CSR - CSR Limited

[sangshim]

yeah, theres about 912.29 million CSr shares, so;

3.87/912.29 = 0.32 = 32 EPS

current consesnsus is 29 EPS for 2007 ist only 10% improvement but not much. Also look at 2008/2009 very little growth left? what did ML say about 2008/2009 profit forecast?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 27.4 29.8 32.8 33.5
DPS 15.0 17.0 18.0 19.7

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-07 29.8 12.0 8.8%
Year Ending 30-03-08 32.8 10.9 10.1%

thx

MS

Aren't you supposed to divide the profit by the no of shares rather than share price by the no of shares?

 

[michael_selway]

Aren't you supposed to divide the profit by the no of shares rather than share price by the no of shares?

Yeah typo sorry!

292/912.29 = 0.32 = 32 EPS

 

[michael_selway]

Merrill Lynch upgraded CSR Limited to Buy in early May at $3.87. ML were impressed by the raising of the 2007 profits forecast to $292 million from $258 million.

Http://www.mysharetrading.com/2006/05/04/merrill-lynch-csr-ltd-csr-recommendation.htm

The fall in Aluminium pirce (increasing LME suppllies) will hurt CSR's EPS

Sugar also down to 15c a pound (beacuse OIl price hasnt skyrocketed

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 27.4 29.8 33.6 33.5
DPS 15.0 17.0 18.0 19.7

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-07 29.8 11.2 8.8%
Year Ending 30-03-08 33.6 9.9 12.8%


thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Fungal disease hits CSR sugar prospects: http://thecouriermail.news.com.au/story/0,20797,19509912-3122,00.html

 

[noirua]

Reports on Bloomberg, about increased sugar prices and their likely impact on CSR, improves the outlook after some negative press lately.

 

[noirua]

Prospects remain good for the biggest Aussie in Ethanol as CSR develops its new plant.

 

[noirua]

M & G Investment Management ( owned by Prudential Group, UK ) have increased their substantial holding in CSR from 6.01% to 7.09%.

 

[noirua]

CSR begin their buy-back period on 26th July 06 and complete on 25th July 07. The intention is to buy-back 45,818,466 shares - 5% of shares in issue.

 

[noirua]

$3.53 as CSR regain confidence. The buy-back and the strong price of oil should give the stock a real bio-ethanol bounce.

 

[noirua]

CSR appear to be neither a building stock or a resources stock, with prospects for building and ethanol creating a push and pull situation. Should hold their ground well and prove a solid hold, with ethanol prospects set to give CSR a more bullish tone in turbulent markets.

 

[noirua]

$3.53 as CSR regain confidence. The buy-back and the strong price of oil should give the stock a real bio-ethanol bounce.

No bio-ethanol bounce, as many companies are struggling to make a profit, so far. The buy-back has just started and should give a much needed floor to the share price.

 

[Fab]

What is the interest of participating in CSR buy back ??

 

[noirua]

No bio-ethanol bounce, as many companies are struggling to make a profit, so far. The buy-back has just started and should give a much needed floor to the share price.

The buy-back continues, nearly 500,000 shares a day, so far. Have bought a few more shares despite having read this one wrong recently. Why the stock has fallen back so far surprises me, hope there's not something I'm missing.

 

[noirua]

$3.31 this morning as CSR appear to be recovering.

 

[michael_selway]

$3.31 this morning as CSR appear to be recovering.

Approaching fair value, or fwd terminal PE of 10, about $3.10

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 27.4 29.7 31.5 31.3
DPS 15.0 17.0 18.0 19.9

thx

MS

 

[dutchie]

Nothing flash there Michael.

Yield of about 5-6%.

Cheers

Dutchie

 

[barney]

Approaching fair value, or fwd terminal PE of 10, about $3.10

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 27.4 29.7 31.5 31.3
DPS 15.0 17.0 18.0 19.9

thx

MS

I'm only new here and still a beginner with charts etc. but I figure if I put my opinions out there for people to judge, then it is kinda putting my money where my mouth is so to speak

Here goes: I think the chart on CSR looks to give a hint of possible reverse I like the rate of change (price) spiking off the bottom on good volumes and the ADM (negative) Index starting a downturn. Also the Bollinger curve has "opened its mouth" with an initial downturn. From what I read, this initial downturn is often a "false" signal with the sp often reversing Yesterday's sp did reverse a little (Monday or Tuesday will probably tell the story better)
I reckon CSR back to $3.15 before end of next week (unless of course the market in general fails)

