Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Credit Suisse collapse rumours

I will take the under.

Banking and investment banking is very different now from the GFC, many lessons in fact have been learned.

I think forward returns on ex-AU investment banks (where valuations are already rich) will be above benchmark and they have strong tailwinds with both rising rates and volatile rates.

I think investment banks are oversold on GFC fears from people who don't understand anything and could offer strong upside surprise.

I do not believe either CS or DB will fail.

I got a notification that @Dona Ferentes laughed at my post with the benefit of hindsight, but I stand by my bet at the time where I was the only person on this forum willing to take the under against utter hysteria that happened to be the literal low for ex-AU investment banks with fantastic returns thanks to rising and volatile rates.

And CS the rumours were just that! Unfounded rumours, promulgated on Twitter, retracted by the journalist who made them 6 months ago.

DB is still up 35% off the Oct hysteria even after the recent woes, CS did not fail it was forced into merger at gunpoint by Swiss FINMA.

Other investment banks like BARC, HSBA, JPM, up 10-30%, UCG up nearly 70%, etc.

EUFN rallied 45% off the lows and still up 30% off the lows today.

1680135439464.png
 
The collapse of Credit Suisse highlights the way the US red reserve looks after its own.
The table below is from the Fed Reserve Stress test which gave a clean bill of health to all the listed banks, their capital ratios, just great, they are robust etc etc.
And yet, sitting there in top third of the table is Credit Suisse.
Mick
1688077303504.png
 
Top