- Joined
- 19 May 2010
- Posts
- 93
- Reactions
- 4
Hmm, that was quite a fall today, another one like that and I'm gonna start feeling toey! ...
Correction or fall?
- Thread starter princeplanet
- Start date
Sorry craft I made a decision to not talk about this stuff on ASF and deleted it.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,467
- Reactions
- 1,469
Watching the box on the weekend a US based Aussie economist pointed out that US Govt issued bonds are paying next to nothing in yield and yet are in demand....the Govt is having no trouble finding buyers of Bonds that yield almost nothing.
Conclusion is that the world is happy with this situation...so it can continue for a substantial time into the future.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,440
- Reactions
- 6,442
Truth is the world have met at many summits and understand the ramifications if funds cannot be raised.
No yield or no economy ----
That goes for any Govts bond issues.
Not just the worlds biggest economy.
- Joined
- 11 September 2008
- Posts
- 844
- Reactions
- 0
Many are still underestimating the US at the moment.
Shale gas has changed the whole landscape. It's cheap to extract and the US has huge reserves. By some estimates the US is now a net exporter of gas. Europe barely started investing in the technology to extract shale so they are a long way behind.
Add that unemployment is at sustainable levels (whilst slowly declining) and there are no more wars in the horizon. Things may not be rosy but they are by no means dire.
Shale gas has changed the whole landscape. It's cheap to extract and the US has huge reserves. By some estimates the US is now a net exporter of gas. Europe barely started investing in the technology to extract shale so they are a long way behind.
Add that unemployment is at sustainable levels (whilst slowly declining) and there are no more wars in the horizon. Things may not be rosy but they are by no means dire.
tinhat
Pocket Calculator Operator
- Joined
- 1 May 2009
- Posts
- 1,756
- Reactions
- 768
Hi Julia, I wasn't involved in the share market during GFC except that I got the task of taking over the family SMSF around about the bottom of the market. Up until then my mother had been listening to her accountant and her old bank manager (family friend) who said - hold tight and don't worry. I hand't wanted to put my super into the family SMSF while my father was running it and had my super with Australian Super fund.
So no one was at the helm of the SMSF during GFC I. I consider the post tsunami mini-crash up to mid-2012 as the GFC II (the european debt crisis versions one and two). It was for me anyway, I didn't do a very good job of capital preservation, especially with the mining stocks. Can you believe I still own MCE shares - I don't even consider them part of the portfolio anymore.
And here we are on a nice bull run. Some of the portfolio management decisions I am taking are to do with personal circumstances. I need to pull some money out of the market because we are still throwing money into building a house. I've been delaying that while we have been on this current bull run.
With regard to CBA, I think there may be other opportunities. As I mentioned, perhaps buying back in on a pull-back. But I am also thinking that now that it is ex-div, waiting to see if there is an opportunity to enter one of the other three of the big four, because they all don't go ex-dividend until early June and CBA goes ex-div again early August. I am considering a strategy to move some money between CBA and the other banks to do a bit of dividend chasing.
I don't have any stop-loss conditional orders in with my broker at the moment.
Looking at CBA, if it pulls back but turns around before or at $64 I would think about putting a little bit more back in with a target of $70 otherwise, I would probably consider $58 my stop loss for total liquidation. If the price gets to $70 I would probably sell off quite a bit more.
BHP is only just worth the $35 it is trading for at the moment. I sold down last week. If BHP gets to $38 I will sell some more. If it gets to $40 I'll be all out.
I've taken profit on CBA, BHP, RCG, ILU and HZN in the last two weeks. I've done some short term trading for the first time in a long time too and taken some positions, such as in FGE with short term priced targets.
Anyway, this is a bit of a ramble. I'm not really answering your question. Let's put it this way, I think the market will go higher but I'm not willing to bet everything on that outcome. The XAO might get to somewhere between 5200-5400. I think
Your question is interesting. Where would I put a sell signal onto the XAO that signalled sell everything? The 200 day moving average is below 4500. That is a long way away! I would probably look for a 10 week MA, 30 week MA death cross to sell everything that wasn't a long term income stock. But right now that death cross would show up a long way away from where we are so that might be too loose. Does anyone else have ideas on where they would place a sell everything stop loss on the XAO?
