5 million (march 2008) to 8.8 million (march quarter 2009). the next quarter should be significantly stronger (july quarter 2008 7.2 million).

Yes european spring/summer is the biggest selling period for CSS so the final quarter should show some nice sales numbers (and profits).

I think the capital raising will probably be relatively small as the board is aware the shares are undervalued. I would imagine a 1 for 8 or 1 for 7 rights issue with maybe an institutional placement. Say $10-15m all up. I think that would do them for the next 12 months anyway.

 

[FI$H]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

they say they need 100 million for three years of SBT grow-out. does the grow out require a third of that every year or will it increase gradually (i.e. 20 million 2010, 30 million 2011, 50 million 2012)?

 

[nickmyszkowski77]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

hey all...i only just joined ASF and considering to invest for the first time...obviously in CSS...in sayin that hopefully this isnt too stupid of a question...but i was just wonderin whilst lookin at the price history chart for CSS on the ASX website it shows that in the beginning of april the stock was valued in the high 70c range but then fell to the mid 50c range...

anyways i really wana start lol...start understanding what goes on with stock exchange and how to make smart investments etc....

my question is why did it make that fall? only to really return to the same price within,what looks like, less than 2 weeks...

thanks everyone

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

hey all...i only just joined ASF and considering to invest for the first time...obviously in CSS...in sayin that hopefully this isnt too stupid of a question...but i was just wonderin whilst lookin at the price history chart for CSS on the ASX website it shows that in the beginning of april the stock was valued in the high 70c range but then fell to the mid 50c range...

anyways i really wana start lol...start understanding what goes on with stock exchange and how to make smart investments etc....

my question is why did it make that fall? only to really return to the same price within,what looks like, less than 2 weeks...

thanks everyone

Nic,

The answers to your questions are covered in earlier posts. I suggest you carefully read comments and information on this thread in addition to the ASX announcements. Furthermore, the CSS website provides abundant information on CSS's activities.
I also susggest you do you own research and understand what you are investing in, if you decide to buy , and don't rely on the opinions of myself or others on this forum.

Good luck!

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Fi$h / Truevalue,

The headline number for me was Revenue. This is increasing dramatically from previous quarters. If Revenue doesn't increase then everthing else is irrelevant, to a degree. They are obviously succeeding with their marketing drive and increased YTK biomass.

Here's how I see it:

Mar 08 Rev - 5491
Mar 09 Rev - 8768

Jun 08 Rev - 7160
Predcited Rev Jun 09 - 11486


The predicted Rev has been calculated on a linear scale, I actually think it is increasing exponentially and wouldn't be surprised to see it well above this figure.
As Truevalue pointed out, profit numbers will lag initial increases in Revenue.
It's all heading in the right direction ,in my view, and is very similar to TGR a few years ago with Salmon sales and biomass increases.

I agree with Truevalue, Cap raising will be incremental , so around 10-15M this time.

 

[truevalue]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

they say they need 100 million for three years of SBT grow-out. does the grow out require a third of that every year or will it increase gradually (i.e. 20 million 2010, 30 million 2011, 50 million 2012)?

I think i have said before that I think they will probably raise around $60m in equity over the next 3 years. $30m of the $100m will come from debt facilities and $10m from governmant grants.

They will not need much money until commercialisation so lets say $10-15m now for tanks and debt reduction, $25m next year for feed, boats and cages, and $20-$25m in 2012.

 

[nickmyszkowski77]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Nic,

The answers to your questions are covered in earlier posts. I suggest you carefully read comments and information on this thread in addition to the ASX announcements. Furthermore, the CSS website provides abundant information on CSS's activities.
I also susggest you do you own research and understand what you are investing in, if you decide to buy , and don't rely on the opinions of myself or others on this forum.

Good luck!

Hey thanks for the reply oracle...ive looked backk at the posts and ASX announcements around when the fall happened...and all i culd find is the trading halt...so was the tradin halt the reason the stock price went down? wuldnt it just stay the same?
thx

 

[FI$H]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Nick,

stock prices at low volume are meaningless. Volumes are usually up after news/rumors/insider knowledge. for you as an investors it can mean that you can buy the stock well below value when volumes are low but it also means that you have to sell it well below value if you desperately need cash. some institutional investors (UBS) ceased to be substantial holders last year because of the economy putting pressure on CSS for no fundamental reasons.