Any comments from you guys who are way more experienced than I am, as to whether I am making sense, and/or are there other factors I should be looking at to give me a better assessment?? Cheers to all

 

[Porper]

I'm only new here and still a beginner with charts etc. but I figure if I put my opinions out there for people to judge, then it is kinda putting my money where my mouth is so to speak

Here goes: I think the chart on CSR looks to give a hint of possible reverse I like the rate of change (price) spiking off the bottom on good volumes and the ADM (negative) Index starting a downturn. Also the Bollinger curve has "opened its mouth" with an initial downturn. From what I read, this initial downturn is often a "false" signal with the sp often reversing Yesterday's sp did reverse a little (Monday or Tuesday will probably tell the story better)
I reckon CSR back to $3.15 before end of next week (unless of course the market in general fails)

Any comments from you guys who are way more experienced than I am, as to whether I am making sense, and/or are there other factors I should be looking at to give me a better assessment?? Cheers to all

First of all I am no expert on indiators, although I believe we can always find a indicator that suits what we "want" to see.

MACD is showing positive divergence, yet Money flow isn't.I prefer price action, and that is plain to see.

Thursday had a big down day on huge volume, finishing the day almost on the lows.Friday as you say had even larger volume but finished the day in the mid range for the day, also it is a very tight range which to me implies that there are still a lot of sellers around, selling into the attempted bounce from the day before.

Also, it has broken down from the channel since June, another bearish sign.

Monday will probably be positive for the ASX as the DOW had a good over night rise, but if I had to pick, I would have to slant towards a slight re-test of the old channel, then a strong down move.

My win percentage is less than 50%, so what would I know.

 

[barney]

First of all I am no expert on indiators, although I believe we can always find a indicator that suits what we "want" to see.

MACD is showing positive divergence, yet Money flow isn't.I prefer price action, and that is plain to see.

Thursday had a big down day on huge volume, finishing the day almost on the lows.Friday as you say had even larger volume but finished the day in the mid range for the day, also it is a very tight range which to me implies that there are still a lot of sellers around, selling into the attempted bounce from the day before.

Also, it has broken down from the channel since June, another bearish sign.

Monday will probably be positive for the ASX as the DOW had a good over night rise, but if I had to pick, I would have to slant towards a slight re-test of the old channel, then a strong down move.

My win percentage is less than 50%, so what would I know.

Thanks Porper for your analysis. I am trying to digest all you have said. As I say I am still learning, so I'll take what youve said on board and keep watching over the next few days to try and put some order into what happens. I appreciate what you say about the "tight range" for friday, but perhaps this would be expected after such a large drop the day before (the fact that it recovered at all kinda says to me that there is a "possibility" a quick reversal???...just guessing)
I see what you mean about the bearish drop since June (missed that).......I remember reading somewhere about always look at the "bigger picture." I guess that sooner or later the bearish drop will hopefully reverse, (stocks "usually" dont go down forever....touch wood) I guess I am looking more short term at the CSR chart (trading as opposed to investing) Thanks again, Barney
PS Which money flow indicator is the best to use?? (I've heard Twiggs is good)

 

[Porper]

Thanks Porper for your analysis. I am trying to digest all you have said. As I say I am still learning, so I'll take what youve said on board and keep watching over the next few days to try and put some order into what happens. I appreciate what you say about the "tight range" for friday, but perhaps this would be expected after such a large drop the day before (the fact that it recovered at all kinda says to me that there is a "possibility" a quick reversal???...just guessing)
I see what you mean about the bearish drop since June (missed that).......I remember reading somewhere about always look at the "bigger picture." I guess that sooner or later the bearish drop will hopefully reverse, (stocks "usually" dont go down forever....touch wood) I guess I am looking more short term at the CSR chart (trading as opposed to investing) Thanks again, Barney
PS Which money flow indicator is the best to use?? (I've heard Twiggs is good)

Barney,

I use Twiggs money flow as I use incredible charts, also this indicator takes into account gaps, where as the Chaikin doesn't.I use it quite a bit and find it to be correct more often than not (for type A divergence.) For trend reversals, you can use RSI, MACD or the slow stochastic, they should give more or less the same results.

Like I said though I am not a great believer in indicators, and they can contradict each other quite a bit.After practice you can look at a chart and get the picture without needing indicators that much in my view.