- Joined
- 10 March 2009
- Posts
- 464
- Reactions
- 475
When the 10EMA crosses the 30EMA using a weekly chart on the XAO
Suggest back testing this and it does give a rough guide. There are many other approaches to try to find the top. Nobody knows where this will end and you cannot just give a number.
My opinion only and I get it wrong on many occassions
Suggest back testing this and it does give a rough guide. There are many other approaches to try to find the top. Nobody knows where this will end and you cannot just give a number.
My opinion only and I get it wrong on many occassions
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,990
- Reactions
- 19,083
I use similar EMA(Close,10) crossing MA(Close,15))and seems to trigger at more or less the same time as Iggy_pop one
But I stay in, I just tighten stop loss
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
- Joined
- 1 November 2006
- Posts
- 4,636
- Reactions
- 3
I'm even more bullish for the main reason stated above.
We've been getting big running gap ups on the markets.
Markets and heavyweights are breaking out.
And we've got a whole heap of people still cautious and out of the market.
Not to say I'm not going to sell with a hint of a move.
But it's a great time to move out of some under performers IMO.
We've been getting big running gap ups on the markets.
Markets and heavyweights are breaking out.
And we've got a whole heap of people still cautious and out of the market.
Not to say I'm not going to sell with a hint of a move.
But it's a great time to move out of some under performers IMO.
Julia
In Memoriam
- Joined
- 10 May 2005
- Posts
- 16,986
- Reactions
- 1,973
In line with the majority of 'experts' throughout Australia. There were a few exceptions, eg Satyajit Das, whose lucid views first sparked my concern about the coming debacle.
Does that mean you now regard capital preservation as a priority?
OK, so an active strategy of protecting your profits.
Not a ramble at all. Just the sort of comment I was looking for. Thank you for interesting and comprehensive response to my question which I do not mean to be intrusive.
I'm interested that you, Iggypop and qldfrog have all nominated a point on a chart as the trigger to sell everything, ie a purely technical signal.
Thinking back to my decision to sell everything at the start of 2008, I was certainly conscious of having already given back some profits, but probably even more influenced by the increasing ferocity of what looked like all the ingredients of a global storm. Never believed the glib assurances of so many 'experts ' and talking heads here that Australia was 'decoupled' from America's sub prime mess, and that was before we all became aware of the proliferation of all those dodgy derivative products which emanated from the bad mortgages.
Even as the market fell away, perhaps largely out of self interest, we heard day after day 'advisers' telling people to hang in there, their dividends were still safe etc etc, and the market would quickly recover. Well, hmm, we're still waiting for it to get anywhere near the previous highs.
So I have little faith in all the economists et al who are currently telling us it's all upside from here, that confidence has returned etc etc. On what basis? Some marginal improvements in figures from the US?
Whilst Europe is still a basket case and parts, eg Italy, a political farce?
To me, the GFC was a logical event. Perhaps I'm just constitutionally negative but I cannot see the foundation on which the current global rally is built. Certainly, in Australia the fall off in interest rates has led to cash seeking a more profitable home in high yield good quality stocks, but is that alone enough to explain the rise in the last few months? I'm not convinced.
tinhat
Pocket Calculator Operator
- Joined
- 1 May 2009
- Posts
- 1,756
- Reactions
- 768
Capital Preservation can be a motherhood statement. As can "noone ever goes broke taking a profit", "the trick to profiting in the stock market is to know why you bought a stock and staying disciplined". No once car argue with these statements, but do we know how to adhere to them or even how to implement these objectives? It's quite easy as a novice to get caught in your emotions and caught in the headlights.