 

[nickmyszkowski77]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Nick,

stock prices at low volume are meaningless. Volumes are usually up after news/rumors/insider knowledge. for you as an investors it can mean that you can buy the stock well below value when volumes are low but it also means that you have to sell it well below value if you desperately need cash. some institutional investors (UBS) ceased to be substantial holders last year because of the economy putting pressure on CSS for no fundamental reasons.

okay i understnad that now thanks...im just goin out ona limb now but, is there like a general rule of thumb about the Volumes?ie rite now CSS Volumes are at 298,957...is that big?or is that small?....or does this change withe very company?

hopefully u get wat im askin

thanks

 

[Basilica]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

The headline number for me was Revenue. This is increasing dramatically from previous quarters. If Revenue doesn't increase then everthing else is irrelevant, to a degree. They are obviously succeeding with their marketing drive and increased YTK biomass.

Here's how I see it:

Mar 08 Rev - 5491
Mar 09 Rev - 8768

Jun 08 Rev - 7160
Predcited Rev Jun 09 - 11486


The predicted Rev has been calculated on a linear scale, I actually think it is increasing exponentially and wouldn't be surprised to see it well above this figure.

Thats not how i see it Oarcal

The March 09 - 876K revenue. This quater was the period they stopped producing Mulloway. Although not overly profitable they would have sold all their mulloway stocks live / market that would increase revenue for the quater possibly buy a larger amount than Mullaway contributed to the previous quater. But anyway the no longer produce mullaway so it is a one off contributer. We have not been told the sales $ of this fish for this Q.

On cash flow topic the 500,000 grant is also a one off so if you remove the 500k and the unknown value of mulloway it may be no better than March 08 revenue and a loss or breakeven. And next Q may be no better using your projection method. Have i misunderstood the figures?

 

[FI$H]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

okay i understnad that now thanks...im just goin out ona limb now but, is there like a general rule of thumb about the Volumes?ie rite now CSS Volumes are at 298,957...is that big?or is that small?....or does this change withe very company?

hopefully u get wat im askin

thanks

70 000 change owners on a typical day.
200 - 300 000 are normal for periods shortly after or before big news.
500 000 - 1 million when there are breaking news

 

[Basilica]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Thats not how i see it Oarcal

The March 09 - 876K revenue. This quater was the period they stopped producing Mulloway. Although not overly profitable they would have sold all their mulloway stocks live / market that would increase revenue for the quater possibly buy a larger amount than Mullaway contributed to the previous quater. But anyway the no longer produce mullaway so it is a one off contributer. We have not been told the sales $ of this fish for this Q.

On cash flow topic the 500,000 grant is also a one off so if you remove the 500k and the unknown value of mulloway it may be no better than March 08 revenue and a loss or breakeven. And next Q may be no better using your projection method. Have i misunderstood the figures?


I have 2 corrections to make to the above statement.

1 Sorry i misspelt you name Oracle, I am a lazy typist, and there is no spell check.

2 Revenue was $8768 K not the $876K i said

But the conclusion is the same, I think it is important to remove 1 off items in revenue when you project forward to estimate future earnings, But i welcome any opinions that differ from my theory.

 

[truevalue]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

I have 2 corrections to make to the above statement.

1 Sorry i misspelt you name Oracle, I am a lazy typist, and there is no spell check.

2 Revenue was $8768 K not the $876K i said

But the conclusion is the same, I think it is important to remove 1 off items in revenue when you project forward to estimate future earnings, But i welcome any opinions that differ from my theory.

Firstly would only say that the $8768k does not include the grant you mention. The grant is reported seperately. So oracles numbers are correct as they stand.

Second the grant is not a one off. You will find that CSS will receive many millions in government grants over the next few years as they continue their R&D efforts.

Thirdly I think the sales of Mulloway would not have made up more than 5% of sales - so not that significant and the fact that they stop production of mulloway simply means more kingfish can be grown and sold with the capacity released so sales are unlikely to be affected by the mulloway discontinuing.