Capital preservation would have to be the number one objective when investing for all of us surely. Yet by investing in stocks we know we are taking on risk with an expectation of receiving a premium return so we are willing to risk fluctuations in the market value of our capital with the expectation that we will be able to manage the risk and take corrective action when needed. Its not as easy to do in real time though because we (or at least I) cannot predict the market.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,440
- Reactions
- 6,442
Let me be a little cynical
Smart money selling into dumb money.
The big guys can't do it in a bear market.
They can now!
Smart money selling into dumb money.
The big guys can't do it in a bear market.
They can now!
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,990
- Reactions
- 19,083
As Julia and probably you tech/a, I do not see much reason behind the current rise but maybe a default one: no real other choice as RE is stagnant as best and cash does not return much.
debt still there,western powers going down, climate change here( whether or not man induced, that does not really matter: more floods, fires and cyclones hit on economies) and cheap oil not so cheap anymore
The problem is: what do you do?
I always remember not taking the first Telstra share offer awhile back, after arriving in australia: I had worked in telco, telstra was not worth that amount, yet th erest is history, I was right but lost money (or did not make money)
however good (and right) your reasons not to, sometimes it makes $ sense to follow the lemmings...
So the question becomes when to jump out to avoid the inevitable fall ...
Not really worth much as advice but I often go and participate in runs I see unjustified (Linc lately f.e.) makes some money and get out quick.
But risk is high..
debt still there,western powers going down, climate change here( whether or not man induced, that does not really matter: more floods, fires and cyclones hit on economies) and cheap oil not so cheap anymore
The problem is: what do you do?
I always remember not taking the first Telstra share offer awhile back, after arriving in australia: I had worked in telco, telstra was not worth that amount, yet th erest is history, I was right but lost money (or did not make money)
however good (and right) your reasons not to, sometimes it makes $ sense to follow the lemmings...
So the question becomes when to jump out to avoid the inevitable fall ...
Not really worth much as advice but I often go and participate in runs I see unjustified (Linc lately f.e.) makes some money and get out quick.
But risk is high..
- Joined
- 2 June 2011
- Posts
- 5,341
- Reactions
- 242
Except the big guys are all having net inflows at the moment. As they have a mandate to be invested and not sit in cash it's more likely they are buying, not selling.
Reporting season wasn't bad, in fact it was probably much better than was expected. No one is saying the world is fixed, it's just not as bad as it was made out to be.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,440
- Reactions
- 6,442
- Joined
- 2 June 2011
- Posts
- 5,341
- Reactions
- 242
Don't get me wrong, I'd like a bit of pullback. I'm twiddling my thumbs, with a pile of cash and nowhere to put it.
skc
Goldmember
- Joined
- 12 August 2008
- Posts
- 8,277
- Reactions
- 329
PM'd you my bank account details. Going to the casino tonight...
Seriously though... even with some pull back it's hard to find something to buy.
It's one thing to trade the momentum, it's quite another to just buy something with PE 20x and hope the E catches up over the next 2 halves.
- Joined
- 2 June 2011
- Posts
- 5,341
- Reactions
- 242
I agree.
I even found myself looking at an antique furniture auction catalogue this morning. There was a lovely hutch that caught my eye, and a shiny panther.
I might have to take one of my long bike rides out to La Perouse this afternoon.
- Joined
- 25 July 2010
- Posts
- 1,120
- Reactions
- 284
Well, that makes me feel a little better. I only started last year in Jan and I've always found something to buy until now... Cash is also piling up for me.
Good to know my thoughts aren't too far off the experienced value-investors...
Julia
In Memoriam
- Joined
- 10 May 2005
- Posts
- 16,986
- Reactions
- 1,973
I see it more as a purely practical and necessary measure, given that I'm dependent on that capital to generate an income.
Re the latter maxim, I'd prefer "be prepared to change your plan if circumstances change".
You'd imagine so. But it is apparently not for many people who profess a disregard for what their capital is doing as long as the dividends keep coming. I do not get this, but it's not uncommon.
